Area of low pressure off West African coast being monitored for tropical system development
It will not take much for this to become a tropical depression before it interacts with the islands. Regardless of a depression forming before that point, this will remain the focus of CBS News Miami's tropical updates since conditions remain favorable as it moves away from the islands and across the Atlantic Ocean this week.
A tropical depression or storm is likely, if it has not formed already, by the middle of this week as it continues to move west-northwest across the Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
This will be a long-track storm, which CBS News Miami will continue to monitor for the rest of the week and over the weekend.
Forecast models have remained consistent on the track continuing west-northwest, staying north of the Leeward Islands. This could become our first hurricane of the season, with some intensity forecasts suggesting this could even become a major hurricane by next weekend.
Next weekend, a number of forecast models have and continue to show a turn to the north and eventually the northeast, keeping this off the US coast entirely. This has been the forecast trend, but could easily shift back to the west. A few forecast models continue the western movement over the weekend, but they remain the minority.
CBS News Miami will continue to update the forecast and monitor the track forecasts for any changes. Once this becomes a named storm, then our graphics will be able to show the European model forecasts, but as of now, they are consistent with the American model forecasts, with the curve north before it reaches the US coast.
The next named storm will be Erin. We have not had a hurricane yet this year.
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New York Times
41 minutes ago
- New York Times
Erin, First Atlantic Hurricane This Year, Quickly Strengthens to Category 5
As Erin moves west toward the Caribbean islands and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm likely beginning to curve — potentially even away from the United States — the center's forecasters have exercised caution, consistently warning that there is a 'greater than normal uncertainty' about where the storm will go after the weekend. But why? The uncertainty has to do with quite a few factors, but a main one is the output of the computer weather models that help meteorologists make their forecasts. Specifically, it's a type of map called a spaghetti plot showing where a computer simulation predicts the center of the storm will be five, seven or even 14 days in the future. These mapped model outputs get their name from their resemblance to long strands of pasta. The closer the lines are together, the more confidence forecasters have in what the storm might do, because it means many of the models agree with one another. For the next few days, there is a pretty reliable consensus that the storm will track northwest. But how much and when it might turn north or even northeast are still big questions. 'The confidence in the predicted location is less at, say, five days, than at two days,' said Richard Pasch, an expert at the Hurricane Center. 'In the case of Erin, the model spread increases beyond five days, but not unusually so.' 'It should be noted,' he added, 'that the typically greater uncertainty in the forecasts at six and seven days is the main reason why the National Hurricane Center does not currently issue official forecasts at these longer time ranges.' In 2017, Hurricane Irma, which formed in a similar position to Erin's, was forecast to make a similar curve, but instead it kept moving west, hitting the Caribbean islands and eventually disrupting the west coast of Florida. And Erin is currently in a similar position in the Atlantic Ocean to where Hurricane Lee was in 2023, which did make a turn, allowing it to pass over cooler waters and weaken before hitting Canada. Then there was Hurricane Gloria in 1985, another storm with a similar path to Erin's, which knocked out power to millions of customers and disrupted the lives of millions of people from North Carolina to New England. Previous storm paths The New York Times 'I thought a Gloria track might be possible, but it is looking pretty unlikely that we will see a U.S. landfall from Erin,' Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, said on Thursday afternoon. One of the hardest parts of any hurricane forecast is trying to predict when a storm will turn and how much of a turn it might make. Forecasters like Mr. Klotzbach look for a pattern to help build their confidence around where a storm is most likely to go. The computer models typically run four times a day. After each, forecasters look to see if there have been changes from the last one. Consistency between outputs is one thing forecasters watch for. But if there is a significant change, they usually wait for another model run to make substantial adjustments to the guidance they turn around and share with the public. They aren't just worried about where the storm will go — they are also concerned about how intense the storm might become. While forecasters can use one model to monitor intensity, they usually prefer to look at all of them. To do this, they often plot different forecast intensities on a chart that progresses over time. This line plot gives forecasters an idea of what could happen. Similar to the map plots, the tighter the lines are together between models, the more confident the forecasters are about the intensity. Sometimes they might say the official forecast is below the model guidance, or, as happened Thursday morning, they may say the official forecast is below some of the guidance. This suggests that some models indicate Erin could strengthen more than expected over the next five days. As of Thursday afternoon, the Hurricane Center is saying Erin could grow at least as strong as Category 3 by next week.
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Erin strengthens to a major, powerful Category 5 hurricane
Erin intensified into the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday as it continued to organize east of the Lesser Antilles. Now, Erin has reached a powerful, Category 5 status, a major hurricane, on Saturday, according to forecasters with the U.S. National Hurricane (NHC) forecasters. DON'T MISS: All interests in the Antilles, Bermuda, eastern U.S., and Atlantic Canada should continue to monitor the progress of this storm in the days ahead. Erin strengthens to Category 5 storm Reports from an NOAA Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane. Maximum, sustained winds have increased to near 260 km/h. The minimum pressure has fallen to near 915 millibars. Continued and rapid strengthening is expected Saturday, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend. A turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the centre of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. The hurricane's outer bands may affect several of the islands through Saturday, prompting tropical storm watches for: St. Martin and St. Barthelemy Sint Maarten Remaining at sea, Erin's outer bands will bring heavy rainfall and flash flooding risk to Leeward Islands Saturday, and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday. The latest advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) calls for rainfall totals of 50-100 mm, with isolated totals of 150 mm. Locally, considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. Potential Canadian impacts uncertain at this time Forecasters expect a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic to weaken in the days ahead, which will allow Erin to begin turning toward the north through the first half of next week. Interests across the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should closely monitor the track of the storm as it curves through the region over the next five to seven days. SEE ALSO: Current signals show that steering winds may allow Erin to then turn northeast and track around that ridge in the Central Atlantic. However, a trough swinging across Eastern Canada also has the potential to absorb the hurricane and swing it back toward Atlantic Canada. The timing of this trough is highly uncertain at this time, but it highlights that folks across the region should continue closely monitoring the latest updates. The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents is growing. Rip currents a major hazard Regardless of Erin's track, rough surf and rip currents will pose a significant hazard to beaches throughout the Antilles, eastern U.S., Bermuda, and possibly Atlantic Canada as the hurricane both strengthens and grows in size over the next week. Rip currents form when waves hit the beach head-on, creating narrow currents of water that rush back out to sea. STAY SAFE: It is highly uncertain at this time if or what impacts to the U.S. East Coast could be. However, the upper levels are showing the steering mechanism turning northeastward around the high pressure currently centred to its north, and moving northward parallel to the coastline. Always heed the advice and orders of local officials and stay out of the water if there's a threat for rip currents. Don't panic if you're ever caught in a rip current. If you can't swim, calmly signal for help and tread water until assistance arrives. Swimmers should swim parallel to the beach until you're out of the rip current, then swim back to shore. Thumbnail courtesy of NOAA. WATCH: What is a rip current and what makes it so dangerous? Click here to view the video
Forbes
4 hours ago
- Forbes
Hurricane Erin Becomes Category 5 Storm
Hurricane Erin has rapidly intensified to become a Category 5 storm on Saturday, one day after being upgraded from a tropical storm, as forecasters warned of flooding and possible landslides in the Caribbean through the weekend. The Atlantic's first hurricane of the season had maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, forecasters said. Associated Press Hurricane Erin intensified into a Category 5 storm Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast. This is a developing story.
