Under fire

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6 days ago

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Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. T-minus 15 days.
In today's edition:
→ SUSAN HOLT on the PM, the premiers and getting things done.
→ The tariff bombshell — and what comes next.
→ Plus, MÉLANIE JOLY on Canada's changing trade relationships.
LISTEN UP, OTTAWA
ANOTHER PRAIRIE TUNE — As wildfires force thousands from their homes in northern Saskatchewan, the prime minister and premiers are in final prep mode for Monday's high-stakes fed-prov confab in Saskatoon.
Prime Minister MARK CARNEY had already ratcheted up the stakes for a First Ministers Meeting meant to tap into the get-things-done vibe — more on that below — emanating from Ottawa. Carney is under pressure to deliver on a crisis-level action plan.
The provincewide state of emergency that awaits the visiting politicians offers a searing reminder that Canada is in for another summer on fire.
→ Don't look up: Sixteen days until G7 leaders gather in Kananaskis, the mountain resort village no stranger to smoky skies. (We're bookmarking UBC's smoke forecast map.)
— Common ground: The clock is ticking to Canada Day, which Carney has repeatedly set as the deadline to knock down interprovincial trade barriers.
Playbook is checking in with premiers who've booked their flights to the prairies.
First up, New Brunswick's SUSAN HOLT.
MARITIMER IN RED — Canada's third-newest premier heads to Saskatoon feeling bullish about freer trade across the land — but with managed expectations.
'The trickiest ones are the resource-based barriers,' she told us recently, citing forestry and fisheries as a pair of the 'most sticky' examples of provincial protectionism.
Holt recently inked a deal with Newfoundland and Labrador's ANDREW FUREY meant to pave the way for fewer barriers. But not zero.
Provinces have an enduring interest in shielding their own sectors and workers from external competition — say, job-creating fisheries foundational to the place's identity.
'Newfoundland stated clearly, and we respect that, that they have minimum processing requirements for seafood — you catch it in Newfoundland, you process it in Newfoundland,' Holt said. 'We're making the progress we can, as quickly as we can, recognizing that a lot of people in Canada have strong attachments to the resources of their community, whether those be trees or fish or minerals or otherwise.'
— Not a gambler: Forget Canada Day. Does the premier think a barrier-free country is possible by the end of the year?
'Whether trees and fish get tackled this year or not, I'd hate to bet on that,' she said. 'Those are pretty fundamental in certain places in this country, but we're making huge strides.'
— 'Get shit done': Playbook asked Holt to compare former PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU's fed-prov meeting management with Carney's. She didn't take the bait — but did share her observations of the businesslike new PM's approach to premiers.
Their meetings are heavily structured — 'sometimes we go west to east, and sometimes we go east to west' — but the premier did say this about Carney's style:
'He is a succinct communicator. He's a warm communicator. He comes across with a real humble energy that I think the premiers respond well to, because there's a sense of equality around the table that's being fostered,' Holt said.
'But he also has very steely resolve in his desire to get shit done. And that's clear in how he communicates, and how he tries to apply focus to the conversation.'
WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN
Up: Nation-building projects and fast-track approvals.
Down: The monarchy in Quebec, where the National Assembly voted 106-0 this week to cut all ties between the Crown and the province.
Trade war
LEGAL WHIPLASH — Three court rulings in 24 hours. And everything is clear as mud for President DONALD TRUMP's largest trading partners, Canada included.
— What just happened: As our Washington colleagues explain, legal developments have Trump on the back foot.
— Wait, watch, focus: As Trump wages war on the 'activist judges' he sees obstructing global deal making, Prime Minister MARK CARNEY appears laser-focused on one trade goal: Getting rid of all U.S. tariffs on Canada.
Carney and others say there's work to be done to eliminate tariffs not covered by the rulings. Those include Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 that gives the president the authority to impose tariffs to protect U.S. national security.
— On guard for thee: 'We recognize that our trading relationship with the United States is still profoundly and adversely threatened and affected by similarly unjustified 232 tariffs against steel, aluminum and the auto sector,' Carney said Thursday in the House of Commons. — Not to mention: He added to his list 'continuing threats of tariffs against other strategic sectors, including lumber, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.'
— For the record: 'Our position has been that all of these tariffs need to be removed,' DOMINIC LEBLANC, Carney's Canada-U.S. trade minister, said on the latest 'WONK' pod.
'We're not looking to replace this tariff with a lower rate.'
— In related reading: ANKUSH KHARDORI, a senior writer for POLITICO Magazine and a former federal prosecutor at the U.S. Department of Justice, explains why the path forward for Trump's tariffs will not get easier after defeat at the U.S. Court of International Trade.
— Noted in the Brussels Playbook: European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN outlined her vision for a 'new form of Pax Europaea for the 21st century' in a speech in Germany on Thursday. 'One that is shaped and managed by Europe itself.'
Von der Leyen identified four central tasks to bring about independence, POLITICO's NETTE NÖSTLINGER reports: Securing peace by increasing defense spending; strengthening innovation and competitiveness to stimulate growth; expanding the bloc in what she referred to as 'a historic reunification;' and renewing and strengthening democracy to protect member countries from internal and external threats.
PLAYBOOK'S ONE-ON-ONE
SHOW ME THE MONEY — MÉLANIE JOLY wants to make a deal.
'We are overdependent on the U.S.,' Joly told Playbook. 'We need to change that dynamic.'
