MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds, Best Bets: Prediction, Best Value Plays
Oddsmakers see Seattle's Cal Raleigh as the favorite in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, which begins tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Whether you're a diehard baseball fan who has been locked in since March or a casual, the annual MLB Home Run Derby is always worth checking out.
The eight-man field for the 2025 derby -- which takes place tonight at Truist Park in Atlanta -- features several interesting storylines.
The intrigue starts with Mariners star Cal Raleigh, who nearly broke Barry Bonds' longstanding record for most home runs in the first half of an MLB season.
Will Raleigh be as effective in this competition as he's been all season?
The odds for both Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz and 22-year-old Nationals left fielder James Wood are 4-to-1 or shorter at most sportsbooks, which tells you that we're looking at a wide-open competition.
How To Watch MLB Home Run Derby
Start time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ESPN2
MLB Home Run Derby Betting Odds
Below are the odds (as of Monday afternoon) from FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 for the eight participants:
Player (HRs, rank) FD DK bet365 Cal Raleigh (38, 1st) +300 +295 +275 Oneil Cruz (16, 43rd) +310 +330 +300 James Wood (24, 8th) +370 +450 +400 Byron Buxton (21, 12th) +850 +950 +800 Matt Olson (17, 31st) +950 +800 +900 Junior Caminero (23, 10th) +1000 +1200 +1200 Brent Rooker (20, 17th) +1000 +850 +1000 Jazz Chisholm (17, 31st) +1500 +1100 +1500
Raleigh's status as the favorite is more than justified given his historic campaign thus far.
He finished the first half of this season with the second-most pre-All Star break homers (38) in MLB history, behind only Bonds' 39 in 2001. Bonds, of course, finished 2001 with 73 dingers, which still stands as MLB's single-season record (and the only 60-plus home run season since '01 was Aaron Judge's 62-homer effort in 2022).
Oddsmakers expect a hard-fought battle between Raleigh, Cruz and Wood.
But keep in mind that last year, Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández won the HR Derby despite entering as one of the biggest betting longshots.
Best Home Run Derby Value Bet: J. Wood
Best odds: +450 at DraftKings
In just his second season in the majors, Wood has broken out for the Nationals. He's currently top-10 in MLB in both HRs and RBI (tied-8th with 69), and he's a popular pick for a number of reasons.
For one thing, Wood's pitcher tonight will be Nationals third-base coach Ricky Gutierrez. Partnering with an experienced coach like Gutierrez could give Wood a leg up on the likes of Raleigh, whose father will be pitching, and Chisholm, whose stepfather will be on the mound.
It's also worth noting that in a tough-to-predict competition like this, line-shopping is essential. The current format of the derby -- which rewards stamina/conditioning as much as pure slugging power -- makes finding value by comparing odds across a variety of sportsbooks even more helpful.
Wood being available at +450 at DK (compared to +370 at FD and +400 at bet365) is a big part of what makes him tempting here.
Best Home Run Derby Longshot Bet: M. Olson
Best odds: +950 at FanDuel
Looking further down the board, one high-upside option with a unique advantage in tonight's competition is 31-year-old Braves 1B Matt Olson.
Tonight will be a good test of how much weight we should put in a hitter's familiarity with the ballpark. Olson knows Truist Park better than anyone in tonight's field after joining the Braves back in 2022.
Of Olson's 17 homers on the season, he's hit nine in 174 at bats at home, compared to eight in 185 road ABs. He also boasts a better batting average (.270 at home, .254 away), slugging percentage (.483 at home, .454 away) and OPS (.835 at home, .825 away) at Truist Park than on the road.
While there's (obviously) no guarantee those numbers will translate to a strong showing in the Derby, Olson's homefield advantage at least makes him a tempting longshot at nearly 10-to-1 odds.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Jason Anderson out for remainder of 2025 SuperMotocross season
Monster Energy Kawasaki announced Jason Anderson will sit out the remainder of the 2025 Pro Motocross season due to health reasons. "Monster Energy Kawasaki rider Jason Anderson will miss the remainder of the SuperMotocross season to focus on his health," Team Kawasaki announced on social media. "The No. 21 has shown the speed to run at the front, but his health has kept him from delivering the consistent results he expects. Anderson and the team have decided it is best for him to take the appropriate amount of time to focus on getting healthy." Jason Anderson out of the remainder of Supercross with 'ongoing health concerns' Jason Anderson's health concerns do not seem to be related to the family emergency that caused him to leave Seattle. Dan Beaver , Anderson's contract with Monster Energy Kawasaki expires at the end of the season, effectively ending their relationship. Anderson skipped Spring Creek last week. In six rounds of the 2025 Pro Motocross season, Anderson scored three overall top-10 finishes with seventh-place results in the season-opening round at Fox Raceway and in the High Point National in mid-June. Anderson also skipped the end of the Monster Energy Supercross season. He did not mount up for Round 11 in Seattle due to a family emergency and then announced the following week that he would sit out the remaining six rounds due to "ongoing health concerns." Despite missing those races, Anderson was 13th in the combined SuperMotocross League combined points with a 61-point advantage over the cutline. More SuperMotocross News Washougal Preview | Betting Guide Tom Vialle to skip Washougal Aaron Plessinger to miss Washougal for illness Julien Beaumer sits out two rounds to heal from High Point crash Spring Creek 450 Results | 250 Results Jett Lawrence again overcomes Moto 1, scores Spring Creek victory Jeremy Martin wins final career moto at Spring Creek Hunter wins Spring Creek Moto 1 after Jett crashed on Lap 1 Haiden Deegan wins intense Spring Creek Moto 1 battle over Jo Shimoda Cooper Webb injures knee at RedBud, out until playoffs
Fox Sports
19 minutes ago
- Fox Sports
Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and History: MLB's 2nd-Half Milestone Watch Begins Now
MLB's mathematically incorrect second half kicks off on July 18, and since we're already on the subject of math, let's talk milestones. There are loads of milestones big and small that MLB's players are on pace for or could reach before the end of the 2025 season, and we've collected the most impressive of the bunch for you here. Is your team already out of contention? Or are you just a bit of a baseball history nerd? Maybe it's both, and you're looking for something to latch on to outside of the postseason chases. From home runs to hits to what could be the worst team ever, we've got you covered. Aaron Judge Yankees' slugger Aaron Judge isn't on pace to set a specific record, no, but he is in the midst of one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of MLB. One with so much going on worth paying attention to that he merits his own section. Judge has 35 homers, which puts him on pace for 59 through season's end. That would be the second-most of his career — Judge is already the AL record holder for the 62 bombs he launched in 2022 — but it would also give him a chance at leading the league in home runs. And Judge will need the homer lead if he's going to win a Triple Crown — something he hasn't done yet. Judge exits the All-Star break leading the majors in batting average (.355), second in homers (three behind Cal Raleigh), and second in RBIs (81, one behind Raleigh). He's also the current leader in the slash stat version of the triple crown, which isn't officially recognized the same way but is plenty impressive itself. Judge is batting .355/.462/.733, and all three of those stats lead not just the AL, but MLB. Judge has 258 total bases, also good for first in the league and puts him on pace for 435. For all of Judge's accomplishments, he's yet to have a season of 400 total bases: there have been just 30 such years in MLB, so he's far from alone in this. If Judge were to get to 435, that would be good for sixth all-time, but he needs just 420 to get into the top 10. For reference, Shohei Ohtani's 2024 with 54 homers and 99 extra-base hits total