Erin becomes first hurricane of the Atlantic season; direct hit on US not expected
Hurricane Erin formed in the Atlantic on Aug. 15, becoming the first hurricane of the 2025 season and putting it on track to become a major hurricane over the weekend, forecasters said.
"At this time we don't expect a direct hit to the United States – we still need to watch it just in case," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "We expect the entirety of the East Coast to be impacted by big waves, rip currents next week."
It was still too early to determine exactly what impact Erin might have on the East Coast of the United States, the Bahamas and Bermuda, forecasters said. Rough surf conditions and rip currents could be in store for the Atlantic basin, with potential for tropical storm conditions in Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Experts urged preparing ahead of time for potential hurricanes.
Other impacts to land include the chance of 10- to 15-foot waves along the Outer Banks, barrier islands off North Carolina and southern Virginia, flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph in Bermuda, AccuWeather said.
Erin is predicted to become a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or higher storm. Major hurricanes have wind speeds of over 110 mph, and AccuWeather predicted Erin could have winds of at least 130 mph, which would make it a Category 4 storm.
"Regardless of the details, Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend," the National Hurricane Center said in a morning update.
The system developed into a tropical storm out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 12 and moved along a westward path. It originated off the African coast as a cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms last week, according to AccuWeather.
This is the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather usually peaks between mid-August and mid-October. On average, the Atlantic usually sees its first hurricane on about Aug. 11, according to NOAA, putting Erin just about on track with typical seasons.
Erin path tracker
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
How to prepare for a hurricane
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends.
Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do before a storm arrives
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Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Erin to rapidly strengthen, reach major hurricane status this weekend
Aug. 15 (UPI) -- Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning and is forecast to rapidly strengthen as it heads near the Leeward Islands, and later Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Erin became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- just 2 mph above the tropical storm designation. In the 7 p.m. update, Erin increased to 85 mph. Erin was 310 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph in warm waters. The NHC said the motion is expected to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. With rapid strengthening the next two to three days, Eric is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend with winds at least 111 mph. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to go just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 at 130 mph on Monday, the NHC said. By 2 p.m., Wednesday, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and outside the big tracking cone. "While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the East coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week," NHC forecaster Jack Beven wrote in a discussion. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds outward to 115 miles. Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic. The NHC said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands -- which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat -- should expect heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with isolated totals of 6 inches. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides. Swells will begin affecting this area and will spread to the western Atlantic next week. Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. "Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore," Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, said. "These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away." The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Rapid intensification? Hurricane forecasters say Erin's winds could skyrocket.
Tropical Storm Erin, now spinning far out in the central Atlantic Ocean, could undergo rapid intensification into a powerful 125-mph hurricane over the next few days, meteorologists said in an Aug. 14 advisory. This phenomenon can cause a tropical storm to escalate into a hurricane or a hurricane to jump one or more categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale in less than a day. An early Aug. 14 forecast from the National Hurricane Center said that Erin was forecast to undergo rapid intensification, but based on new data, a later forecast called for "steady" intensification over the next few days. "Erin is moving into an environment with very warm water temperatures, and it's not going to exit that environment for at least 5 or 6 days," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his Substack The Eyewall. "Erin should begin to tap into this environment over the next couple days, and it's possible that we see a burst of rapid intensification at some point." Regardless, the environment ahead looks ripe for Erin to become a powerful major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane this weekend, and the storm is forecast to be nearing Category 4 strength as it turns into the western Atlantic early next week, noted WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in an Aug. 14 Substack post. Though not currently thought to be direct threat to land, Erin's waves are forecast to batter the East Coast with high surf and the threat of dangerous rip currents for beachgoers. What is rapid intensification? Why is it dangerous? Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the hurricane center, a rise of 30 mph in 24 hours is expected. Whatever happens with Erin, rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and often catch people off guard, AccuWeather said. "Predicting a storm's peak intensity and its intensity at landfall is one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting, and a rapidly intensifying hurricane adds tremendously to that challenge," according to AccuWeather. What causes rapid intensification? "Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. "Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture." Such sudden spikes have been the hallmark of history's most fearsome hurricanes, Ken Graham, former director of the hurricane center and now director of the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in 2022. Out of the nine hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that struck the U.S. mainland over 103 years, all but one saw the explosion of force and power known as rapid intensification. What is the Saffir-Simpson scale? Hurricanes are measured by wind speed, with the higher categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale corresponding to more intense storms. Here's the full scale: Category / Sustained Winds: 1: 74-95 mph 2: 96-110 mph 3: 111-129 mph 4: 130-156 mph 5: 157 mph or higher This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane 'rapid intensification' worries return with Erin
UPI
4 hours ago
- UPI
Erin to rapidly strengthen, reach major hurricane status this weekend
1 of 2 | Hurricane Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane by 2 a.m. Sunday. Tracking by the National Hurricane Center Aug. 15 (UPI) -- Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning and is forecast to rapidly strengthen as it heads near the Leeward Islands, and later Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Erin became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- just 2 mph above the tropical storm designation. In the 4 p.m. update, Erin remained at 75 mph. Erin was 365 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph in warm waters. The NHC said the motion is expected to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. With rapid strengthening the next two to three days, Eric is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend with winds at least 111 mph. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to go just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 at 130 mph on Monday, the NHC said. By 2 p.m., Wednesday, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and outside the big tracking cone. "While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the East coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week," NHC forecaster Jack Beven wrote in a discussion. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla and Barbuda, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds outward to 115 miles. Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic. The NHC said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands -- which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat -- should expect heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with isolated totals of 6 inches. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides. Swells will begin affecting this area and will spread to the western Atlantic next week. Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. "Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore," Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, said. "These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away." The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
