US solar energy growth to slow as Washington priorities shift
KUALA LUMPUR: New US solar energy installations are expected to fall over the next five years as the industry grapples with a shift in federal policy that favors fossil fuels, tariffs and other challenges, according to a report published on Monday by a top solar trade group.
New solar capacity will be more than 10 per cent lower in 2030 than in 2025, according to a forecast by the Solar Energy Industries Association and energy research firm Wood Mackenzie.
The outlook includes the expected effects of new federal tariffs on a range of imported materials that are important to solar projects, including steel and aluminum. But it does not include potential cuts to clean energy tax credits being considered in a Republican budget bill in Congress - another major threat to the industry if passed into law.
Tax credits for clean energy projects and factories contained in former U.S. President Joe Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act have buttressed industry growth in the last three years.
But the bill that passed the House last month could upend what has been a boom in the sector, SEIA warned. Solar accounted for 69 per cent of new electricity generation during the latest quarter.
The industry installed 10.8 gigawatts of capacity in the first quarter of this year, a decline of 7 per cent from a year ago but still near historical highs, the report said. At the same time, eight new or expanded solar factories opened during the quarter in states including Texas and Ohio.
"Those are all positive signs, generally," SEIA President Abigail Ross Hopper said in an interview. "Look at all of this that could be. And the Congress is threatening all of this development."
Trump campaigned on a promise to repeal the IRA tax credits, calling them expensive, unnecessary and harmful to business. His administration has sought to bolster domestic production of fossil fuels as part of its energy dominance agenda, which excludes renewables like solar and wind.
The US solar industry is on track to install 48.6 GW this year, but that will decline to 43.5 GW in 2030, the report said.
Demand from corporate buyers for utility-scale projects is fueling industry momentum, the report said, though concerns about federal policy will constrain development.
Residential installations fell 13 per cent during the first quarter to 1.1 GW. The sector has struggled lately with high interest rates, tariffs and less favorable state policies. But that segment of the market is expected to grow between 2025 and 2030 due to rising electricity rates that make it a more compelling offering to consumers.
The utility sector accounted for 9 GW of installations in the first quarter. Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and California accounted for 65 per cent of new capacity.
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The Star
2 hours ago
- The Star
Comment: What can Cambodia offer the US ahead of third round of tariff negotiations?
PHNOM PENH: As Cambodia and the US prepare for a potential third round of negotiations regarding the heavy tariffs imposed on Cambodian goods, the stakes could not be higher for the Cambodian economy. The current situation — where the US maintains a 49% tariff on a broad range of Cambodian exports — is unsustainable for a developing country that relies heavily on international trade. This trade barrier threatens not only Cambodia's economic stability but also its attractiveness as a regional investment destination. The second round of negotiations ended without a concrete agreement, leaving both sides with open expectations and diplomatic uncertainty. As the third round approaches, Cambodia must reconsider its approach and think strategically about what it can offer the US — both as a gesture of goodwill and as a calculated move to regain economic advantage. The US remains one of Cambodia's most important export markets. In 2023 alone, the Kingdom exported over $8 billion worth of goods to the US, primarily garments, footwear and travel goods. With the new tariffs, many of these goods are now subject to nearly 49% import tax — crippling their competitiveness in the US market. Even more concerning is the broader implication: Chinese investors and manufacturers, who had shifted to Cambodia in previous years to avoid US-China trade disputes, are now beginning to pull out. If Chinese businesspeople, who have been instrumental in building Cambodia's manufacturing base, decide to relocate to Vietnam, Indonesia or Bangladesh, the long-term damage to Cambodia's industrial ecosystem could be devastating. It is clear that without a breakthrough in negotiations, Cambodia risks economic isolation and a significant loss in employment opportunities, foreign direct investment, and GDP growth. This is why Cambodia must consider making the first concession. In diplomacy, small symbolic actions can unlock large strategic benefits. Cambodia must recognise that the US is not only negotiating as an economic power but also as a political actor with global norms and values. The deterioration of Cambodia-US relations began in 2017, when the Cambodian government accused the US of supporting a 'colour revolution' and took a number of aggressive actions against the opposition, particularly the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). Since then, several high-profile political activists with alleged ties to the United States have been arrested or exiled. To move forward, Cambodia could consider making a political goodwill gesture before the third round of talks. For example, the early or conditional release of certain political prisoners — particularly those with clear connections to US institutions or civil society organisations — could demonstrate a spirit of compromise. This would not only help repair trust but also provide the US with a tangible outcome to present to its own domestic stakeholders, especially members of Congress who remain critical of Cambodia's human rights record. The US has long maintained a dual-track policy toward Cambodia: one based on economic engagement and another focused on human rights and democratic governance. Unlike China, the US does not