is tied for 16th with Barry Bonds' 73-homer 2001, at 411. Given that context, a 435-total base pace this late into the season is absurd. Speaking of extra-base hits, Judge has 61 of them through 96 games (and 96 team games). That puts him on pace for 103, which would be just the 16th season with at least 100 extra-base hits. Were Judge to get 103, it would put him in a seven-way tie for the sixth-most ever. Another two beyond that would get him into the top five. Judge has 7.1 wins above replacement, per Baseball Reference's accounting. That puts him on pace for 12 bWAR, which would be good enough for the sixth-most ever by a position player in a single season. In both of his MVP campaigns, Judge produced 10.8 bWAR. Cal Raleigh Raleigh is deserving of his own section, too, as he leads the majors in homers with 38. He's played in 94 of the Mariners' 96 games, putting him on pace for 65 homers. That would be a new AL record, and tied for fourth all-time with Mark McGwire's 1999. Raleigh just needs to hit more than 62 homers, however, and he'll pass Judge as the AL's single-season leader. What is much more likely than either of those things happening — it's not that Raleigh can't go deep 65 times, we're just talking probability here — is that he becomes the single-season leader for catchers. Salvador Perez hit 48 homers in 2021, which led the majors and also is the most any primary backstop has ever managed in a season. Raleigh is 10 dingers shy of tying that with 66 more team games to go. If Raleigh ends up leading the majors in homers like Perez did, it will be a rarity. Johnny Bench led the majors in long balls in both 1970 and 1972. Mike Piazza never did it despite being the all-time leader at the position, and neither did Carlton Fisk. It'll be tough, with Judge right behind him, but Raleigh might pull this off, too. Raleigh does have potential for one more record in 2025. The most home runs by a switch-hitter in a season is Mickey Mantle's 54 in 1961. The closest anyone has gotten since is Lance Berkman's 45 in 2006 — Mantle has the only two seasons of at least 50 homers for a switch-hitter. Even if Raleigh doesn't make it to 63 homers or lead the league, there's still plenty of history to be made due to his position and handedness, even if he "just" gets to 50 long balls by year's end. Home Run/Stolen Bases Club Pete Crow-Armstrong has 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases through 95 games (and 96 team games). The Cubs' star outfielder is on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals, which would make him just the seventh-ever player to join the 40/40 club, joining Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Jose Canseco. Bobby Witt Jr. has made the 30/30 club in the past two seasons, but he'll need to keep up his recent homer pace if he's to do it a third time: of Witt's 14 homers, eight of them have come since June 1. He's already at 25 steals, so that part will be much simpler. Jose Ramirez has 18 homers and 29 steals through 92 games (95 team games), putting the Guardians' third baseman on pace for 31 homers and a career-high 50 steals. Oneil Cruz has played in just 85 of the Pirates' 97 games, which hurts him a little bit here, but he's on pace for 28 homers and 51 thefts. Both would be career-highs, and if he can go on a little power tear there, he might even get to 30/30. Elly De La Cruz hasn't missed a Reds game yet, so his 18 long balls put him on pace for 30 on the dot, and he projects to 42 steals, too. Kyle Tucker projects just shy of the feat at present, with 17 homers in 95 games (96 team) putting him at 29, whereas his 22 steals put him on a 37-stolen base pace. One big game — or two littler ones in succession — would change that equation, though. Randy Arozarena might come up just shy on both, as he has 17 homers and 16 steals. Jackson Chourio is at 16 and 16. Francisco Lindor is at 19 and 15, Christian Yelich at 19 and 14. The Rockies The Rockies are 22-74, with a .229 winning percentage. That puts them on pace for 37-125, which would be a new record for the most losses in a season — four more losses than the very recently anointed record holder, the 2024 White Sox. A .229 winning percentage would also mark the worst of those, as the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics currently top that list at .235. Regardless of whether the Rockies end up as the worst in either or both, with just over two months to play, it seems very likely they'll end up in at least the top five of both categories. Or bottom five, as it were. Home Runs There are five players with over 30 home