Europe's far-right swing will be a test for liberal politics

Indian Express

a day ago

Recent parliamentary elections in Portugal, as well as presidential elections in Romania and Poland clearly indicate two trends in Europe: The growing polarisation in most European societies and, second, a continued far-right surge across the continent.
In a nail-biting runoff election on June 1, Poland elected nationalist Karol Nawrocki as President. He narrowly defeated liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Nawrocki was backed by the nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) and also received support from the administration of US President Donald Trump. It came as a shock to many Poles, as Trzaskowski had received more votes than Nawrocki in the first round, and the country had rejected the nationalist party in parliamentary elections less than two years ago.
This is also a major blow to pro-European Union (EU) Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was hoping for Trzaskowski's victory to advance his reform agenda. Tusk, a former President of the European Council, returned to power in Poland in 2023.
Before him, the nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) ruled Poland for eight consecutive years, from 2015 to 2023. During this period, Poland's relations with the EU became increasingly strained due to the government's expanding control over the judiciary, restrictions on media freedom, controversial migration policies, and its stance on LGBTQ+ rights.
With the change in government, both the EU and Tusk were hopeful about reversing many of these policies. However, Tusk has not been able to govern freely, as the PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda blocked many of his initiatives and appointments.
Although the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, the president's approval is crucial for key policy measures and appointments. Tusk's coalition does not have a big enough majority in parliament to override presidential vetoes. Duda has consistently obstructed Tusk since 2023, and this stalemate is now expected to continue.
In a move to reassert his authority, Tusk has called for a vote of confidence in parliament. He is likely to survive the vote, as his coalition holds 242 seats in the 460-member lower house. The move is primarily aimed at countering calls for his resignation following the defeat of the presidential candidate he supported.
As a relatively large country with considerable influence in European institutions, political developments in Poland have a significant impact on the European integration project. Poland has been one of the major beneficiaries of EU membership since joining in 2004. Despite this, the country has elected a President widely described as a Eurosceptic.
Nawrocki campaigned on a platform of opposing the EU's federalist tendencies and climate policies, rejecting special rights for the LGBTQ+ community, and supporting strict abortion laws. While he advocates continued support for Ukraine, he opposes its bid to join NATO. Some of these views are similar to those of Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Congratulating him on his victory, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated, 'We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home.'
Earlier, in Portugal's parliamentary elections, the Socialists suffered major losses, dropping from 78 to 58 seats. They have struggled since the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa amid a corruption inquiry and his subsequent election as president of the European Council.
The far-right Chega party — meaning 'enough' in Portuguese — had a strong showing, winning 60 seats. In just six years, the ultranationalist party has grown from holding a single seat in 2019 to 60 by 2025. It is now the main opposition. Chega's campaign focused on an anti-immigration agenda and the housing crisis. Like many other far-right leaders and parties, Chega also received support from the Trump administration. Its leader, André Ventura, was invited to attend Trump's inauguration in January.
Luís Montenegro, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and head of the Democratic Alliance (AD), has now been sworn in as Portugal's new Prime Minister, heading a minority government. Both the Socialists and Chega have pledged not to bring down the government. Montenegro, however, has rejected Chega's call for constitutional reform and stated that he would rather focus on the economy and the health system.
In contrast to Portugal and Poland, Romania has elected a liberal, pro-EU figure — Nicușor Dan — as President, following months of serious political turbulence. In the first round, George Simion, leader of the far-right AUR party, was in the lead.
Simion was backed by Călin Georgescu, a far-right politician who had shocked both Romania and the EU with a first-round presidential victory last year. However, after that election was annulled due to allegations of Russian interference, Georgescu was excluded from the race. The move drew strong criticism from senior figures associated with the Trump administration, including Vice President J D Vance and Elon Musk. Vance criticised the annulment of the vote, claiming it was 'based on flimsy suspicions from an intelligence agency' and enormous pressure from Romania's continental neighbours.
Apart from the deep polarisation between far-right supporters and the rest of the political spectrum across Europe, these elections have also revealed how openly the US administration is endorsing certain political parties and candidates. Similarly, the EU leadership is not shying away from signalling its preferences. Meanwhile, Moscow is using its own tools to promote parties and candidates that could undermine the EU's anti-Russia consensus.
The writer is chief coordinator, DAKSHIN – Global South Centre of Excellence, RIS, New Delhi, and professor, European Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi