
Gold subdued by risk-on mood after US-EU tariff deal, focus on Fed
Spot gold was flat at $3,336.75 per ounce as of 0736 GMT, after touching its lowest level since July 17 earlier in the day.
U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $3,336.30 per ounce.
The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union in Scotland on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war.
Risk appetite in the wider financial markets rose with European shares advancing to a four-month high, led by gains in auto and pharmaceutical stocks.
Meanwhile, talks between the United States and China are set for Monday in Stockholm amid expectations of another 90-day extension to the trade war truce between the world's top two economies.
"There are two offsetting factors keeping gold in balance. The (U.S.-EU) trade deal weighs on demand for safe-haven assets," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
"At the same time the deal removes some inflation uncertainty for the Fed, eventually allowing the Fed to cut rates later this year, which normally is gold supportive."
The U.S. central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after its two-day policy meeting concludes on Wednesday. Markets continue to price in a potential rate cut in September.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he had a positive meeting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting the Fed chief might be inclined to lower interest rates.
Gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment.
Elsewhere, spot silver gained 0.3% to $38.23 per ounce, while platinum was steady at $1,402.48 and palladium rose 2% to $1,244.73.
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Reuters
3 hours ago
- Reuters
Trump fires US labor official over data and gets earlier than expected chance to reshape Fed
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Friday fired a top Labor Department official on the heels of a market-shocking weak scorecard of the U.S. job market, accusing her without evidence of manipulating the figures and adding to already growing concerns about the quality of economic data published by the federal government. In a second surprise economic policy development, the door for Trump to make an imprint on a Federal Reserve with which he clashes almost daily for not lowering interest rates opened much earlier than anticipated when Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly announced her resignation on Friday afternoon. The two developments further rattled a stock market already reeling from his latest barrage of tariff announcements and the weak jobs data. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (.SPX), opens new tab sank 1.6% in its largest daily drop in more than two months. Trump accused Erika McEntarfer, appointed by former President Joe Biden, of faking the jobs numbers. There is no evidence to back Trump's claims of data manipulation by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the statistical agency that compiles the closely watched employment report as well as consumer and producer price data. A representative for the BLS did not respond to a request for comment. Friday began with BLS reporting the U.S. economy created only 73,000 jobs in July, but more stunning were net downward revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs had been created in May and June than previously reported. "We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. A Trump administration official who requested anonymity said that while all economic data is noisy, the White House has been dissatisfied with how large the revisions have been in the recent data and issues with lower survey responses. The problem started during COVID and has not been addressed in the years since. "There are these underlying problems that have been festering here for years now that have not been rectified," the person said. "The markets and companies and the government need accurate data, and like, we just weren't getting that," the official said. The BLS has already reduced the sample collection for consumer price data as well as the producer price report, citing resource constraints. The government surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 631,000 individual worksites for the employment report. The response rate has declined from 80.3% in October 2020 to about 67.1% in July, BLS data shows. A Reuters poll last month found 89 of 100 top policy experts had at least some worries about the quality of U.S. economic data, with most also concerned that authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough. In addition to the concerns over job market data, headcount reductions at BLS have resulted in it scaling back the scope of data collection for the Consumer Price Index, one of the most important gauges of U.S. inflation, watched by investors and policymakers worldwide. Trump's move fed into concerns that politics may influence data collection and publication. "Politicizing economic statistics is a self-defeating act," said Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute's Roosevelt Forward. "Credibility is far easier to lose than rebuild, and the credibility of America's economic data is the foundation on which we've built the strongest economy in the world. Blinding the public about the state of the economy has a long track record, and it never ends well." Meanwhile, Kugler's surprise decision to leave the Fed at the end of next week presents Trump an earlier-than-expected opportunity to install a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the central bank's Board of Governors. Trump has threatened to fire Powell repeatedly because the Fed chief has overseen a policymaking body that has not cut interest rates as Trump has demanded. Powell's term expires next May, although he could remain on the Fed board until January 31, 2028, if he chooses. Trump will now get to select a Fed governor to replace Kugler and finish out her term, which expires on January 31, 2026. A governor filling an unexpired term may then be reappointed to a full 14-year term. Some speculation has centered on the idea Trump might pick a potential future chair to fill that slot as a holding place. Leading candidates for the next Fed chair include Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and Fed Governor Chris Waller, a Trump appointee who this week dissented with the central bank's decision to keep rates on hold, saying he preferred to start lowering them now. Trump, as he was leaving the White House to spend the weekend at his Bedminster, New Jersey, estate, said he was happy to have the open slot to fill. "I would not read any political motivation into what [Kugler is] doing, although the consequence of what she's doing is she's calling Trump's bluff," said Derek Tang, an analyst at LH Meyer, a research firm. "She's putting the ball in his court and saying, look, you're putting so much pressure on the Fed, and you want some control over nominees, well, here's a slot."


