Tropical development possible near Southeast coast as August begins
In a pattern similar to what led to the formation of Tropical Storm Chantal back in early July, a slow-moving front is expected to move towards the Southeast coast and stall, which could be enough to generate tropical activity during the beginning of August.
Disruptive breezes (wind shear) in the region are anticipated to be weaker in early August as the front stalls. In turn, there is a low chance of tropical development Aug. 2-5.
"The good news is that if anything develops, it is likely to move away from the U.S.," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Regardless, as the front moves into the region on Friday before stalling over the weekend into early next week, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will spread from eastern Louisiana into eastern North Carolina. Due to the persistent nature of storms, there will be a heightened risk of localized flash flooding.
Individuals visiting area beaches will need to be on alert for rough surf and rip currents.
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Elsewhere across the Atlantic, two additional areas are being monitored for potential tropical activity.
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently east of the Bahamas has a short window for tropical development through Tuesday. While wind shear is low in the area, there is a copious amount of dry air, which will inhibit how much this cluster strengthens.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave that has emerged off Africa will track westward over the coming days, approaching the Lesser Antilles during the middle to late parts of the week.
"Conditions are marginal for development between July 30 and Aug. 2 as the wave moves west," adds DaSilva. "Any interests in the Lesser Antilles will want to keep an eye on this wave as it moves east."
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season has been off to a relatively fast start so far, with three named storms in the basin. The historical average for formation of the third named storm is early August. Meanwhile, the average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11.
The next name on the list is Dexter. The average date for the fourth named storm is Aug. 15, meaning an additional storm into early August would set this season just over two weeks ahead of average.
AccuWeather's team of hurricane experts expects 13 to 18 tropical storms, of which seven to 10 will become hurricanes and three to five are likely to evolve into major hurricanes, for the 2025 season.
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