Asian markets turn lower as trade war rally fades

The Star

4 days ago

HONG KONG: Asian stocks fell Friday (July 25) as their latest rally ran out of legs, with sentiment weighed by strong US jobs data that saw investors row back their expectations for interest rate cuts.
With Japan's trade deal with Washington out of the way for now, attention was also turning to European Union attempts to reach an agreement to pare down Donald Trump's threatened tariffs before next Friday's deadline.
Equities have enjoyed a strong run-up for much of July on expectations governments will hammer out pacts, pushing some markets past or close to record highs.
However, while Wall Street hit new records Thursday - S&P 500 chalked up its 10th in 19 sessions - another round of strong jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve might have to wait longer than hoped to cut borrowing costs.
The 217,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week to July 19 was the lowest since mid-April and suggested the labour market remains tight.
The figures followed forecast-topping non-farm payrolls in June and come as inflation shows signs of picking up as Trump's tariffs begin to bite.
Traders are now betting on 42 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg News. That's down from more than 50 previously.
Meanwhile, a manufacturing survey showed US business confidence deteriorated in July for the second successive month, with companies worried about tariffs and cuts to federal spending.
Trump continued to press Fed chief Jerome Powell to slash interest rates during a visit to its headquarters on Thursday, where they bickered over its renovation cost.
The president, who wants to oust Powell over his refusal to cut, took a fresh dig during the trip, telling reporters: "As good as we're doing, we'd do better if we had lower interest rates."
Trump's anger at the Fed and his calls for officials to lower rates has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank.
"While unlikely to yield anything concrete, the optics of a president storming the temple of monetary orthodoxy is enough to put Powell watchers on edge," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.
"The risk isn't immediate policy change - it's longer-term erosion of independence, and the signal that Powell may not be sitting as comfortably as markets assume."
Trade hopes remain elevated, with Brussels and Washington appearing close to a deal that would halve Trump's threatened 30 per cent levy, with a European Commission spokesman saying he believed an agreement was "within reach".
The bloc, however, is still forging ahead with contingency plans in case talks fail, with member states approving a 93-billion-euro (US$109-billion) package of counter-tariffs.
With few positive catalysts to drive buying, Asian markets turned lower heading into the weekend.
Tokyo dipped after putting on around five percent in the previous two days, while Hong Kong retreated following five days of gains.
There were also losses in Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Manila and Jakarta. Seoul and Wellington edged up.
The dollar extended gains against its peers as investors pared their rate forecasts. - AFP