Britain can't afford another spendthrift chancer in Downing Street
Nigel Farage believes in fairies. That was the only conclusion I could make, a year ago, after taking a look at the hopeless Christmas list of policies that made up Reform's manifesto.I half-suspected it had been doodled on the back of a fag packet after a particularly hearty afternoon at Boisdale. It was all too good to be true: lifting income tax thresholds to £20,000 while cutting NHS waiting lists to zero suggested Reform's leader takes the Bourbon approach to Trussonomics. Bond market chaos loomed, if Sir Humphrey hadn't packed a confuddled Farage off to The Red Lion first. But flush with his local election success, Farage claims he wants to get serious.With the fourth-place Tories of little consequence, today's big speech sought not only to flesh out Reform's prospectus, but to outflank Labour, punching at the chasm between Starmer's parsimonious chancellor and his austerity-phobe backbenches, appealing to those immiserated by Rachel Reeves's performative fealty to the OBR. The Red Wall – je vous ai compris!Having already committed to nationalising Britain's steel industry, the Damascene conversion of this lifelong Thatcherite to social democracy en route to Number 10 continued with a pledge to reinstate the winter fuel allowance to pensioners and to scrap the two-child benefit limit. On top of this, Farage committed to introducing a new transferable marriage tax allowance on the first £25,000 they earn – on top of his retaining his commitment to hiking the income tax threshold.
Never one to downplay his ambitions, Farage couched his speech in civilisational terms. The UK's collapsing birth rate represents 'an existential crisis for our country'; Reform will 'do everything in its power to encourage British people who are able and want kids to have them'. Yes, he admitted, it will all be a little expensive. But isn't it worth it to get Britain bonking?Farage has alighted upon a grim fiscal dilemma. Spending on the elderly is surging just as the old-age dependency ratio – the number of potential workers per pensioner – is collapsing. Without more babies, Britain's economy will become even more dependent on human quantitative easing – the mass importation of migrant workers to fill the human shortfall. That is an outcome that few Reform voters would greet with enthusiasm, even if they were staffing their care homes.Yet Farage's solutions are just as shallow as last year's manifesto's. Evidence suggests that the two-child limit hasn't reduced birth rates. Questions as to how this largesse would be funded cued Farage's usual waffle about scrapping migrant hotels, net zero and DEI. Sounds splendid. But will tearing down a few pride flags really fund the £50 billion plus blackhole these policies would create? Rather than break from the past, Reform would only hasten our rush towards national bankruptcy.Farage is a useful tribune – a lightning rod for the frustrations of voters fed up with both old parties. But on today's evidence, he has a long way to go before he has a serious plan for government. Britain can't afford another spendthrift chancer in Downing Street. If Farage really is serious about tackling our existential challenges, he needs better policies than this.
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