runs in MLB as the league exits the All-Star break. Cal Raleigh (38), Aaron Judge (35), Shohei Ohtani (32), Eugenio Suarez (31) and Kyle Schwarber (30). Schwarber, despite bringing up the rear, is on pace for 51 home runs. If — and this is a huge if — all five of these players hit at least 50 homers in 2025, it would be the first time that this has ever happened. There have been two seasons of four players with over 50 home runs, in 1998 and 2001. In both instances, there were two players with over 60 homers, with one of them hitting at least 70. Mark McGwire hit 70 in '98, with Sammy Sosa's 66 finishing second, and in '01 it was Barry Bonds' 73 and Sosa once again, this time with 64. In MLB's long history, there have been all of 13 seasons with more than one 50-homer player: 1938, 1947, 1961, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2017 and 2024. There have been just 32 players to hit at least 50 homers, with 10 of them managing to hit that mark more than once. Even if all five of these players don't actually reach 50, the results are going to be significant in some way, whether it's four, three, two or just the one. Mike Trout is five home runs from the 400th of his career. Bryce Harper is just four from 350. Carlos Santana is 15 from 350, but as he has 11 on the year, chances are good he'll have to wait until 2026 to get the rest of the way. Similarly, Salvador Perez is 14 from 300, but has hit 13 so far. He did hit 27 just last year, however. Giancarlo Stanton sits at 433 homers, the 50th-most ever. If he could go deep eight more times before 2025 ends, he'd rank 44th all-time, surpassing Jason Giambi. Another 10 homers for Paul Goldschmidt — he's at 370 — would have him 75th. As he has just eight homers this year, however, that might have to wait. Nolan Arenado, Aaron Judge, and Bryce Harper are all approaching the top 100 in career homers. Arenado needs just one more, and he'll jump from a tie at 101 to a three-way tie for 99th. Judge needs two more to do the same, while Harper needs six more. Once they all get to 355 — and Dodgers' first baseman Freddie Freeman hits two more, too — this foursome will have pushed Luis Gonzalez, Torii Hunter, Ellis Burks and Ryan Braun out of the top 100. For general context on what being top-100 all-time means, just know that per Baseball Reference's recordkeeping, the 23,500th player to appear in an MLB game debuted in 2025. You're talking better than 99th percentile here when you get to the 100 most of anything in league history. Runs Christian Yelich is six runs from 1,000 for his career. Arenado needs another 17 to hit 1,000. Francisco Lindor is a bit further away, at 957, but he's on pace for 107 — he could just get there. Marcus Semien needs just three more runs than Lindor, but he's hit much worse this year and for a team with a worse offense, so that's unlikely. Lindor's former teammate Jose Ramirez might be able to sneak it in, however, as he's 48 shy — the Guardians can't hit, either, but at least Ramirez is a threat to drive himself in. Freddie Freeman has 1,344 runs in his career, putting him 42 shy of reaching Lou Whitaker and a tie for 100th all-time. That's probably a long shot, but maybe he and the Dodgers will get real hot again in the last two months. Hits Trea Turner has 1,464 hits — another 36, and he'll have 1,500 for his career. Amed Rosario is just four knocks from 1,000, while Kyle Schwarber needs another eight. Shohei Ohtani will get his 1,000th career MLB hit with another 20 of them: between Nippon Professional Baseball and MLB, however, Ohtani is already at 1,277. RBIs Paul Goldschmidt is 27 RBIs shy of 1,250 for his career, which would bump him to 137th all-time, while Mike Trout needs another five for 1,000. Salvador Perez is 30 away from 1,000. Freddie Freeman needs another 45 RBIs to make it into MLB's all-time top 100 — he's currently in 126th place with 1,281. Times on base Freddie Freeman has been on base 3,514 times in his career — that's hits, walks and hit by pitches. Another 28 times on base, and he'll reach the top 100, tying him with Brett Butler. The Pirates Andrew McCutchen is 67 away from doing the same. Doubles Nick Castellanos is six doubles away from 400 for his career, a threshold that just 198 players have reached. Paul Goldschmidt is on pace for 37 doubles this year, and if he gets there, he'd jump from a tie for 92nd all-time to sole possession of 81st. Freddie Freeman is already 43rd in history with 533, and on pace for 44 doubles. If he gets there, he'd jump ahead of former teammate and Hall of Famer Chipper Jones for 31st all-time, passing