Can UnitedHealth Stock Hit $552 in 2025?

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is a major healthcare company that provides health insurance through UnitedHealthcare and health services via Optum, serving over 50 million people in the U.S. In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenues of $109.6 billion. Recently, it has come under legal scrutiny as the U.S. Department of Justice is reportedly investigating possible Medicare fraud related to its Medicare Advantage business, though UnitedHealth says it has not been officially notified of any investigation.
At the same time, the Federal Trade Commission has filed a lawsuit against pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), including those linked to UnitedHealth, accusing them of inflating insulin prices through rebate schemes. On the economic front, recent actions by the U.S. government aim to lower drug prices and protect American pharmaceutical innovation, signaling increased regulatory scrutiny on healthcare companies. Still, analysts remain confident, keeping a 'Strong Buy' consensus rating and a $392.59 average price target on UnitedHealth.
Some analysts have even higher hopes for a UNH rebound - like Piper Sandler, which expects the insurance giant to reach $552 per share.
UnitedHealth's Recent Financials
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) continues to deliver value to shareholders with an annual dividend of $8.40 per share, offering a yield of 2.82%. The company's market capitalization stands strong at about $270 billion, reflecting its dominant position in the healthcare industry.
However, the stock has dropped 40% YTD and is down 4% over the past 5 years, significantly outperforming the broader market's returns over both time frames.
Given that depressed price action, UnitedHealth's valuation remains cheap, with a forward adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 13.05 - about a 37% discount to its own 5-year average.
On April 17, UnitedHealth reported first-quarter earnings of $6.85 per share, or $7.20 on an adjusted basis, with revenues climbing $9.8 billion year-over-year to $109.6 billion. The number of consumers served by UnitedHealthcare grew by 780,000 so far this year, while Optum Health expects to add 650,000 new value-based care patients in 2025.
The company's medical care ratio rose slightly to 84.8% from 84.3% last year, mainly due to increased senior care activity and Medicare funding changes. Operating costs improved, dropping to 12.4% from 14.1%, thanks to efficiencies across UnitedHealthcare and Optum. Cash flow from operations hit $5.5 billion, with nearly $5 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, resulting in a strong return on equity of 26.8%.
Meanwhile, Optum Health generated $25.3 billion in revenue, although growth was partially offset by contract changes and shifts in member profiles. Optum Insight brought in $4.6 billion and holds a revenue backlog of $32.9 billion, with new AI-powered claims processing tools boosting productivity by over 20%. Optum Rx also saw strong results, with revenues rising to $35.1 billion, with adjusted prescriptions increasing to 408 million from 395 million last year.
UnitedHealth's Next Chapter
UnitedHealth Group's next chapter begins with a significant leadership change and a clear signal of confidence from its top executives. On May 13, CEO Andrew Witty stepped down unexpectedly for personal reasons, and the company suspended its full-year financial outlook due to higher-than-anticipated medical costs, particularly in Medicare Advantage. Stepping in immediately is Stephen Hemsley, who previously led UnitedHealth from 2006 to 2017 and remains chairman of the board. Hemsley's return brings a seasoned hand familiar with steering the company through growth and challenges alike.
Demonstrating strong conviction in UnitedHealth's future, Hemsley purchased approximately $25 million worth of shares on May 16, acquiring 86,700 shares at an average price of $288.57. Alongside him, President and CFO John F. Rex also invested nearly $5 million in stock, buying 17,175 shares. This cluster of insider buying sends a powerful message to the market.
Wall Street's Take
The company also lowered its full-year earnings outlook due to higher medical costs and slower-than-expected growth in some areas. Outgoing CEO Andrew Witty summed it up, saying, 'UnitedHealth Group grew to serve more people more comprehensively but did not perform up to our expectations, and we are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead.'
Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan reaffirmed her 'Overweight' rating on UNH, with a $552 price target that implies potential 82% upside. Tassan cited the recent CEO transition as a key catalyst, expressing confidence that Hemsley's return will stabilize operations and help the company navigate current challenges.
'We believe Mr. Hemsley is the right person to turnaround UNH through repricing at UHC and the standardization of care delivery around best practices at Optum Health,' wrote Hassan, adding: "The company has the assets to control trend, improve clinical outcomes, and optimize the healthcare experience for providers and patients alike. We think Mr. Hemsley can realize this potential."
Wall Street's consensus on UNH stock is overwhelmingly positive. All 24 surveyed analysts have assigned a 'Strong Buy' rating, with the average price target at $392.59. This implies roughly a 30% upside from the current trading price.
Conclusion
Can UnitedHealth stock hit $552 in 2025? While it's an ambitious target, the company's strong fundamentals, leadership changes, and analyst optimism make it possible, but not without challenges. Given the current headwinds and legal pressures, a steady recovery toward the mid-$300s seems more likely in the near term. Still, if UnitedHealth executes well on cost management and growth initiatives, reaching that $552 mark isn't out of the question.