logo
Trading Day: Ending on another high

Trading Day: Ending on another high

Reuters5 days ago
ORLANDO, Florida, July 25 (Reuters) - - TRADING DAY
Making sense of the forces driving global markets
By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist
I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com, opens new tab. You can also follow me at @ReutersJamie and @reutersjamie.bsky.social.
For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the week ended on Friday as it began on Monday: new highs on growing confidence that the U.S. will strike favorable trade deals with major trading partners and that tariffs won't choke growth, and optimism around the earnings-boosting power of artificial intelligence.
This offset some less encouraging signals from U.S. and European earnings about the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty. But the bulls are in control, it seems, and markets go into next week's heavy event risk at or near their all-time highs.
This Week's Key Market Moves
Ending on another high
The week just ended saw a wave of record stock market highs on Wall Street and around the world as investors cheered the US-Japan trade deal and a raft of corporate earnings results. Next week will be packed with even more market-sensitive events.
Policy decisions from the Fed and other major central banks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, U.S. PCE inflation, earnings from four of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants, and Washington's August 1 tariff deadline for most countries await.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm to discuss extending the August 12 deadline for reaching a trade deal. This will be U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's third round of talks with his Chinese counterparts
That's a lot to be heaped onto investors' plate, and one wonders how they will digest it all. It wouldn't be a surprise if market volatility picked up from surprisingly low levels - the VIX index is the lowest in five months, and the Treasury market's MOVE index is near its recent three and a half-year low.
Meanwhile, demand for U.S. government debt will be tested as the Treasury auctions $173 billion of notes in the 2-7 year part of the curve. Recent auctions of longer-dated bonds have drawn strong demand and foreign private sector investors bought huge quantities of Treasuries in May, which bodes well.
But the sales come as Treasury also announces its quarterly refunding plans, a reminder that investors will have around $1 trillion of new debt to absorb by year end, an increasing share of that in bills.
Chart of the Week
What's driving the rally on Wall Street? Lots of things, including tariff relief, trade deals, and renewed optimism around AI. One potential red flag, however, is the amount of leverage fueling it.
Figures from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) show that margin debt in U.S. stocks has crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. This comprises retail and institutional investors, but is thought to be more skewed toward the retail cohort.
Of course, investors' margin debt should rise over time in line with inflation and the underlying equity indices. But it's a marker.
Here are some of the best things I read this week:
What could move markets on Monday?
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

US to impose 15% tariffs on South Korea as part of trade deal, Donald Trump says
US to impose 15% tariffs on South Korea as part of trade deal, Donald Trump says

The Guardian

time18 minutes ago

  • The Guardian

US to impose 15% tariffs on South Korea as part of trade deal, Donald Trump says

President Donald Trump has said the US will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea as part of an agreement with the Asian trading partner that avoids even higher levies. 'I am pleased to announce that the United States of America has agreed to a Full and Complete Trade Deal with the Republic of Korea,' Trump said on Truth Social on Wednesday. The South Korean president, Lee Jae Myung, said on Thursday the deal would put South Korea on an equal or better footing compared with other countries. He also said the countries had agreed to set up a $350bn investment fund, out of which $150bn was aimed at a shipbuilding partnership. Trump had said that as part of the arrangement, South Korea would invest $350bn in the US in projects selected by him and purchase $100bn of liquefied natural gas and other energy products. It was not immediately clear how the investment deals would be structured or over what time frame. Trump said additional investments would be announced later. Lee would visit the White House 'within the next two weeks' for a meeting with Trump, the US president added. He also said South Korea would accept American products – including cars, trucks and agriculture – into its markets and impose no import duties on them.

Ice entices new recruits with patriotism pitch and pledge of $50,000 signing bonuses
Ice entices new recruits with patriotism pitch and pledge of $50,000 signing bonuses

The Guardian

time21 minutes ago

  • The Guardian

Ice entices new recruits with patriotism pitch and pledge of $50,000 signing bonuses

