What could happen if Zelensky and Putin actually meet?

Metro

3 hours ago

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, but there are hopes the two countries could soon sit down and discuss matters face to face.
Yesterday's meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump at the White House was hailed as making 'real progress'.
But the elephant in the room is a potential faceoff between Vladimir Putin and Zelensky.
The pair last met in person in 2019, speaking about how to stop fighting in eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops had been trying to take land since 2014.
Putin and Zelensky met in Paris, but the meeting didn't lead to any long-term peace in the regions.
The stakes have never been higher after Russia illegally invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sparking a war which has killed more than 70,000 Ukrainian civilians.
If the meeting comes to fruition, body language expert Judi James said the interaction could play out like a long-awaited boxing match.
Zelensky and Putin's last face-to-face meeting in 2019 showed two very different leaders from the ones we know today.
Judi James told Metro: 'Zelensky was a fresh-faced, slim, youthful-looking man back then, in his suit and tie, and there was a series of body language rituals that made him look like the nervous and amenable junior at the table.
'Zelensky is now a changed man. He looks like a sturdy wartime leader now with his more muscular build and his warrior stance. His terrible spat with Vance and Trump showed he is no longer in a 'compliant youth' role. He was not intimidated by Trump, although this week showed he is able to play the game in terms of diplomacy.'
Ian Garner, Assistant Professor at the Pilecki Institute in Warsaw, specialises in Russian war studies. He told Metro that anything is possible, but a potential meeting between Zelensky and Putin would face hurdles before ever coming to fruition.
He said: 'The Europeans, in particular, would want to be present so that they can keep pushing forward the idea that Russia is the aggressor in the war and that Russia has to make concessions, as well as Ukraine.'
James said if Putin and Zelensky do meet in the coming months, they would have 'invisible armies of war dead behind them'.
She explained: 'From the 'ring walk' to the face-to-face poses and the handshake that will be a symbolic 'touching of the gloves', this meeting is therefore likely to have a similar body language format as a boxing match, although hopefully with no prolonged stare-off.'
But the man who has the most influence in the negotiations – Donald Trump – will also likely want to be at the centre of attention in the discussions, Garner adds.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House, told Metro: 'Speculation about the possibility of the two meeting is just another example of how media reporting and the statements of European leaders are very different from expert assessments of what is actually realistic.
'Nobody who has been listening to Putin and watching the course of the war anticipates that a meeting between him and Zelensky is realistic unless pressure is brought by Trump on Putin in a manner that has not been seen to date.'
If the meeting happens, Giles thinks it will take place at the White House, according to Trump's claims.
'But Putin has been reluctant to meet Zelensky and legitimise his presidency. However, if it were to happen, then Putin would find Zelensky a much tougher customer than Trump.
'Putin would find that he is unable to intimidate Zelensky in the same way that he has other leaders. And he has limited negotiating space to try to get his way with Zelensky because his armed forces have already spent years trying to destroy Ukraine and failing.'
The conversation between Putin and Zelensky would be interesting to watch, Garner said, mainly because Putin is not a confrontational leader.
'He will stick to his script. Even if the script bears no relationship with reality, he's very level-headed, and he's very cold. When he speaks in Russian, he speaks with this incredibly even pace. That's how he engages with world leaders; that's how he's always done his negotiations,' he said.
Zelensky, however, is a bit more of a 'chameleon'.
Garner explained: 'He's a performer in the sense that he usually tries to shift the way he behaves based on what his audience wants most. I do think he made a mistake in the Oval Office back in February with that big blow-up confrontation, and he knows that he made that mistake.
'Look at the way that he behaved with Trump yesterday. During a future meeting with Putin, Zelensky would be very well prepared. He will have his script. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw a couple of jabs at Putin.'
Judi James said: 'One of the most important factors of this meeting will be the staging and the choreography. Putin needs to not look like a superior senior as he did in Paris.
'Someone, possibly Trump, needs to be an immaculate and inclusive host. Every gesture from the host needs to be impartial. Last time they had a round table, but seemed to play it by ear from there, but this meeting will need a top-level psychologist to apply some forensic analysis of layout, seating, positioning of furniture and the photographers.
'Last time Zelensky sat with his back to the press and had to turn for an unserious-looking photo. Given the history of Putin and Zelensky, though, plus Putin's skills at subtle body language power-play, someone needs to be able to spot the subtlest of signals and cope with tensions and tricks before they destroy any hair-fine balance.'
Besides the obvious – a ceasefire – land is the main focus of chats between Russia and Ukraine.
Garner explains: 'We know what Putin wants, and we know what Putin won't give up, and that's the land. And I'd be astonished if he makes any really meaningful security guarantees to Ukraine or permits America to make meaningful security guarantees to Ukraine, but Zelensky might be a little bit more flexible. More Trending
'The reason is that Zelensky, unlike Putin, is not a dictator. He's a democratic leader, and what he brings to the negotiating table will be closer to what at least a broad section of the Ukrainian population wants.'
A potential ceasefire, which could involve security guarantees from Western powers, such as NATO, will be unlikely, Garner says.
'It's hard to see Putin agreeing to anything that would involve any foreign troops in Ukraine. The more weapons, the less likely that Putin will agree to it.'
Giles agrees: 'We've already seen that even though the objectives of the two sides are completely incompatible and there's no room for agreement, there are other aspects of the war where it is valuable to have face-to-face talks, such as, for example, prisoner exchanges.'
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