Analysis-Italy's referendum flop bolsters Meloni, reveals divide on left over citizenship
By Angelo Amante
ROME (Reuters) -Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni snubbed a referendum on easing citizenship laws but has emerged stronger from the vote as the leftist opposition failed to mobilise mass opposition to her right-wing government after nearly three years in power.
A coalition of political parties, unions and civil society groups had promoted the five-question referendum. The proposals included halving the period of residence required to apply for Italian citizenship by naturalisation to five years from 10 as well as strengthening job protection rules.
The 'Yes' vote prevailed but only around 30% of eligible voters cast their ballots, far fewer than the required 50% plus one of the electorate needed for the referendum to be valid, meaning Meloni can ignore the results.
Key government ministers had encouraged their supporters to boycott the referendum while the opposition had hoped that a strong turnout could help build momentum in favour of political change and challenge Meloni's domination of Italian politics.
"It has been a big defeat for the left, that strengthens the government," said Antonio Tajani, the deputy prime minister and leader of Forza Italia party, one of the coalition parties.
Meloni, who took office in October 2022 at the head of a right-wing coalition, remains popular. A poll from SWG institute on Tuesday put her Brothers of Italy party at just above 30%, up from the 26% it won in a 2022 national election, while the main opposition centre-left Democratic Party (PD) was on 23%.
"This was an attempt to deal a blow (to the government) and it seems to me that it has failed. I think there was hope among the promoters of a stronger anti-Meloni mobilisation," said Lorenzo Pregliasco, from YouTrend polling agency.
YouTrend figures showed an average 12.9 million electors voted 'Yes' on the labour questions - slightly more than those who backed the centre-right coalition in 2022 - which the opposition hailed as the first building block of an alternative.
Italy's next national election is not scheduled until 2027.
DIVISION ON CITIZENSHIP RULES
Tallies showed differences in voting between the labour-related measures and the question about easing citizenship rules, which was far more contentious given Meloni's hard line against mass migration.
More than 85% of those who took part in the two-day vote backed stronger protection for workers but roughly a third opposed speeding up the procedures for gaining citizenship, indicating divisions also among progressive voters on the issue.
"There is a part of the more moderate left-wing electorate that does not share the (progressive) parties' positions on migrants. They are not against them, but they want laws that can limit entry and citizenship," said polling expert Antonio Noto.
Noto added that the data suggested some of Italy's right-leaning voters had defied calls from their parties' leaders to boycott the referendum and had likely helped boost the "No" vote on citizenship.
Pollsters say the wealthy centres of cities including Milan and Turin strongly backed reforming the citizenship rules, while the number decreased in the suburbs, indicating that lower-income voters are more conservative on the issue.
The failure of the referendum has dealt a major setback for groups fighting for the integration of migrants. Promoters complained of confusion and overlap with other issues, including the management of migratory flows and illegal arrivals.
"The lack of information and misinformation on the citizenship question certainly affected the result, in terms of abstentions and votes against," said Anna Lisa Mandorino, who heads civil rights group Cittadinanzattiva.
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