The Guardian
4 hours ago
- The Guardian
Deal or no deal? World leaders walk tightrope in tariff negotiations with Trump
It was grip-and-grin time for Ursula von der Leyen as she sat across from Donald Trump in Scotland last week, with the two announcing a deal for 15% tariffs on European imports that would avert a transatlantic trade war – but came at a stiff price for the 27-country bloc. After committing to a unilateral US raise on tariffs that came on the heels of a Nato commitment to increase defense spending to 5% of national GDPs, von der Leyen then thanked Trump 'for his personal commitment and his leadership to achieve this breakthrough'. 'He is a tough negotiator, but he is also a dealmaker,' she said, as the US president beamed. The EU was one of just a number of parties to strike a deal with Trump before his temporary pause on new tariffs came to an end this week. And like many others, the guiding principle for the EU appeared to be: it can always get worse. 'This is clearly the best deal we could get under very difficult circumstances,' Maroš Šefčovič, the EU trade chief, said. Others had a far bleaker interpretation of the dynamics, as Trump has wielded the threat of sky-high tariffs to cudgel his trading partners into submission. 'It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission,' wrote the French prime minister, François Bayrou. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán put it another way: 'It was Donald Trump eating Ursula von der Leyen for breakfast,' he said on his podcast. Later, he called her a 'featherweight'. World leaders have been forced to adopt a position of appeasement and pragmatism as they've approached the Trump administration, which has swung between imposing staggering tariffs on imports and then announcing last minute pauses and exclusions that suggest there is little rhyme or reason to the White House's tariff strategy. But the key factor for Trump appears to be taking whatever he can get. Countries across Asia exporting to the US were quickest to begin negotiating new trade deals with the White House. Vietnam was desperate to cut a 46% tariff imposed on the country, and Trump early last month announced that he had negotiated a 20% rate with Vietnamese negotiators. Except, it turned out, they believed that they had negotiated an 11% rate, Politico reported. And treasury secretary Scott Bessent this week admitted that he had never seen the deal, which the Vietnamese authorities have never confirmed. Trump reportedly used the trade threats along with other incentives in order to broker a recent peace between Thailand and Cambodia after fighting broke out along the border between the two countries. He soon announced a 19% rate – a significant cut from 49% for Cambodia and 36% for Thailand – which appeared more motivated by international politics than trade considerations. But while many countries in the region will breathe a sigh of relief as they avert sky-high tariffs, some see a new danger in the arbitrary redrawing of the US's trade relationship with the world. 'What we felt during this negotiation is that the US trade environment is fundamentally changing,' South Korean trade minister Yeo Han-koo said shortly after a deal was made to tariff imports at 15%, down from a threatened 25%. The two sides had made a verbally agreement but had not made a formal draft, he said, because the deal had to be struck so quickly. 'I think we are entering a new normal era,' he said. 'So, although we have overcome this crisis, we cannot be relieved, because we do not know when we will face pressure from tariffs or non-tariff measures again.' Leaders who have stood up to Trump are having the hardest time. Among others, Trump has focused his ire on Canada, which he has blamed for the fentanyl crisis in the US, a charge that Canada's prime minister Mark Carney has rejected. Trump on Friday announced that he would raise tariffs on Canada, a top trading partner, to 35%, as tough negotiations between the two sides continued. Carney, who had coined the elections slogan 'Elbows up, Canada' as a signal of defiance against Trump's tariff and annexation threats, said he was 'disappointed'. 'While we will continue to negotiate with the United States on our trading relationship, the Canadian government is laser focused on what we can control: building Canada strong,' Carney said.


