US stocks hit another record as Tesla and Nike rally
The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and set a record for the third time in four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by 10 points, or less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.9%.
Tesla helped drive the market higher and rose 5% after saying it delivered nearly 374,000 of its Model 3 and Model Y automobiles last quarter. That was better than analysts expected, though the electric-vehicle maker's overall sales fell 13% from a year earlier.
Worries have been high that CEO Elon Musk's involvement in politics is turning off potential Tesla buyers.
Constellation Brands climbed 4.5% despite reporting a weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It pointed to slowing growth for jobs in the construction industry and other '4000 calorie+' sectors, which tends to hurt demand for its beer.
But the company selling Modelo beer and Robert Mondavi wine nevertheless stuck with its financial forecasts for the full upcoming year.
They helped offset a 40.4% drop for Centene. The health care company withdrew its forecasts for profit this year after seeing data that suggests worse-than-expected sickness trends in many of the states where it does business. It was the worst day for the stock since its debut in 2001.
All told, the S&P 500 rose 29.41 points to 6,227.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 10.52 to 44,484.42, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 190.24 to 20,393.13.
In the bond market, Treasury yields were mixed ahead of a highly anticipated report on Thursday, which will show how many jobs U.S. employers created and destroyed last month. The widespread expectation is that they hired more people than they fired but that the pace of hiring slowed from May.
A stunningly weak report released Wednesday morning raised worries that Thursday's report may fall short. The data from ADP suggested that U.S. employers outside the government cut 33,000 jobs from their payrolls last month, when economists were expecting to see growth of 115,000 jobs.
'Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,' according to Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
The ADP report does not have a perfect track record predicting what the U.S. government's more comprehensive jobs report will say each month. That preserves hope that Thursday's data could be more encouraging. But a fear has been that uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariffs could cause employers to freeze their hiring.
Many of Trump's stiff proposed taxes on imports are currently on pause, and they're scheduled to kick into effect in about a week. Unless Trump reaches deals with other countries to lower the tariffs, they could hurt the economy and worsen inflation.
Trump said on Wednesday that he reached a deal with Vietnam, where U.S. products sold in the country will face zero tariffs and Vietnamese-made goods will face a U.S. tariff of 20%. That helped companies that import lots of things from Vietnam, including Nike, whose stock rose 4.1%. Factories in Vietnam made half of all Nike brand footwear in its fiscal year of 2024.
Other factors could also be dragging on the job market, such as the U.S. government's termination of protected status for 350,000 Venezuelans, potentially exposing them to deportation. That alone could create a drag on payrolls of 25,000 jobs, according to Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, whose forecast for Thursday's report is weaker than many of his peers.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.26% late Tuesday.
The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with its overnight interest rate, held steady at 3.78%.
An unexpected weakening of the job market could push the Fed to cut interest rates in order to give the economy a boost. So far this year, the Fed has said it would rather wait to see how Trump's tariffs affect the economy and inflation before cutting rates any further.
Trump, meanwhile, has angrily been calling for cuts to rates to happen sooner.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed as the deadline approaches for when Trump's tariffs will come off their pause.
France's CAC 40 rose 1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.6%. But Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.6%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.5%.
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CTV News
32 minutes ago
- CTV News
Asian shares are mixed as Trump's tariff deadline looms, while U.S. stocks set records
People walk in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei index at a securities firm Friday, July 4, 2025, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko) MANILA, Philippines — Asian shares were mixed Friday after U.S. stocks climbed further into record heights as the clock ticks on U.S. President Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. Japan's Nikkei 225 recovered earlier losses, gaining 0.1% to 39,810.88, while South Korea's KOSPI index was fell 2% to 3,053.18. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 0.8% to 23,871.03 while the Shanghai Composite index added 0.2% to 3,469.11. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.1% to 8,603.00. India's Sensex index shed 0.2% to 83,039.77. 'Asian markets slipped into Friday like someone entering a dark alley with one eye over their shoulder — because while US equities danced higher on a sweet spotted post-payroll sugar rush, the mood in Asia was far less celebratory. The reason? That familiar, twitchy unease every time Trump gets near the tariff trigger,' Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a commentary. On Thursday, after a report showed a U.S. job market stronger than Wall Street expected, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and set an all-time high for the fourth time in five days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 344 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 1%. Many of Trump's stiff proposed taxes on imports are currently on pause, but they're scheduled to kick in next week unless Trump reaches deals with other countries to lower them. In other dealings on Friday, U.S. benchmark crude was down 27 cents to US$66.73 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, shed 39 cents to $68.41 per barrel. The U.S. dollar slid to 144.24 Japanese yen from 144.92 yen. The euro edged higher to $1.1781 from $1.1761. Teresa Cerojano, The Associated Press
Globe and Mail
34 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Why I Think Viking Therapeutics Is an Asymmetric Growth Opportunity
Key Points Wall Street's smartest money has quietly amassed over $150 million in bullish positions, with Goldman Sachs eliminating all downside hedges. Despite trading near 52-week lows due to biotech industry headwinds, Viking's oral GLP-1 drug shows unprecedented tolerability that could revolutionize obesity treatment. Upcoming phase 2 oral data expected in October or November 2025 represents a rare binary event where the market significantly undervalues the upside potential. Most investors have written off biotech stocks as a graveyard of broken dreams. While artificial intelligence (AI) captures Wall Street's imagination, the biotech industry -- once the crown jewel of innovation -- has been left for dead. But beneath the wreckage, Wall Street's sharpest funds are quietly positioning for what could be the most significant metabolic breakthrough in a generation. A differentiated player in the GLP-1 gold rush Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) is developing VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist for obesity treatment. The company reported stellar phase 2 results in February 2024, showing 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks with the injectable formulation. But here's what makes Viking different: Its drug demonstrated unprecedented tolerability with a 13% discontinuation rate that was no higher than placebo -- a stark contrast to competing GLP-1 drugs. In obesity treatment, tolerability isn't a luxury -- it's key to real-world adoption. Viking's breakthrough with VK2735 isn't just efficacy; it's safety. The drug's 13% discontinuation rate matched placebo -- unlike Wegovy and Zepbound, which see discontinuation rates typically five to 10 percentage points higher than their placebo groups. Tolerability indistinguishable from placebo could expand the entire obesity market -- not just capture share. The obesity drug market is projected to reach $200 billion by 2030, yet current treatments face significant limitations. Novo Nordisk 's Wegovy and Eli Lilly 's Zepbound require weekly injections and cause severe gastrointestinal side effects in many patients. Viking's oral formulation, currently in phase 2 trials with data expected in the October-to-November time frame, could be the first pill to roughly match injectable efficacy without the tolerability issues. Here's what Wall Street might be missing: Viking's superior tolerability profile doesn't just mean competing for market share -- it could lift the roof on the entire obesity category. With no greater discontinuation than placebo, VK2735 could dramatically expand the addressable market by reaching patients who currently avoid or quit treatment due to side effects. An effective, well-tolerated oral option could double or triple the number of patients seeking treatment. The numbers tell a compelling story: Viking showed a near-perfect dose-response relationship, with tolerability no different than placebo -- something no other GLP-1 developer has achieved. Every major pharma has tried and failed to create an effective oral GLP-1, with Pfizer discontinuing its program due to safety issues and an exceptionally high discontinuation rate (> 50%). Viking appears to have cracked the code based on the early data, and Wall Street seems to know it (more on that later). Why is the stock trading near 52-week lows? Viking's stock has plummeted 64% from its 52-week high of $81.73 to around $27 as of July 2. This devastation reflects broader structural damage in the biotech space rather than company-specific issues. Since interest rates have flipped higher, biotech as a whole has been crushed, leaving a bad taste in investors' mouths. The 2022 biotech collapse has created a vicious cycle. Great opportunities are no longer getting flagged for investors, as AI stocks dominate headlines and capture imaginations. Meanwhile, GLP-1 drugs have shown a mixed bag in clinical trials lately, suggesting to some that a top in efficacy and safety is near. But I believe that's shortsighted thinking. VK2735 has shown a differentiated clinical profile, with tolerability nearly indistinguishable from placebo in early studies -- something no other GLP-1 has achieved. While it's far too early to declare victory, the data suggests Viking may have solved one of the key challenges that has plagued obesity drugs. This widespread biotech pessimism has created the kind of mispricing sophisticated funds live for: quality assets trading at distressed valuations. It's the very definition of an asymmetric opportunity. The institutional positioning tells a different story While retail investors panic, institutional behavior reveals extreme confidence. Per the latest 13F filings, Balyasny Asset Management holds $71 million in bullish positions, up 542% from the previous quarter. Citadel owns $32 million, Susquehanna has $36 million, and Jane Street holds $17.5 million. Combined, these sophisticated quantitative funds have accumulated over $150 million in bullish positions. More telling is what Goldman Sachs just did: It eliminated 100% of its put positions while increasing calls by 350%. When one of Wall Street's premier trading desks removes all downside protection, it's signaling extreme confidence in