The agency responsible for carrying out Donald Trump's mass deportations is launching a recruiting campaign to entice 'brave and heroic Americans' to serve as new deportation officers, lawyers and investigators as the government gears up for a major expansion of immigration enforcement thanks to a recent infusion of money from Congress. The icing on the cake: a promise of up to $50,000 in signing bonuses. The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement campaign, which rolled out late Tuesday, recalls recruiting posters from the second world war with images of Uncle Sam and the words 'AMERICA NEEDS YOU.' There also are photos of the US president and top homeland security officials with the words 'DEFEND THE HOMELAND' across the images. 'Your country is calling you to serve at ICE,' said homeland security secretary Kristi Noem in a news release. 'This is a defining moment in our nation's history. Your skills, your experience, and your courage have never been more essential. Together, we must defend the homeland.' In addition to appealing to prospective applicants' patriotic fervor, homeland security is making a pocketbook pitch. The agency is promising up to $50,000 in signing bonuses, the potential for lots of overtime for deportation officers and other benefits such as loan repayment or forgiveness options. All of this is made possible by a big infusion of money to Ice. The package of tax breaks and spending cuts that Trump signed into law this month includes about $170bn for border security and immigration enforcement, spread out over five years. Ice is set to get $76.5bn, nearly 10 times its current annual budget. About $45bn will go toward increasing detention capacity. Nearly $30bn is for hiring 10,000 more staff so the agency can meet its goal of 1m annual deportations. New hires include deportation officers responsible for tracking down, arresting and removing people who the administration determines no longer have the right to remain in the United States. Under the Republican president, those officers are high-profile roles – making arrests at immigration courts, in the streets and at businesses. They often are criticized by immigration activists and Democratic lawmakers for wearing masks while carrying out their duties. On the recruitment webpage, the link to learn more about applying to be a deportation officer shows a photo of an armored vehicle rolling down a street with officers in military gear hanging onto the sides of the vehicle. The government is also seeking criminal investigators and lawyers who will prosecute immigration cases. The agency said it will advertise at college campuses, job fairs and law enforcement networks starting this week. But the recruiting drive has raised concerns about what happens if the agency grows too fast. Ice staffing has long been an issue, said Jason Houser, a former agency chief of staff during the Biden administration. At the beginning of the Trump administration there were roughly 6,000 officers within Ice tasked with monitoring noncitizens in the country, then finding and removing those not eligible to stay. Those staffing numbers remained largely static over the years even as the caseload ballooned. During the Biden administration, when the number of people arriving at the US-Mexico border skyrocketed, Ice workers were often pulled from their regular duties to go to the border. 'Ice does need more employees to handle the volume of what they're handling,' Houser said. But he is concerned about whether the rush to increase staffing could mean lower standards for recruits and training. The border patrol's rapid expansion during the early 2000s serves as a cautionary tale. To meet hiring goals, training and hiring standards were changed. Arrests for employee misconduct rose. 'If they start waiving requirements there like they did for border patrol, you're going have an exponential increase in officers that are shown the door after three years because there's some issue,' he said. At the same time, Houser noted the Department of Homeland Security has dismantled some of the key agencies that have provided some level of oversight over Ice and other DHS arms. Houser estimated it would take three to four years to actually hire and train that number of new Ice staffers. In the meantime, he worries that Ice will rely on private contractors, national guard troops and other federal law enforcement officers to meet the administration's goal of 3,000 arrests a day. Chuck Wexler is the executive director of the Police Executive Research Forum, which studies policing issues. He said police departments across the country have struggled to maintain staffing since the pandemic and the fallout from the death of George Floyd, and are often offering hiring bonuses as a result. He's seen bonus offers ranging from $10,000 to as much as $60,000 or $70,000 for departments on the west coast. But he said the $50,000 topline bonus that DHS is offering is definitely on the high end, and homeland security's hiring spree could end up having repercussions on police departments across the country if their officers try to get hired by Ice. 'The environment for hiring law enforcement has never been more competitive,' he said. 'This could conceivably impact state and local agencies. You could have someone leaving a police department to get a $50,000 signing bonus with DHS.'

These are the cities where an Uber ride is going to cost you the most
These are the cities where an Uber ride is going to cost you the most

The Independent

timean hour ago

  • The Independent

These are the cities where an Uber ride is going to cost you the most

Taking Ubers is getting expensive across the nation but a half-hour ride in certain states and cities is going to do far more damage to your wallet than in others, according to a new analysis. Net Credit collected the average price of a 30-minute ride in an Uber in locations across the U.S., and found ride-share passengers in Washington state are paying the most, with a half-hour drive costing on average $53.46. On the other side of the list is Indiana, where the average half-hour ride in an Uber will cost around $30.35. Other states with less expensive rides include Texas at $30.96, Utah at $30.71, and Oklahoma at $31.54. But a ride in plenty of other states is going to cost upwards of $40. The average price of a half-hour Uber ride in California, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, Louisiana, Alabama, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York are all at least $40, and rides in several other states — South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arkansas, and Nevada — will cost just under that mark. When it comes to individual cities, Seattle tops the list as the most expensive city for a half-hour Uber ride. In Seattle a half-hour ride costs almost $60, according to the analysis. The nine next most expensive cities for Ubers aren't necessarily each the sprawling, wildly expensive, cities one might expect. Those are Cheyenne, Reno, New York City, San Diego, Baton Rouge, Newark, Anchorage, San Jose, and Portland. The cheapest overall city for Uber for a half-hour ride is Indianapolis where it'll cost around $28.33. Following Indianapolis, the most affordable cities for taking an Uber are Fort Worth, Tucson, Mesa, Omaha, Miami, Oklahoma City, Raleigh, Houston, and Memphis. According to Net Credit, the price of Uber rides increased by 7.2 percent across the country in 2024. Net Credit noted that part of what may be driving down prices in Indianapolis is the appearance of a competitor, inDrive, which allows riders to propose a price for their ride, and drivers can counter-bid for a higher fee. 'We're giving both the driver and passenger the freedom to kind of choose their own adventure," Adam Warner, the company's head of U.S. operations, told Net Credit. 'So you get to select the driver. Are you willing to wait 10 minutes for this person to pick you up in a Tesla Model Y, or are you comfortable with the Chevy Malibu that's only two minutes away to pick you up?' Net Credit also worked out which city's Uber costs were the most and least expensive relative to the average wages of its residents. The city with the most affordable Uber rides — relative to its residents' average hourly wage — is Washington, D.C., where a 30-minute trip will still cost riders 106.5 percent of their average hourly wage. Following the nation's capital, the most affordable cities for Ubering relative to residents' average hourly wages include San Jose, San Francisco, Fort Worth, Indianapolis, Stamford, Raleigh, Boston, Mesa, and Baltimore. The least affordable city was determined to be Cheyenne, Wyoming, where a ride is 224 percent of a resident's average hourly wage. Reno, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Jackson, Seattle, Fresno, Las Vegas, Augusta, and Buffalo made up the rest of the list.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store