GCC student enrolment to rise by 1.5 million over the next five years, projects Alpen Capital

Web Release

6 days ago

Alpen Capital's latest education industry report for the GCC forecasts the number of students in the region to grow by 1.5 million to reach 15.5 million by 2029. Within this, the K-12 segment is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% between 2024 – 2029 to reach 12.9 million.
Alpen Capital, a UAE-based investment banking advisory firm, launched its latest GCC Education Industry report which features forecasts on the sector, recent analysis on trends, growth drivers and challenges facing the segment. It also profiles select education companies in the region.
The report was launched over a webinar followed by a panel discussion featuring Alan Williamson, Chief Executive Officer, Taaleem; Dinesh Kothari, Chairman, Delhi Private School Dubai; Ibrahim Al Turki, Chief Executive Officer, Integrated Development Holding for Education and Training and Amjad Al Omari, Senior Director, Alpen Capital. Hameed Noor Mohamed, Managing Director, Alpen Capital moderated the discussion
'The GCC education sector is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by government-led reforms, increased private sector participation, and accelerating digital innovation. Demand for private education continues to rise, supported by sustained economic growth, a growing population, rising affluence, and a strong preference for globally recognised curricula. However, institutions are facing pressure from rising operational costs and a shortage of qualified teachers, particularly in an increasingly competitive and quality-conscious market. GCC governments' continued focus on modernising education—through the integration of digital skills and innovative teaching methodologies—is expected to enhance education quality and support long-term outcomes.', says Sameena Ahmad, Managing Director, Alpen Capital.
'The education sector of the GCC offers a strong growth outlook, with investor interest remaining high, driven by robust fundamentals and sustained long-term demand. This is creating substantial opportunities for both regional and international education providers to establish or scale their presence in a growing market. Looking ahead, M&A activity in the GCC education sector is expected to stay buoyant, as operators focus on improving educational quality, expanding capacity, and streamlining operations. The growing demand for affordable schooling and the integration of Edtech solutions are anticipated to further drive deal activity within the sector.', says Hameed Noor Mohamed, Managing Director, Alpen Capital (ME) Limited.
According to Alpen Capital, the total number of students in the GCC education sector is projected to increase from 14.0 million to 15.5 million at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2024 – 2029. This growth is expected to be driven by continued economic expansion in the region and a steady increase in
population, which in turn is contributing to a rising school-age demographic. Favourable macroeconomic conditions, including high per capita income and sustained government budget allocations, are providing additional momentum to the sector.
Among the various segments, the pre-primary segment is expected to witness the fastest growth, with student enrolments projected to increase at a CAGR of 2.7% between 2024–2029. The tertiary segment is projected to expand steadily, with a CAGR of 2.1%, supported by rising demand and ongoing government efforts to enhance the quality of higher education. Meanwhile, the primary and secondary segments are also anticipated to grow at a steady pace, with enrolments projected to increase at CAGRs of 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, over the forecast period.
The number of K-12 students in private schools are expected to grow at a slightly faster pace of 2.3% CAGR, as compared to public schools which is forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 2.0% between 2024 – 2029. With the exception of UAE, public schools are expected to retain their dominant position in the GCC's K–12 educational landscape, accounting for approximately 70.8% of total enrolments by the end of the forecast period.
Among the GCC nations, Saudi Arabia is expected to remain the largest education market, accounting for 64.6% of the region's total student enrolments by 2029. In terms of annualized growth, Oman is projected to lead with a CAGR of 3.3% during the 2024–2029 period, followed by Bahrain at 2.4%, and the UAE and Qatar, both at 2.2%.
The demand for schools across the GCC region is expected to rise at a CAGR of 1.4% during the forecast period, requiring an addition of more than 2,800 schools by 2029. Within this, demand for private schools is expected to expand at a CAGR of 2.4%, outpacing the public school segment, which is anticipated to grow at a slower CAGR of 1.1% during the same period.
As per the report, sustained economic momentum is expected to not only support public investment in education but also make the education sector increasingly attractive to private and international investors. Furthermore, the GCC population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2024 – 2029 to reach 67.1 million by 2029. This population expansion is mirrored in the growth of the school-age population, which is expected to drive steady rise in enrolment. Rising affluence,
preference for international curricula, supportive government initiatives and increasing private sector participation is poised to attract international institutions, creating a strong momentum for sector expansion and investment.
In terms of challenges, the private operators are facing increasing cost pressures due to rising expenditures on retention of qualified teachers, real estate, and digital infrastructure. These pressures are further compounded in a highly competitive market with a growing number of private international schools. The sector also continues to face a shortage of skilled teachers and educational staff, which is intensifying, given the rapid growth of premium international schools that require high-calibre teaching talent.
Highlighting the trends in the education sector, the report states that educational institutes in the GCC are rapidly integrating emerging technologies to drive innovation and enhance student engagement. With continued investments in EdTech, the region is preparing students with future-ready skills and delivering an inclusive learning experience. The GCC education industry is also witnessing a clear shift toward strengthening kindergartens, nurseries, and early learning programs through policy reforms and greater private sector engagement. Meanwhile, the foreign universities are establishing a stronger presence across the region to meet the rising demand for diverse higher education options.
The GCC countries are making substantial investments in education to develop an ecosystem aligned with global standards. This commitment has driven significant transformation in recent years, particularly through the integration of technology. Strengthening digital infrastructure will be key to advancing the sector further—enabling innovation, enhancing learning outcomes, and unlocking new avenues for growth and investment across the region.