Brace for years of extreme heat, UN climate report warns
"We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett, in a statement. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."
Arctic warming is also predicted to rise at more than three times the global average.
"Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels," the WMO said in a statement.
Climate report by the numbers
80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record
86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above the 1850-1900 average
70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).
Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average
More people at risk
Last year, the hottest year on record, saw the first breach of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which committed countries to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 degrees C.
From this year until the end of 2029, the mean near-surface temperature globally is forecast to be between 1.2 degrees C and 1.9 degrees C (2.2 degrees F and 3.4 degrees F) higher than pre-industrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said, adding that this would fuel more extreme weather.
"With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat," Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter, told the Associated Press. "Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape."
Arctic warmth is soaring
In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming will accelerate ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean.
The report said Arctic warming was predicted to be more than three-and-a-half times the global average, at 2.4 degrees C (4.3 degrees F) above the recent average temperature over the next five winters.
Contributing: Reuters
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The Herald Scotland
2 days ago
- The Herald Scotland
Brace for years of extreme heat, UN climate report warns
"We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett, in a statement. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet." Arctic warming is also predicted to rise at more than three times the global average. "Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels," the WMO said in a statement. Climate report by the numbers 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record 86% chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above the 1850-1900 average 70% chance that 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Arctic warming predicted to continue to outstrip global average More people at risk Last year, the hottest year on record, saw the first breach of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which committed countries to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 degrees C. From this year until the end of 2029, the mean near-surface temperature globally is forecast to be between 1.2 degrees C and 1.9 degrees C (2.2 degrees F and 3.4 degrees F) higher than pre-industrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said, adding that this would fuel more extreme weather. "With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5 degrees C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat," Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter, told the Associated Press. "Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape." Arctic warmth is soaring In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming will accelerate ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean. The report said Arctic warming was predicted to be more than three-and-a-half times the global average, at 2.4 degrees C (4.3 degrees F) above the recent average temperature over the next five winters. Contributing: Reuters
Reuters
4 days ago
- Reuters
Arctic warming seen at three times global average in years ahead, UN weather agency says
GENEVA, May 28 (Reuters) - The world is expected to experience more record temperatures over the next five years, with Arctic warming predicted at more than three times the global average, a new report by the U.N. weather agency said on Wednesday. There is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will see record heat, with a high likelihood that average warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to the report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Last year, the hottest year on record, saw the first breach of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which committed countries to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 C. From this year until the end of 2029, the mean near-surface temperature globally is forecast to be between 1.2 C and 1.9 C higher than pre-industrial levels of the years 1850-1900, the WMO said, adding that this would fuel more extreme weather. "Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels," it said in a statement. In the Arctic, the above-average projected warming will accelerate ice melt in the Arctic and northwest Pacific Ocean. The report said Arctic warming was predicted to be more than three-and-a-half times the global average, at 2.4 C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period over the next five winters. Overall global temperatures will remain at or near record levels until the end of the decade, the WMO report said. Above-average rainfall is forecast in parts of the world including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, for the months between May and September between 2025 and 2029, while drier-than-average conditions are foreseen this season over the Amazon, according to the weather agency.
The Herald Scotland
4 days ago
- The Herald Scotland
Global temperatures likely to be above 1.5C threshold over next five years
And the analysis from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK's Met Office finds a 70% chance that the five-year global temperature average will be more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will set a new record for global temperatures, the analysis shows. And for the first time, climate models have shown there is a possibility that the world's global average temperature could exceed 2C above pre-industrial levels before 2030, although the scientists behind the analysis said it was 'exceptionally unlikely', with around only a 1% chance it could happen. The long-term predictions suggest enhanced rainfall in some of the next five years which could lead to flooding (Joe Giddens/PA) The scientists also warn that northern Europe could see some very wet winters over the next five years, which is one of the key climate hazards for the region, bringing with it the risk of flooding. In the global Paris climate treaty, countries committed to action to curb global warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to curb rises to 1.5C in a bid to avoid the worst impacts of rising sea levels, drought, floods, heatwaves and extreme storms brought on by climate change. The world's average temperature exceeded 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average for the first time in 2024 as an El Nino climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific pushed up temperatures on top of human-caused global warming. The likelihood of the next five years being above 1.5C does not mean the threshold has been permanently breached, as the figures for long-term warming are averaged over 20 years. But the scientists suggested warming was now around 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, measured from a baseline of 1850-1900 before global large-scale burning of fossil fuels took off. And the Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife said 'these very latest predictions suggest we are very close now to having 1.5C years commonplace'. 'We've had one in 2024, but they're increasing in frequency and we are going to see more of these,' he said, pointing to the 86% chance of seeing another year reaching 1.5C above the 1850-1900 baseline in the next five years. 'These are shocking statistics and there is even a chance now, and it's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions, of a 2C year, which would be completely unprecedented. 'That is still exceptionally unlikely, more like a 1% chance of seeing that over the coming five years, but it is now possible. 'That was effectively impossible just a few years ago.' The global annual to decadal climate update is issued annually by the WMO and is produced by the Met Office. It also finds that rain patterns for May to September 2025-2029 are expected to be wetter than the recent average for the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia and dry for the time of year over the Amazon. Arctic warming is predicted to continue exceeding the global average, with impacts on wildlife and communities in the region. WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett said: 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. 'Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.'