the outcome. These institutions aren't speculating randomly -- they're arbitraging what they see as a massive market inefficiency. Their models likely show the same disconnect: a drug with tolerability on par with placebo, and a validated mechanism trading as if it has a 96.5% chance of complete failure. For quant funds that live and die by probabilities, this represents a rare mispricing opportunity. The divergence between institutional longs and retail shorts has reached an extreme. Short interest just increased to 30% of float as of June 13, up from 26% the prior month -- even as the smart money accumulates massive call positions. For context, 30% short interest is extraordinarily high for a clinical-stage biotech, putting Viking in the 99th percentile of U.S. equities for bearish bets. This sets the stage for a classic capitulation moment, where good news could ignite both fundamental revaluation and a violent short squeeze. A manufacturing partner validates the opportunity Manufacturing is the Achilles' heel of most small-cap biotechs. Viking solved this early. In March 2025, the company inked a $150 million manufacturing deal with CordenPharma -- one of the world's premier peptide contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) -- giving Viking turnkey capacity for 100 million autoinjectors and 1 billion tablets annually, without dilution or costly infrastructure builds. This agreement removes a major overhang that has plagued other clinical-stage biotechs, as well as serves as a clear green flag that the broader market has curiously decided to ignore. After all, such an agreement would not have been signed without deep due diligence and extreme confidence in VK2735's clinical profile. Why? There is a tsunami of demand for GLP-1 manufacturing capacity right now. The asymmetric setup ahead of oral data The phase 2 oral data release expected in the fourth quarter of 2025 represents a rare asymmetric opportunity. Based on the dose-response curves from the four-week data showing 6.8% weight loss, the oral formulation could potentially approach injectable-like efficacy. The full 13-week phase 2 data will reveal how close the oral formulation can get to the 14.7% weight loss seen with the injectable. At today's $3 billion market cap, Viking trades at a fraction of the value created by successful GLP-1 drugs. Eli Lilly has added over $300 billion in market value since Mounjaro's 2022 launch, while Novo Nordisk saw its valuation surge from under $200 billion to over $600 billion at its peak as Ozempic and Wegovy transformed the obesity market. Even with recent pullbacks, both companies have captured hundreds of billions in incremental value from their GLP-1 franchises alone. The market's high bar for new entrants was evident when Amgen 's MariTide showed 20% weight loss but disappointed with 11% discontinuation rates in its phase 2 trial. When the data was released in November 2024, shares fell nearly 5% that day despite the solid efficacy. Yet Viking's parity with placebo appears to clear that bar with room to spare. If Viking's oral drug approaches the injectable's efficacy, the stock could see immediate revaluation to $200 to $300 per share, with longer-term potential exceeding $500. At current levels, the market is implying just a 3.5% probability of success for VK2735. That's absurd when you consider that metabolic drugs with positive phase 2 data typically have 45% to 50% success rates through approval. With VK2735's validated mechanism and placebo-like tolerability, a reasonable probability may range from 45% to 70% -- significantly above the market's implied odds. Even using just a 25% success rate -- below the industry average -- suggests the stock should trade above $100 right now. At $27, the market is pricing Viking as a lottery ticket. The data says it's closer to loaded dice. The risk-reward setup has convinced me to take a leveraged position through deep out-of-the-money call options -- admittedly a speculative position that could expire worthless. But with Viking having about $7.50 per share in cash, even equity investors have defined downside risk in a worst-case scenario. Add in 30% short interest providing squeeze fuel and institutional positioning at extreme levels, and the asymmetric opportunity becomes clear. Time to look past the biotech wreckage Key risks include potential safety issues emerging in larger trials, manufacturing scale-up challenges despite CordenPharma's support, and commercial headwinds such as payer reluctance to cover costly new obesity treatments. But the statistical improbability of VK2735's tolerability profile, combined with the manufacturing validation and institutional positioning, suggests the smart money sees something the broader market is missing. My personal take on the maximum upside? If VK2735 secures oral GLP-1 leadership and achieves widespread commercial adoption, a strategic acquisition could command valuations approaching $750 per share within the decade -- though this remains a highly speculative scenario contingent on flawless execution. A lot has to happen between now and then to make this come to fruition. But the seed has been planted. VK2735 has a real shot at bending the curve on the obesity epidemic. Markets move in cycles. "Returning is the motion of the Tao," as Lao Tzu wrote -- when one extreme is reached, movement toward the opposite begins. Biotech will rise again. Viking offers investors a chance to front-run that rotation -- not by chasing speculative names, but by owning a promising asset with game-changing potential at what may prove to be generational lows. As biotech's cycle inevitably turns, those positioned early in assets like Viking may capture the steepest part of the revaluation curve. Should you invest $1,000 in Viking Therapeutics right now? Before you buy stock in Viking Therapeutics, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Viking Therapeutics wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $692,914!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $963,866!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is1,049% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to179%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025 George Budwell has positions in Pfizer and Viking Therapeutics and has the following options: long January 2026 $55 calls on Viking Therapeutics, long January 2026 $60 calls on Viking Therapeutics, and long January 2027 $60 calls on Viking Therapeutics. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amgen, Goldman Sachs Group, and Pfizer. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk and Viking Therapeutics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