provide aid or investment without conditions. The US seeks reciprocity in political values — freedom of expression, multiparty democracy and rule of law. Thus, even as Cambodia hopes for economic relief, it must understand that US negotiators are likely to push for more than trade concessions. They may seek reassurances on political reform, media freedom, and the reopening of democratic space. Pre-emptively addressing these concerns could help create a more favourable environment for the third round of discussions. It is important for Cambodian leaders to see beyond short-term national pride and recognise the broader geostrategic context. While China remains Cambodia's closest political and economic ally, China itself is now looking for ways to stabilise its relationship with the US, especially in the trade sector. China's priority is to show that it can be a strong and credible actor on the global stage. In this context, Cambodia must also demonstrate that it is a 'qualified friend' — not one that simply asks for help, but one that brings value to the relationship. China wants to support strong, stable and strategically useful allies. If Cambodia appears diplomatically isolated or economically weak, even China's support may become more conditional. The best way for Cambodia to prove its strength is to show that it can negotiate effectively with global powers like the US while maintaining its own dignity and national interests. Cambodia's leadership has repeatedly emphasised national sovereignty and pride, which are valid principles. But diplomacy requires pragmatism. By taking a calculated step toward political openness, Cambodia stands to gain not only economic relief but also renewed credibility on the world stage. This is not about surrendering national dignity — it is about safeguarding Cambodia's economic future. The third round of negotiations offers a narrow but real window of opportunity. Cambodia should walk into that room not as a passive petitioner, but as a proactive and responsible partner ready to contribute to a shared solution. The US is not asking Cambodia to become its ally against China. What it wants is clear: respect for democratic norms, transparent governance and political accountability. Offering the first concession — on Cambodia's own terms — could redefine the trajectory of bilateral relations for the better. All in all, Cambodia is at a crossroads. The current trade impasse with the US must be resolved not through confrontation, but through strategic compromise. A well-thought-out gesture — particularly one rooted in political goodwill — could unlock immense economic and diplomatic benefits. Now is the time for courage, not defiance. By showing a willingness to engage constructively, Cambodia can not only win favour in Washington but also retain the respect and support of its friend in Beijing. This delicate balancing act requires wisdom, timing and a clear understanding of what Cambodia must give in order to get what it truly needs. - The Phnom Penh Post/ANN *** Seun Sam is a policy analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia. The views and opinions expressed are his own.
New Straits Times
3 hours ago
- New Straits Times
US solar energy growth to slow as Washington priorities shift
KUALA LUMPUR: New US solar energy installations are expected to fall over the next five years as the industry grapples with a shift in federal policy that favors fossil fuels, tariffs and other challenges, according to a report published on Monday by a top solar trade group. New solar capacity will be more than 10 per cent lower in 2030 than in 2025, according to a forecast by the Solar Energy Industries Association and energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. The outlook includes the expected effects of new federal tariffs on a range of imported materials that are important to solar projects, including steel and aluminum. But it does not include potential cuts to clean energy tax credits being considered in a Republican budget bill in Congress - another major threat to the industry if passed into law. Tax credits for clean energy projects and factories contained in former U.S. President Joe Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act have buttressed industry growth in the last three years. But the bill that passed the House last month could upend what has been a boom in the sector, SEIA warned. Solar accounted for 69 per cent of new electricity generation during the latest quarter. The industry installed 10.8 gigawatts of capacity in the first quarter of this year, a decline of 7 per cent from a year ago but still near historical highs, the report said. At the same time, eight new or expanded solar factories opened during the quarter in states including Texas and Ohio. "Those are all positive signs, generally," SEIA President Abigail Ross Hopper said in an interview. "Look at all of this that could be. And the Congress is threatening all of this development." Trump campaigned on a promise to repeal the IRA tax credits, calling them expensive, unnecessary and harmful to business. His administration has sought to bolster domestic production of fossil fuels as part of its energy dominance agenda, which excludes renewables like solar and wind. The US solar industry is on track to install 48.6 GW this year, but that will decline to 43.5 GW in 2030, the report said. Demand from corporate buyers for utility-scale projects is fueling industry momentum, the report said, though concerns about federal policy will constrain development. Residential installations fell 13 per cent during the first quarter to 1.1 GW. The sector has struggled lately with high interest rates, tariffs and less favorable state policies. But that segment of the market is expected to grow between 2025 and 2030 due to rising electricity rates that make it a more compelling offering to consumers. The utility sector accounted for 9 GW of installations in the first quarter. Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and California accounted for 65 per cent of new capacity.
The Sun
5 hours ago
- The Sun
US, China seek to extend trade truce with London talks
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