Zohran Mamdani's Chances of Beating Cuomo—New Polls One Week Before Primary
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo held a lead over state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in two new polls of the New York City mayoral race released on Tuesday. One of the surveys gave him a double-digit lead, but the other, sponsored by an anti-Cuomo group, showed him up by a razor-thin margin.
Why It Matters
New York City's mayoral primary is one week away, giving candidates just days to make their final case to voters. Whoever wins will be the favorite in the November general election, as New York City remains a Democratic stronghold.
However, many parts of the city shifted right in last year's presidential election, so the mayoral race will be a test of whether Democrats are winning back Hispanic, Asian and young voters ahead of the 2026 midterms.
New York City mayoral candidate Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (left) speaks during a press conference in New York City on March 24, 2025. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks to reporters in Washington on June...
New York City mayoral candidate Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (left) speaks during a press conference in New York City on March 24, 2025. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks to reporters in Washington on June 11, 2024. More
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images;What To Know
Cuomo led Mamdani by 12 points in a survey released by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank.
On the first round of voting, Cuomo received 43 percent support from respondents to 30 percent for Mamdani.
New York uses ranked choice voting in local elections, so voters will be able to rank their top candidates. In each "round" of ranked choice, the candidate with the lowest percent of support is eliminated until one candidate receives a majority of the vote. By the final round, Cuomo received 56 percent support to Mamdani's 44 percent in that poll.
The poll showed that both candidates would be favored in November. Cuomo led Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent Mayor Eric Adams by 32 points, while Mamdani led by 14 points.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters—including 644 Democratic primary voters—from June 10-16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A poll released by the Center for Strategic Politics, sponsored by the "Don't Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor" campaign, showed Mamdani within striking distance of Cuomo.
On the first round, Cuomo received support from 38 percent of voters to 30 percent for Mamdani. By the final round, however, Cuomo's 8-point lead narrowed, with 52 percent supporting him to 48 percent for Mamdani.
Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi responded to the poll when reached by Newsweek on Tuesday, saying: "I'll be releasing a poll I personally conducted showing the governor up 30 points and will be riding a winged unicorn while I do it. I can't wait for everyone to cover it."
Newsweek also reached out to the Mamdani campaign via email for comment.
Most polls show Cuomo with a lead over Mamdani, who has emerged as a favorite among the city's most progressive voters. He has emphasized issues like a rent freeze to deal with rising rent and housing in the city and the establishment of a network of city-owned grocery stores intended to combat rising grocery costs for New Yorkers. However, some voters have viewed those ideas as less realistic and are eyeing other candidates they view as having more experience.
Cuomo has cast himself as a more centrist option, focusing on issues including affordability and public safety. He has sought to win over voters by emphasizing his opposition to President Donald Trump and establishing himself as the most experienced candidate in the race.
However, his record as governor has drawn scrutiny from some voters. Cuomo resigned in 2021 after a report from Attorney General Letitia James' office alleged that he sexually harassed multiple female employees and created a toxic working environment, allegations Cuomo has denied.
An Expedition Strategies poll, sponsored by Fix the City, an organization that has supported Cuomo, earlier in June found that Cuomo had a 12-point lead over Mamdani (56 percent to 44 percent). That poll surveyed 600 likely voters from June 3-7.
What People Are Saying
Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, endorsed Mamdani on Tuesday, writing on X, formerly Twitter: "At this dangerous moment in history, status quo politics isn't good enough. We need new leadership that is prepared to stand up to powerful corporate interests & fight for the working class. @ZohranKMamdani is providing that vision. He is the best choice for NYC mayor."
The DREAM campaign wrote in a statement: "This poll cements what DREAM has said from the beginning: the more New Yorkers see how corrupt and chaotic Cuomo is, the less they'll rank him. At this stage, not even Cuomo's barrage of Republican funded ads can change that this race will come down to the margin of effort, and remaining cross endorsements."
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket, on X: "I get the enthusiasm, but I haven't really seen any good evidence that Zohran is favored to beat Cuomo beyond spurious early voting numbers with no appropriate baseline for comparison. If he pulls it off, it'll be an upset—he has a definite chance, but it's 30/70 type of odds."
What Happens Next
Early voting has begun ahead of next Tuesday's primary election. Candidates will spend the next week making their final case to undecided voters who could be the difference in the race.
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