Tesla Q2 earnings preview: 3 things to watch

Yahoo

4 days ago

Tesla (TSLA) stock has pared some of its early 2025 losses, but a now rocky relationship between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump is taking its toll on the optimism that fueled the company's late-2024 run.
Tesla's second quarter earnings report, slated for release on Wednesday after the bell, comes at a time when the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) are surging to new highs, bucking Trump's tariff war that led to broad-based selling and fears of a global economic slowdown. While other auto stocks have recovered, Tesla is still down around 20% year to date, with sector tariffs of 25% on foreign cars and parts still in place.
Now the focus is on the struggling core auto business and the future of Tesla's robotaxi rollout.
Here are three things to watch this Wednesday.
The core
Tesla's bread and butter, despite Musk's embrace of a robot-driven future, is its core auto business. That drives the huge majority of revenue and profit at Tesla.
The company is expected to report second quarter revenue of $22.79 billion, per Bloomberg estimates, a 9% drop compared with the $25.05 billion reported a year ago. From a profitability standpoint, Wall Street analysts are expecting adjusted EPS of $0.43, translating to adjusted net income of $1.513 billion, down slightly from a year ago.
Musk's reputational hit stemming from his political activities, the rise of better competition, and US consumer preferences for vehicles like hybrids have Tesla and the EV industry as a whole worried. For Tesla in particular, weakness in key regions like Europe has been an ongoing issue, and the latest registration data shows US sales sliding as well.
This resulted in Tesla delivering only 384,122 vehicles globally in Q2, a 13.5% drop year over year. The changeover to the refreshed Model Y may have blunted sales. But the question for management is the availability picture for that new Model Y in Tesla's main selling regions.
Read more: How to avoid the sticker shock on Tesla car insurance
Robotaxi rollout
On the bright side for Tesla is Elon Musk's big bet on the future with robotaxis. Tesla and Musk will most likely focus on that business, and this may perhaps point to future rollout plans with more cars and regions.
Tesla has expanded its robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas, with a bigger operating area and likely more vehicles coming.
Musk said the company would expand testing to the San Francisco Bay Area, but reports suggest the applications for those state permits have not been submitted.
While the good news is that the test began on time as Musk proposed in mid-May, Tesla still has a long way to go. Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Waymo, the leader in the space, has been expanding its robotaxi deployments in the US, and Uber (UBER) is doing so as well with its technology partners.
Speaking of Uber, the ride-hailing giant inked a massive deal with Lucid and autonomous software firm Nuro to launch its own robotaxi service next year.
"The earnings call also presents an opportunity for Tesla's robotaxi/AV narrative to shine, which has been front and center of Tesla stock's strength," Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note to investors. "We could see Elon Musk potentially discussing fleet growth targets or expansion plans."
Where's the cheap EV?
A year ago, Tesla said in its Q2 earnings report that production remains on track for new vehicles, likely including a cheaper EV, in the first half of next year.
Investors and analysts are still waiting. There has been no indication or even renderings of a new vehicle, let alone production of a vehicle priced around $30,000. Tesla's cheapest EV is the rear-wheel-drive Model 3 sedan, which starts at around $43,000 without incentives.
Investors are keen to hear more about the development of the long-awaited cheaper EV that Tesla has promised, along with other new vehicles that the company said would allow it to return to a 50% growth rate compared to 2023.
The most likely scenario is not a good one for Tesla bulls — a delay in revealing the cheaper EV.
"Tesla's forthcoming low-cost model seemingly missed its target for 1H25 start-of-production," Levy said. "With Tesla likely to focus on a 3Q pre-buy in advance of the Sep 30 expiration of the US EV tax credit, we believe it may delay the launch of the low-cost model to 4Q, which could be perceived negatively."
Last but not least, Levy had a kicker. With weaker fundamentals in play and more capital needed to fund Tesla's AV/AI rollout, Levy believes an eventual share sale — emphasis on eventual — could be in the cards.
But any talk of a dilutive share offering is not exactly what Tesla investors want to hear.
Pras Subramanian is the lead auto reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.
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