
China calls the shots in Myanmar's civil war
The next year the AA led the Rakhine, the largely Buddhist local majority, in an uprising against the Tatmadaw. Fearing this to be the first step in the disintegration of Myanmar, the army and the then civilian government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, sought to crush it. A ceasefire was negotiated in November 2020. After the coup three months later, other ethnic armies across Myanmar rose against the junta, in collaboration with pro-democracy forces. But the AA bided its time.
In late 2023, as the Tatmadaw came under pressure elsewhere, the AA broke the ceasefire. The junta, short of men, then did the unthinkable: it began arming Rohingya to fight for it against the AA. This did it little good: within a year the Tatmadaw had lost most of Rakhine state. Not since the years immediately after independence in 1948 has the military suffered such a string of defeats anywhere in Myanmar.
You might suppose this would concern China, considering its strong relationship with the Tatmadaw and its investments in the state. But no. China has long also cultivated the AA. It has been relaxed about the AA's rapid progress, and the AA has reassured China that it supports the investments. It has taken care to avoid using heavy weapons near the pipeline; and as it has captured a series of pumping stations, it has allowed oil and gas to flow unimpeded.

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China calls the shots in Myanmar's civil war
The next year the AA led the Rakhine, the largely Buddhist local majority, in an uprising against the Tatmadaw. Fearing this to be the first step in the disintegration of Myanmar, the army and the then civilian government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, sought to crush it. A ceasefire was negotiated in November 2020. After the coup three months later, other ethnic armies across Myanmar rose against the junta, in collaboration with pro-democracy forces. But the AA bided its time. In late 2023, as the Tatmadaw came under pressure elsewhere, the AA broke the ceasefire. The junta, short of men, then did the unthinkable: it began arming Rohingya to fight for it against the AA. This did it little good: within a year the Tatmadaw had lost most of Rakhine state. Not since the years immediately after independence in 1948 has the military suffered such a string of defeats anywhere in Myanmar. You might suppose this would concern China, considering its strong relationship with the Tatmadaw and its investments in the state. But no. China has long also cultivated the AA. It has been relaxed about the AA's rapid progress, and the AA has reassured China that it supports the investments. It has taken care to avoid using heavy weapons near the pipeline; and as it has captured a series of pumping stations, it has allowed oil and gas to flow unimpeded.


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