Malaysia may lead Timor-Leste's accession to Asean: Economists
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia could take the lead in facilitating Timor-Leste's long-awaited admission into Asean by 2025, economists said.
This comes as the bloc grapples with concerns over Timor-Leste's underdeveloped economy, governance capacity and increasingly close ties with China.
Despite having submitted its application over a decade ago, Timor-Leste's path to becoming Asean's 11th member remains uncertain.
Several member nations expressing apprehensions about the country's preparedness to meet the obligations outlined in the Asean Charter.
However, economists believe Malaysia's enduring support and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's active engagement on regional matters may prove instrumental in pushing the agenda forward.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan noted that Malaysia has consistently backed Timor-Leste since the country first applied to join Asean.
"Malaysia has been their supporter since day one. The hesitation lies mainly with countries like Singapore and Thailand, who are rightly concerned whether Timor-Leste can provide the infrastructure or expertise to host Asean summits or or just any meeting.
"But Malaysia, I think, being the chairman this year, will fight very hard to ensure that at least next year or maybe even this year, Timor-Leste will be accepted," he told the New Straits Times.
Azmi noted that the urgency is not purely economic, but geopolitical.
While geopolitical competition is creating opportunities, he said Timor-Leste must strengthen its institutions to ensure it can capitalise on them.
"China has been heavily investing in Timor-Leste. Before the country falls too deep under Beijing's influence, economically and politically, Asean should act fast. It is about ensuring Asean's strategic relevance in the region," he said.
Economist specialising in Southeast Asian development Doris Liew said Malaysia may take the lead in supporting Timor-Leste's Asean accession given the positive stance expressed by the prime minister.
"This would be a timely and strategic move, especially considering that Timor-Leste submitted its membership application in 2011 and was granted observer status in 2022.
"The accession process is already underway, and the country has made notable progress in meeting the required criteria. Supporting Timor-Leste's full membership would mark a meaningful achievement for Malaysia's Asean chairmanship," Liew added.
She said Timor-Leste's entry would consolidate all 11 Southeast Asian countries under the Asean umbrella.
Given its geographical proximity and active engagement, its membership would add weight and legitimacy to the bloc.
Liew, however, said as Asean operates by consensus, any addition of a new member must be carefully managed to ensure alignment with the bloc's values and regional initiatives, including the Asean Economic Community.
"The advantages are clear. Timor-Leste's accession is progressing, and the country has shown enthusiasm and willingness to adapt.
"A committed new member could help strengthen Asean's image as a unified and dynamic regional grouping. Still, the challenge lies in the diversity of interests among member states.
"Adding another voice may complicate decision-making and coordination, especially on sensitive regional matters. However, not all experts are convinced of the benefits," she added.
Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun said Asean membership offers little material gain to either party.
"Frankly speaking, there is not much benefit attached to Asean membership for either Asean or the country concerned.
"Asean members largely grow their economies independently, with limited trade volume between each other," he said.
According to Oh, for small countries such as Timor-Leste, Asean membership is perhaps prestigious as it symbolises their acceptance by their larger, more established members.
However, he noted that there is not much benefit to Asean as a whole or to individual existing Asean members that could be accrued by Timor-Leste's accession.
"Moreover, as Timor-Leste's diplomatic posture remains undetermined, it might or might not turn out to be an obstacle to Asean consensual decision making, like some newer Asean members became," he said.
Oh added that Timor-Leste's inclusion may be diplomatically symbolic, but it could also complicate Asean's consensus-driven decision-making process.
"Timor-Leste's foreign policy posture remains unclear, and that ambiguity could one day challenge Asean's unity.
"Malaysia may want to mark its Asean chairmanship with this achievement, but others may worry that Timor-Leste could become a drag, both socioeconomically and geopolitically," he added.
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