The Ukraine-Russia peace talks meet reality
Russia bombed Ukrainian villages and cities near the front in the hours after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington for meetings with President Donald Trump and top European leaders, and then attacked again overnight — Russia's largest bombardment this month, according to the Ukrainian air force.
The security guarantees promised by Trump remained aspirational and vague. Russia tempered expectations of a forthcoming Zelenskyy-Vladimir Putin bilateral, followed by a session that also includes Trump.
It's a bracing reminder that, for all the historic visuals of recent days, the summits, good vibes, signs of renewed Western unity and Moscow's supposed openness to talks on ending its war on Ukraine, only incremental progress toward peace has been achieved. Putin has not yet committed to face-to-face talks with Zelenskyy. Trump has merely floated an ambiguous security guarantee, without sketching out any details or making any meaningful defense commitments.
And it's a slippery guarantee, as evidenced by the president's various descriptions. If European leaders were looking for a commitment comparable to NATO's Article 5, they didn't get anything close to it. There were promises of 'very good protection' and 'very good security' and 'a lot of help when it comes to security' but no real obligation of any kind. Once chatter about the possible scope of American security guarantees began to penetrate the MAGA-sphere Monday — an issue with the potential to fracture his coalition — Trump made sure to explicitly close the door on the idea of boots on the ground in Ukraine.
It's left Ukraine in an awkward and uncertain position, even after the show of solidarity in Washington. Today's events only illuminated the predicament. While White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Putin has promised to meet with Zelenskyy, Moscow told Russian state news media that there is no commitment to such a meeting. And reports of a prospective venue for a possible trilateral meeting between the U.S., Russian and Ukrainian presidents — Budapest — won't exactly bring comfort to Kyiv.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been a consistent opponent of increased military aid to Ukraine and a foe of the country's bid to join the European Union. And Budapest, in particular, has a fraught history when it comes to the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine — it is the site and namesake of a failed 1994 accord that was designed to protect Ukrainian sovereignty and independence in exchange for nuclear disarmament.
And yet, the harsh reality, writes POLITICO's Nahal Toosi, is that Ukrainians have little choice but to consider any offer Trump puts before them.
'Ukrainians obviously cannot trust Putin, a man with a long history of broken promises. But they also cannot trust Trump, another man with a long history of broken promises. Somehow, though, these are the two men pressuring Kyiv to go for a 'peace agreement' that could force Ukraine to give up a huge chunk of its territory to an invading Russia.'
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's authors at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie.
What'd I Miss?
— Gabbard revokes security clearances of 37 former intelligence officials: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard revoked the security clearances of 37 former intelligence officials, the Trump administration's latest move against Obama-era officials whom the White House accuses of undermining the Trump administration. In a memo she posted today on social media, Gabbard directed the heads of several national security agencies to immediately revoke the clearances of the officials, at the direction of the president, alleging they politicized or weaponized intelligence for personal or partisan gain. 'All personnel are reminded that holding a clearance is a privilege, not a right, and this privilege is contingent upon continued adherence to the principles and responsibilities of our profession,' Gabbard wrote in the memo. 'Any betrayal of these standards compromises not only our mission, but also the safety and security of the American people.'
— Adam Schiff forms legal defense fund: California Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff, a longtime adversary of President Donald Trump, has formed a legal defense fund, amid the Justice Department probe into his finances. Schiff, who led the first impeachment effort in the House against Trump and aided the congressional investigation into the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, has become a frequent target of the president in his second term. Earlier this summer, Trump alleged in a post on Truth Social that the California Democrat 'engaged in a sustained pattern of possible Mortgage Fraud' — an allegation Schiff vehemently denies. 'It's clear that Donald Trump and his MAGA allies will continue weaponizing the justice process to attack Senator Schiff for holding this corrupt administration accountable,' Marisol Samayoa, a spokesperson for Schiff, said in a statement. 'This fund will ensure he can fight back against these baseless smears while continuing to do his job.'
— Air Force chief announces he's leaving post early: Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said Monday that he plans to retire in the fall, a surprise move just halfway into his four-year term atop the military service. Allvin made the announcement in a statement, and did not give a specific reason for leaving. He said that while he plans to retire in November, he will serve until a replacement is confirmed. Allvin is the fourth U.S. military service chief to depart since President Donald Trump took office. In January, Trump directed the firing of Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan, and in February, he fired Gen. C.Q. Brown as chair of the joint chiefs of staff and removed Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti. In April, he fired Cyber Command chief Gen Timothy Haugh.
— White House aims to fast-track key Federal Reserve pick: The White House is working over the August recess to build momentum for a key Federal Reserve nominee the administration wants in place next month. Stephen Miran, whom President Donald Trump tapped to temporarily serve on the Federal Reserve's board, has been meeting with members of the Senate Banking Committee, which will need to green-light his nomination before the full Senate can vote on confirmation. Miran met today with Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), a member of the panel, and had a call last week with Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Miran is scheduled to have additional meetings with senators in the coming days, with invitations for one-on-ones extended to Republican members of the Banking panel.
— Northern Virginia schools at risk of losing funding over transgender bathroom policies: Five northern Virginia school districts are at risk of losing their federal funding after they rejected the terms on an agreement with the Education Department to resolve probes into their transgender student policies. Districts representing Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Loudoun County and Prince William County have been placed on high-risk status, the agency said today. All federal funding sent to these school districts will now be done by reimbursement only, forcing the schools to pay their education expenses up front.
AROUND THE WORLD
A HYPOTHETICAL HOST — Switzerland would grant 'immunity' to Russian President Vladimir Putin if he visits the country for hypothetical peace talks with Ukraine, the Swiss foreign minister said today.
In a post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had begun arranging a summit, albeit offering scant details. French President Emmanuel Macron suggested today that such a meeting could take place in Geneva. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani concurred, saying the Swiss city 'could be the right venue.'
Putin, who has been the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant since 2023 for war crimes in Ukraine committed during the Kremlin's full-scale invasion, would not be arrested if he came to the Alpine country to participate in a 'peace conference,' Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis announced, adding Switzerland was 'ready for such a meeting.'
DISEASE SPREADS IN GAZA — Dangerous viruses that cause severe paralytic illness are thriving in Gaza, where starving children living under an Israeli blockade can't access the food or treatments they need to recover.
For months, health officials have warned that the destruction of the Gaza Strip's sanitation facilities by Israel could fuel the surge of infectious diseases, as seen in last year's polio outbreak. Now, doctors are reporting a surge in cases of acute flaccid paralysis, a rare syndrome causing muscle weakness that can make it hard to breathe and swallow.
Cases in Gaza include acute flaccid myelitis, which mostly affects children, and the better-known Guillain-Barré syndrome, said Ahmed al-Farra, head of pediatrics at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza.
Nightly Number
RADAR SWEEP
THE CODE MASTER — 'Kryptos,' a copper sculpture covered in perforated letters that form a code stands in a courtyard of CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia. Sculptor Jim Sanborn designed the code in four parts, three of which have been solved, but the meaning of the final 97 characters is only known by Sanborn. Since its installation in 1990, the CIA, NSA, and hobbyist puzzlers have been unable to crack the code. People have hounded Sanborn for the answer to the point of him charging a $50 fee to answer questions or guesses over email. Oliver Roeder reports on Sanborn's burden of keeping the secret for FT Magazine.
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Jacqueline Munis contributed to this newsletter.
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