Reuters
4 hours ago
- Reuters
Data credibility fears fueled after Trump orders firing of labor official
NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Sharp downward revisions to past jobs data on Friday, followed by Trump's sudden order to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, stoked investor fears about the integrity of economic data and the Fed's ability to read the true state of the economy. News of a surprise weakening in the U.S. labor market last month jolted investors, while revisions to job figures for the past two months raised worries the U.S. central bank may have been flying blind in recent months and may need to play catch-up with interest rate cuts, investors said. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's early resignation from her term on Friday also potentially shakes up what was already a fractious succession process for Fed leadership amid difficult relations with Trump. "Kugler's resignation allows the president to further shape the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in his own image," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs in July after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 110,000 jobs after rising by a previously reported 147,000 in June. The report comes two days after the U.S. central bank left unchanged its benchmark interest rate and avoided signaling imminent rate cuts, dialing back market expectations for an easing at the next policy meeting in September. That changed dramatically on Friday, with odds for a 25 basis point cut in September jumping to around 81% after the data from 38% on Thursday, according to CME Group data. "The Fed's job is becoming increasingly difficult based on the deterioration of the economic data," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. "These revisions are massive and really are a game changer to the Fed's reaction function, and so I think this Fed meeting is one that they'd like to revise." U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said, without evidence, that numbers contained in the July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics were rigged. "In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad," Trump said in a Truth Social post. He ordered that the commissioner of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics Erika McEntarfer be fired after the data release. "It's definitely a case of shooting the messenger,' said Dean Smith, chief strategist at FolioBeyond. "Firing the head of BLS is not going to improve data collection and dissemination … it's going to undermine confidence in the data going forward,' he added. Revisions for May and June came in well above the norm, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. It gave no reason for the revised data but noted that "monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors." May's nonfarm payroll gain was slashed by 125,000, from 144,000 to just 19,000, while June's downward revision was by 133,000. In total, employment over the two months is now 258,000 lower than initially reported. "It is painfully obvious that the U.S. government has an improper model for payroll calculations," said Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management. "If you don't have reliable data, you make bad policy." Spencer Hakimian, founder of macro hedge fund Tolou Capital Management, said layoffs across several government departments, part of Trump's plans to reduce wasteful government spending, have prompted him to rely more heavily on alternative measures of economic strength than just government data, such as credit card data, and data from Truflation, an independent inflation index alternative to official government inflation measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday the labor market remained strong, and that the central bank was still in the early stages of grasping how Trump's overhaul of import taxes and other policy shifts would play out for inflation, employment, and economic growth. "Had those figures been the initial prints a month or two ago it would have significantly changed the labor market narrative over the entire summer," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, in a note. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, dropped on Friday, with benchmark 10-year yields down by a whopping 15 basis points to 4.22% - their biggest daily drop since April. Two-year yields were down by about 25 basis points to 3.69%, registering their biggest daily decline since August last year. Stocks declined too, also weighed on by Trump's latest tariffs salvo. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab lost 1.6%, bringing stocks to their lowest since early July. The deterioration in the labor picture comes amid steep U.S. tariffs on large trade partners that - while not as high as feared earlier this year - are still largely expected to worsen inflation and slow economic activity. "With job creation at stall-speed levels and the tariff headwind lying ahead, there's a strong possibility of a negative payroll print in the coming months which may conjure up fears of a recession," said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments.