Where metro Phoenix neighborhoods meet the wildlands, wildfire risk is escalating

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24-04-2025

Arizona wildfire season
Training wildland firefighters| Grass lands| Urban wildfire risk | Investing in high-risk areas (coming soon) Rebuilding or not (coming soon) | Wildfire forecast (coming soon)
CAVE CREEK — Kathleen Abaie stepped outside of her Cave Creek home on Jan. 8, and in the distance, near the regional park, she saw smoke.
Abaie had moved to Cave Creek about a year earlier, but she had lived in Desert Hills for 15 years and was no stranger to wildfires. Now she watched the smoke advance closer to her neighborhood, even as news of the catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles riveted much of the country.
The Cahava Fire near Cave Creek burned about 460 acres on terrain difficult for fire crews to access. The fire did not endanger any homes and was closely monitored by state, local and federal officials, but as the blaze glowed through the night, Cave Creek residents were left with questions about how to protect their homes.
More than ever, urban communities in Arizona face the risk of wildland fire as the Phoenix area continues to sprawl and more housing butts up against the desert.
State and regional fire experts are warning that the 2025 wildfire risk in Arizona could be widespread and intense due to prolonged drought and increased growth of invasive grasses. Moving into hotter summer months, the potential for wildfires will increase.
The brush fire near Cave Creek burned in January, months outside the state's peak fire activity. Abaie and her neighbors worried that many of the region's wildland firefighting resources were sent to California, so she was relieved when a helicopter landed near her home.
'Somebody got in the helicopter, went up in the sky, did their thing, came back down, and then within an hour, all the resources came. But nobody knew all day long what was going on,' said Abaie. 'All we knew was there was a fire coming.'
In Cave Creek, the Sonoran desert landscape is on full display. The homes sit among towering saguaros and palo verde trees as washes, bursting with tall grasses, wind through the communities. On the edge of the Tonto National Forest, Cave Creek is just one of Maricopa County's perimeter communities, where scenic views belie a heightened wildfire risk.
In 2020, the Ocotillo Fire burned through Cave Creek, destroying eight homes and 12 outbuildings. Ignited by sparks from a metal grinder, the fire burned about 1,000 acres of wildland urban interface and required a multi-agency response that included air tankers dropping fire retardant.
The wildland urban interface, also known as the WUI, is the transition zone where houses and other human development mix with unoccupied natural areas. The intersection of structures and wildlands is highly vulnerable to wildfires and the associated loss of property and human lives.
Across the country, more homes are being built on the wildland urban interface, and Arizona is no exception.
Between 1990 and 2020, there was a 51% increase in wildland urban interface area in Arizona, according to research from the U.S. Forest Service Northern Research Station and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The number of homes increased by 122% in the same period, to 1.5 million homes. The largest share of those homes, 557,200 units, were in Maricopa County.
According to data from the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management, there were 12 communities in Maricopa County considered high risk for wildfires in 2023. Some of the highest-ranking communities are those north of Phoenix, including Desert Hills, Anthem, Cave Creek and New River.
Still, the profile of Maricopa County's wildland urban interface is different from that of Los Angeles County, where a range of unique factors contributed to the devastating fires in January.
Maricopa County has fewer homes in the wildland urban interface than Los Angeles County, and the two regions differ in their vegetation types and development patterns. Los Angeles also has to contend with the strong and dry Santa Ana winds that blow into the city from the desert and can increase the intensity of wildfires in the region.
Historically, Sonoran desert plants have not been conducive to widespread wildfires, but in recent decades, an invasion of nonnative grasses has drastically changed the outlook for the state.
As urban development spreads further into previously wild areas, the desert itself is becoming more flammable. Hotter and drier conditions, an increase in fire-causing human activity, and a rise in invasive plant species have raised fire risk in low-elevation ecosystems around Phoenix.
From his home on the eastern fringes of Apache Junction, Alan Sinclair can point to the sites of 11 wildfires that have sparked in the five years since he bought his property.
"I retired here, and all of a sudden, there were tons of fires around me,' Sinclair said.
Sinclair moved to his house after a career fighting and preventing fires for the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Though he considers himself retired, Sinclair still runs his own firefighting and prevention company, Siphon Draw Fire and Fuels.
His property, surrounded by homes on one side and open desert on the other, is the perfect place to practice the fire mitigation techniques he sells. In particular, Sinclair and his crew are working on vegetation management methods that leave desert trees more intact while focusing on the invasive grasses and plants that provide fuel for fires.