the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Tony Gwynn, Rogers Hornsby, Dave Winfield and Lou Gehrig along the way. Walks You would think that there's nothing else that Freddie Freeman could possibly accomplish in 2025, but there's one more thing: walks. If he gets 26 more free passes — he has 33 and is on pace for 58 — he'll reach MLB's top 100 there, too, tying Bernie Williams. Stolen Bases Starling Marte is the active steals leader with 359, and has five on the year. If he can squeeze four more out of 2025, he'll enter into a tie for 100th in MLB history with Hal Chase. Another 28 stolen bases for Jose Ramirez will put him at 300, though, that's probably an early 2026 milestone as he's on pace for another 21 before the year ends. Wins Justin Verlander has 262 career wins, putting him 41st all-time. He's also been at 262 career wins all season long: Verlander is 0-7. If he can pick up a few in the second half, though, he could make it into the top 40: Gus Weyhing has 264, and Jim McCormick, in 39th, has 265. Max Scherzer only recently returned from the IL, and he's in a three-way tie for 85th with 217 victories. Six more would create a four-way logjam for 75th. Clayton Kershaw is just one win behind Scherzer in his career. Given how much rarer pitcher wins are these days than even during the prime of their careers, they might be the last three anyone can watch the wins of for years — Gerrit Cole is fourth on the active list with 153, tied for 250th ever. Strikeouts Verlander can't pick up a win to save his life at the moment, but he's at least still pitching well enough to miss some bats. Another 17 strikeouts, and he'll reach 3,500 for his career: just nine pitchers have ever managed the feat. There might be 11 sooner than later, however, as Scherzer is all of 69 punch outs back of 3K. Walter Johnson sits ninth with 3,509 strikeouts. With 27 more, Verlander would bump him to 10th. Scherzer, meanwhile, needs another 79 to pass Johnson, securing his spot in the top 10 behind the moving target that is Verlander. For Scherzer, both of these accomplishments are more likely in 2026 given the time he's missed this season, but you never know if he'll flash a bit of the old Max for the rest of the summer. Tarik Skubal The reigning AL Cy Young winner and a favorite for the 2025 award, Skubal leads the majors in both strikeouts per nine and walks per nine. According to MLB's Sarah Langs , no qualified pitcher has ever led the majors in both in the same year. Skubal has a slight lead on Zack Wheeler in K/9 — 11.380 to 11.361 — and a bit more breathing room on the walks side, at 1.190 compared to Zack Littell's 1.315. Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account , and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! FOLLOW Follow your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports experience Aaron Judge Cal Raleigh Major League Baseball recommended Item 1 of 3 Get more from the Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
Fox Sports
19 minutes ago
- Fox Sports
Former Little League star Mo'ne Davis to try out for new women's pro baseball league
Associated Press Mo'ne Davis is not done playing baseball. The former Little League phenom who at 13 became the first girl to pitch a victory — and a shutout — in the Little League World Series, will be one of more than 600 players to try out for the Women's Professional Baseball League set to launch next year, the league said. Davis will join other women's baseball stars like Kelsie Whitmore, the first woman to sign a professional contract with an MLB-partnered league, at the tryouts, which will be held in Washington, D.C., from Aug. 22-25. The WPBL is aiming to launch in the summer of 2026 with six teams and would be the first U.S. pro league for women since the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League — depicted in the classic film 'A League of Their Own' — dissolved in 1954. Next month's tryouts will determine the 150 players who will be selected for the league's inaugural draft in October. Davis' rise to stardom came swiftly in 2014 when she delivered 70 mph fastballs for Philadelphia's Taney Youth Baseball Association during that year's Little League World Series. She became an instant inspiration for fans young and old. She appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated, has her jersey displayed in baseball's Hall of Fame and was named Sports Kid of the Year by Sports Illustrated Kids. Davis graduated from Hampton University in 2023 and has provided commentary on ESPN for Little League games. ___ AP MLB: recommended Item 1 of 3
