Here's why Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley are favourites to drop back down
The three promoted clubs this season - Burnley (2/5), Sunderland (4/9), Leeds United (11/10) - are heading for the fall this time around.
As it stands Sunderland have spent €153m, Burnley have spent €125.65m, and Leeds United €85.4m following promotion; take out Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City, Arsenal and all three are in the next six. Yet the surprise is that the most expensive recruits at the promoted clubs have been midfielders, Habib Diarra to Sunderland €31.5m, Chelsea's Lesley Ugochukwu to Burnley for €28.7m and Anton Stach to Leeds for €20m.Because surely experience shows that goals do more to keep clubs in the Premier and all three clubs look to have major sticking-points in this area.
***LEEDS UNITED will rely on 26 year-old Joel Pirou, playing in the Premier for the first time, to turn four seasons of decent Championship scoring campaigns (Swansea 22 & 19, Leeds 13 & 19) into top flight goals.
READ MORE: Former Leeds United captain sees Joel Pirou and Daniel James as budding Premier League superstars - and the key to staying up
He was the Championship's top scorer last season with those 19 goals but that's an unreliable metric; Sammie Smodics hit 27 the year before for Blackburn and managed just four for Ipswich in 21 appearances last term. Pre-Season Friendly, Aviva Stadium, Dublin 9/8/2025, Leeds United vs AC Milan, Leeds' manager Daniel Farke (Image: ©INPHO/Bryan Keane)
Pirou is still uncapped for Netherlands behind such regulars as Weghorst, Depay, Gakpo, Lang, Malen and recent call-ups Kluivert (Bournemouth), Brobbey (Ajax) and Zirkzee (Man Utd).Daniel Farke's side relied on a combined 21 goals from widemen Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto last term and it is hard to see them have as much as freedom to be up with the attack this term.***SUNDERLAND's Spaniard Eliezer Mayenda, 20, has never been tested in top flight football. Indeed he was brought to Sunderland in July 2023 from France's third division.He has scored eight goals in 45 Championship appearances since and the only top grade games he has played was on loan for two 2023/24 SPL games with Hibs.They will also be hoping for a big return from widemen Chemsdine Talbi, signed from Club Brugge, and Simon Adinga who scored twice for Brighton in 29 games last season.***BURNLEY look like they will set up 5-4-1 this season with all their eggs in South African Lyle Foster's, who has been at Turf Moor since January 2023, basket.There was one goal in 11 Championship appearances in 2023/24, five goals in 24 Premier appearances 2023/24, and two goals in 28 games last season.Moreover it is a fair bet none of Pirou, Ayenda or Foster will reach double-figures without having to resort to penalties.Only one player has passed that dozen tally without recourse to spot-kicks in the last five seasons, Leicester City's Harvey Barnes bagging 13 in 34 2022/23 appearances mostly on the left-wing.Not surprisingly, the Foxes couldn't hold on to him at the end of the season and he made a €38m switch to Newcastle.Leeds United's Rodrigo, remarkably playing under 2,000 minutes, also managed 13 that season but he had a penalty there. The Yorkshire club couldn't hold on to him either and Qatar club Al-Rayyan triggered a relegation release clause.Only one other player from the 15 teams relegated over the last five years has achieved double figures from open play, Watford's Emmanuel Dennis who managed 10 in 2021/22. He was transferred to Forest in August 2022.The statistics are frightening.Five years back, 2020/21, Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United were relegated to the Championship in a season where Harry Kane and Mo Salah top scored with 23 and 22 albeit tallies aided by four and six penalties respectively.West Brom's Brazilian Matheus Pereira was the relegation zone's top scorer with 11 strikes (four pens), Sheffield Utd's David McGoldrick got eight and Fulham's Bobby Decordova-Reid had five.Norwich and Watford had managed to bounce straight back up but there was little improvement in their fortunes and both, along with Burnley, went straight back down again, along with Burnley, in 2021/22.Salah and Heung-min Son topped the charts with 23 apiece, the Liverpool player topping it alphabetically while he also played 233 minutes less but the Spurs star takes it morally as the Egyptian had five penalties.The Canaries' Teemu Pukki managed 11 goals (3 pens), Watford's Nigerian Emmanuel Denis 10 and Burnley's Max Cornet nine.Three seasons back, 2022/23, Leicester City, Leeds United and Southampton were consigned to the lower tier.Haaland netted a sensational 36 goals for City and credit to Harry Kane for his 30 and who was 10 mahead of Brentford's Ivan Toney in third. Haaland and Kane had seven and five penalties respectively.Leicester's Barnes and Leeds' Rodrigo mined a seam all the same both scoring 13 goals with James Ward-Prowse the best at Southampton with nine, albeit two of those were penalties.Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United waved goodbye the following year 2023/24 with, perhaps notably, Burnley having suffered their third relegation in five years.Haaland with 27, Cole Palmer now at Chelsea with 22 and Alexander Isak were the only players to break out of the teens although, again, greatly helped by their penalty count of seven, nine and five respectively.Luton's Carlton Morris was conspicuous with 11 goals but the Hatters star's tally was boosted by five penalties although, to be fair, Elijah Adebayo got 10.
Sheffield United's Olllie McBurnie and Ben Brereton-Diaz both got to six but needed two and a single penalty in each case to make it. Burnley's Jacob Brun Larsen also made six and had a penalty.
Last season Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town lost their Premier status.
Five scorers made it past the teens Salah with 29, Isak 23 and Haaland 21 while Chris Wood, Bryan Mbueno got to 20. And, yes, all five were penalty takers, the Liverpool striker converted nine!
Of the relegated sides, Ipswich's Liam Delap managed 10 goals, two of which were spot kicks, Leicester's Jamie Vardy managed nine with one penalty and Southampton's Nigerian Peter Onuachu contributed four.
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