Grass is key for fire in Arizona's low-lying deserts, according to Sinclair. In a well-documented process called 'grassification,' invasive grass species have taken over Arizona's deserts, increasing risks for towns and housing developments. Without grass, Sinclair argues, Arizona's native desert plants wouldn't make easy fuel for wildfires.
'I've never seen the desert burn without the grasses,' said Sinclair, who has fought wildfire in Arizona for more than 30 years.
For local governments, the changing vegetation creates new challenges for fire prevention. Apache Junction is using a $200,000 grant to manage invasive species and create firebreaks around the Silly Mountain area. The grant covers a three-year work period, and the city has already had to deal with new invasive species.
'We have a big area of buffel grass on Silly Mountain, and so originally, that was our number one focus,' said Liz Langenbach, director of Apache Junction Department of Parks and Recreation. 'After a year just researching and getting that project underway, that's when stinknet really exploded. And so we have a lot of stinknet out there now, too.'
In Arizona, invasive grasses and plants are causing wildfires to burn hotter and faster, according to a 2024 study by the Southwest Fire Science Consortium. The study cited the 2020 Bush Fire and 2021 Telegraph Fire, both of which started in desert lowlands with the help of invasive plants, expanding to forested environments and burning nearly a combined 300,000 acres.
"It's the transformation of our deserts to invasive annual grasslands,' said Andrea Thode, professor of fire ecology and management at Northern Arizona University. 'And we just happen to have millions of people who live in these areas now.'
On top of invasive species, a decades-long megadrought and a rash of record-breaking heat waves have increased fire risk in the deserts. Arizona fire officials now commonly say that "fire season" no longer exists, with fire risks extending throughout the year.
This year, a lack of rain has limited the growth of fire fuels in the desert, but fire crews are staying alert as drought and warm temperatures continue desiccating desert vegetation.
Increased human activity in the desert has also contributed to wildland fires. According to Cave Creek emergency officials, humans cause the vast majority of wildfires that threaten that community. More recreators and motorists moving around desert areas raise the odds of a fire stemming from a cigarette butt, a tracer round fired by a recreational shooter or a spark from a dragging chain.
"We have a lot more people out in the desert doing things that are causing a lot of human ignitions,' Thode said. 'And now there are these grasses to help carry those human ignitions because it's easy to carry invasive species from place to place.'
Cave Creek's Car #1419, a wildland fire specialist vehicle, has a special backstory. It is one of many new wildfire specialist engines popping up at fire agencies across metro Phoenix. Most of those cars have 19 at the end of their engine numbers, honoring the 19 firefighters who died fighting the Yarnell Hill Fire near Prescott in 2013, the largest loss of firefighters since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
"It's a specialty wildland position. The departments have picked it up. We're trying to protect our folks, we're trying to protect the community, because of what happened with that terrible tragedy," said Jim Ford, director of community risk reduction for Cave Creek Fire and Medical Services.
Emergency managers and fire agencies have been increasing coordination and standing up more resources to deal with wildfires around urban areas. That way, departments can rely on each other for specialized capabilities.
"We all know who to communicate with, who to get a hold of, and make sure we're communicating with each other," said Ron Coleman, senior communications officer for Maricopa County Emergency Management.
Community members are also taking action to prevent fire on their own. Cave Creek City Councilmember Joe Freedman is gathering volunteers to knock on doors and explain to residents how they can sign up for emergency updates on their phones and harden their properties against fire.
A self-described 'extreme hiker' who trekked the rim-to-rim trail at the Grand Canyon in March and who has undergone multiple knee surgeries, Freedman talked to voters at 1,900 homes during 26 days of his run for the City Council.
'There's no better way to reach people than to go door to door and speak face to face,' Freeman said. "A lot of people aren't on social media, they don't read the newspaper, you'd be surprised.'
Freedman's mission aligns with a message that local fire officials were eager to convey at a wildfire preparedness event in Cave Creek on April 9. If residents are diligent about managing their properties for fire, Ford said, firefighters are much more successful defending homes.
"If you give us defensible space around your structures, these guys and gals are fantastic firefighters, and they'll be able to defend them,' Ford said.
For Abaie, the ability to defend her home and stay in Cave Creek is important. Even after watching the January fire from her door, Abaie said she's rooted in the area and doesn't want to leave.
'I would leave because of this,' said Abaie. 'Cave Creek is a beautiful, beautiful town.'
Austin Corona and John Leos cover environmental issues for The Arizona Republic and azcentral. Send tips or questions to [e-mail] and [e-mail].
Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Urban growth, invasive plants put more Phoenix homes at wildfire risk