This Growth Stock Has Skyrocketed 225,000% -- and It's Still a Screaming Buy
Key Points Amazon has taken investors on a wild, but exciting ride, since its IPO in 1997. Today, Amazon reigns as the leader in e-commerce and cloud services, while expanding into new markets. This stock remains a screaming buy because of its huge growth opportunities. Imagine investing $1,000 in a stock that seems to have a lot of promise. You watch the stock move higher, then lower, then higher again. However, you remain steadfast throughout the volatility and hang on for the ride. Twenty-eight years go by. You look at your brokerage account to find that your initial $1,000 investment is now worth nearly $2.25 million. This isn't a pie-in-the-sky scenario. Anyone who bought $1,000 worth of Amazon 's (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares at its initial public offering on May 15, 1997, and never sold would indeed be a multimillionaire today. This stock has increased by a staggering 225,000% -- and it's still a screaming buy. Amazon's path to gigantic returns To say that Amazon has taken investors on a rollercoaster ride is an understatement. The stock delivered a gain of more than 2,600% in its first 19 months on the market. By the end of 1999, Amazon was up nearly 3,800%. The good times didn't last. Between late 1999 and late 2001, Amazon lost roughly 90% of its market cap as the dot-com bubble burst. However, the company had already planted the seeds of its future success by expanding beyond books into DVDs, music, gift items, home improvement products, software, and video games. During the first few years of the 21st century, Amazon added more products to its e-commerce platform. Amazon's share price steadily rebounded, too. The company had one of its most pivotal years ever in 2006 with its launch of Amazon Web Services (AWS). It didn't take long for AWS to become Amazon's biggest growth engine. The stock's spectacular gains following the market meltdown in 2008 and 2009 were largely due to AWS' explosive growth. Amazon's e-commerce business also enjoyed a major surge due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Where Amazon is today Today, Amazon sells nearly everything online (including cars, through its partnership with Hyundai). The company is the undisputed 800-pound gorilla of e-commerce with a U.S. market share of 37.6%. Its nearest rival, Walmart, has a market share of only 6.4%. AWS also dominates the cloud services market. In the first quarter of 2025, Amazon's cloud unit claimed a market share of 29%. Microsoft held the No. 2 spot, with a market share of 22%. Granted, AWS is growing more slowly than some of its rivals these days. However, it's still delivering strong growth, with revenue jumping 17% year over year in Q1. Amazon is arguably focusing more on its bottom line than ever before. Its profits soared 64% year over year in Q1 to $17.1 billion. Technology, especially the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, is helping the company boost its profitability. As it has in the past, Amazon also continues to move into new markets. It expanded into healthcare with the launch of Amazon Pharmacy in 2020 and the acquisition of primary care chain One Medical in 2023. Amazon plans to begin offering a satellite internet service later this year once all of its Project Kuiper satellites are in orbit. Why this stock is still a screaming buy Sure, Amazon's share price is basically flat so far in 2025. However, I think the stock is still a screaming buy for three key reasons. First, AI presents a massive growth opportunity for AWS. Despite impressive advances, we're still only in the early innings of the AI transformation. In particular, agentic AI could spur tremendous growth in demand for AWS. I also expect Amazon's internal use of AI will continue to drive higher profitability. Second, Amazon's e-commerce growth story isn't over. CEO Andy Jassy correctly noted in the company's October 2024 earnings call that Amazon has only around 1% of the global retail market. He predicted that much of the retail business currently conducted in physical stores will move online over the next 10 to 20 years. I suspect that he's right. Third, a statement that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos made years ago is still true: "Your margin is my opportunity." I predict that Amazon will continue to disrupt other markets thanks to its innovation and scale of operations. Will Amazon deliver a 228,000% return over the next 28 years? Probably not. However, I think this stock will make patient investors a lot of money. Should you invest $1,000 in Amazon right now? Before you buy stock in Amazon, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Amazon wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $692,914!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $963,866!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is1,049% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to179%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025 John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keith Speights has positions in Amazon and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