Canada's new industry minister says she's courting cash from foreign businesses, chasing investors in defense, energy, AI and tech to reignite Canada's manufacturing sector, which has shed 31,000 jobs since DONALD TRUMP slapped tariffs on Canada.
That includes teaming up with Europe to build military goods and equipment here at home.
— Dawn of a new age: 'What we're witnessing right now is the creation of [new] economic blocs and the trade rules are being rewritten,' Joly said.
'There is that geoeconomic competition of attracting investments, and you saw that with President Trump in the Gulf states. We need to do that,' she said. 'It's a new type of diplomacy. It's diplomacy between Canada, but also business leaders around the world.'
— Sounding similar: Joly's plans echo Trump's America First Investment Policy, part of his goal to usher in 'America's Golden Age' by focusing on foreign deals to help grow the American economy.
On Sunday, Trump laid out what kind of manufacturing jobs he has promised to bring back to the U.S. And it's not sneakers and T-shirts. 'We want to make military equipment. We want to make big things. We want to make, do the AI thing,' he said. 'We are looking to do chips and computers and lots of other things, and tanks and ships.'
— Behind the scenes: While we had Joly's ear, we asked what was going on in those Instagram photos she posted showing her smiling with Trump and then later walking out of the Oval Office with a hat that had been sitting on the president's desk.
'This will be my secret for life,' she said with a laugh.
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister MARK CARNEY will deliver remarks at 11 a.m. at the Federation of Canadian Municipalities Annual Conference and Trade Show at the Rogers Centre.
THE ROOMS THAT MATTER
— The Young Politicians of Canada host a national summit at the Sir John A. Macdonald Building.
MORNING MUST-CLICKS
— CBC News reports that Saskatchewan has declared a state of emergency, as wildfires rage across the northern part of the province.
— The Globe reports that Foreign Affairs Minister ANITA ANAND wants to rebuild ties with India, 'one step at a time.'
— The Bloc Québécois has, once again, introduced a private member's bill aimed at ensuring 'full protection for supply management' in trade agreements, ANTOINE TRÉPANIER of the National Post reports.
— Economist TREVOR TOMBE notes at The Hub that Canada might be entering a new era for internal trade.
— Maclean's profiles McGill professor JUAN SERPA, who created an online forum helping U.S. researchers protect their data from Trump.
— Befuddled drivers in Buffalo commonly end up in Canada following a bridge renovation, typically costing them a toll. The NYT tells the story of a man named Victor, who spent three weeks in ICE custody as a result.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to former Alberta Premier JASON KENNEY and longtime Liberal staffer HALLIE STACEY-SULLIVAN.
Celebrating Saturday: Angus Reid President SHACHI KURL, The Trillium's CHARLIE PINKERTON, CBC's ROSEMARY BARTON, CAMERON HOLMSTROM of Niipaawi Strategies, Liberal MP GREG FERGUS, businessperson LEONARD ASPER, former NDP MP PIERRE-LUC DUSSEAULT, former broadcaster VICKI GABEREAU, former B.C. Attorney General SUZANNE ANTON and Terrebonne Mayor MATHIEU TRAVERSY.
On Sunday: Justice Minister SEAN FRASER and former Conservative MP LARRY MAGUIRE.
Spotted: Photos from this week's 'House-warming' party at the Métropolitain.
At Sussex Strategy's FCM reception at Luxe in the ByWard Market: Sen. SANDRA PUPATELLO, Cornwall Mayor JUSTIN TOWNDALE, Liberal MP AHMED HUSSEN.
Noted: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has joined the substacking ranks.
The first government bill in the Senate was introduced Thursday. Bill S-2 proposes changes to the Indian Act.
Movers and shakers: MICHELE CADARIO, a former senior aide to PAUL MARTIN and CHRISTY CLARK, is now executive vice president at Rubicon Strategy … MICHELLE JOHNSTON, a longtime Liberal staffer at Queen's Park and on Parliament Hill, is vice president of communications at Syntax Strategic.
Send Playbookers tips to [e-mail]
PROZONE
For Pro subscribers, check our latest policy newsletter from MIKE BLANCHFIELD.
In other Pro headlines:
— White House insists court ruling won't derail Trump's tariff agenda.
— CO2 storage approval forecast slashed 65%.
— California should end its emissions offset program, researchers say.
— Berlin drafts bill to tax digital platforms.
TRIVIA
Thursday's answer: The Queen Elizabeth II monument is currently located in the roundabout next to the entrance to Rideau Hall.
Props to GORDON RANDALL, IAN FARIS, MAGGIE BAER, MARK LEBLANC, MARY O'KEEFE, MALCOLM MCKAY, CHRIS LALANDE, CHRISTINA LEADLAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, FELIX BERNIER, MORGAN LARHANT, SEAN SUNDERLAND, DAN MCCARTHY, RYAN CAMERON, KATIE FEENAN, LORI BROOKS, SHEILA GERVAIS, PETER CLEARY, SARAH ANSON-CARTWRIGHT, ELIZABETH BURN, JOHN PEPPER, JOHN MATHESON, RAY DEL BIANCO, KEVIN COLBOURNE, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOHN ECKER and JADEN BRAVES.
Friday's question: Why is Hanlan's Point Beach in Toronto celebrated on a new stamp from Canada Post?
Send answers to [e-mail]
Writing Monday's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY