John Ivison: Making Canada investable again will take more than Carney's dreams
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The statement expressed a confidence that, as with deceased baseball players in the movie Field of Dreams, 'if you build it (the office), they (the projects) will come.'
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But will they? Is there pent-up demand on the part of the owners of globally mobile capital to invest in Canadian infrastructure?
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This country still has a reputation as a difficult place to build things in a timely and predictable fashion, said Elan Harper, director of Canadian business tax for Andersen Consulting and a former policy head for the leader of the Opposition, Pierre Poilievre.
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In addition, President Donald Trump is using the carrot of big corporate tax cuts in his 'big, beautiful bill' (BBB) and the stick of tariffs to persuade investors to look south.
'The BBB provides the certainty of a very competitive corporate tax regime for the foreseeable future. If Canada wants to attract capital, we need to ensure we are just as attractive from a tax perspective,' said Harper.
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The overarching assumption, at least on Bay Street, is that some form of baseline U.S. tariff will remain.
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Former finance minister John Manley said he thinks that will hurt investment flows and that the traditional 'investment thesis' — that Canada is a country of highly skilled people, rich in natural resources, governed by the rule of law, with unfettered access to the U.S. market — may have to be rewritten.
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'Without the latter part, we might have to look at other things, like becoming a lower-cost jurisdiction by adjusting business income tax or even personal income tax,' he said.
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Despite recent cuts, Canada's combined federal and provincial personal income tax remains the fifth highest of 38 high-income countries at 53.53 per cent. The combined corporate rate at 26.14 per cent is higher than the OECD average, while being marginally lower than the G7 average.
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The mood across the country remains decidedly mixed, according to the Bank of Canada's second-quarter business outlook, released on Monday.
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It suggested the uncertainty over Trump's trade policies is curbing business investment (and consumer spending) in Canada, even though most see the economy avoiding a recession. Firms are holding off new investment plans, in the face of weaker orders and lower advanced bookings.
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