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‘Red light blinking' over China that ASX investors can't ignore

‘Red light blinking' over China that ASX investors can't ignore

Is the great ASX rotation finally playing out? It sure looks that way.
The long-held theory goes that the extraordinary run-up in Commonwealth Bank shares will come to an end when investors start to shift out of bank stocks and into more attractively priced miners. Since CBA shares peaked on June 24, the stock is down about 4.7 per cent. Over the same period, BHP shares have risen 13 per cent and Rio Tinto is up 11 per cent.
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LLM teams up with Terra Search at historic mine
LLM teams up with Terra Search at historic mine

Mercury

time4 hours ago

  • Mercury

LLM teams up with Terra Search at historic mine

Don't miss out on the headlines from Stockhead. Followed categories will be added to My News. LLM and Dr Simon Beams team up to explore historic Highway Reward mine Company has extensive and detailed exploration and mining data from acquisition The parties will use AI tech to determine new copper-gold drill targets Special Report: Loyal Metals has joined forces with highly regarded Terra Search geologist Dr Simon Beams to unlock the potential of its Highway Reward copper-gold mine in north Queensland. Amongst the world's highest-grade copper mines, the project operated from 1987 to 2005 with historical production of 3.65Mt at 5.7% copper and 260kt at 4.5 g/t gold. Throughout the mine's 20-year dormancy, Terra Search has preserved a comprehensive and robust archive of both exploration and mining data — an invaluable foundation for revitalisation. And Dr Beams himself has over 38 years of hands-on experience at the mine and with the broader Mount Windsor Volcanic Belt – invaluable expertise at the company works to realise the full potential of the world-class copper-gold system. Loyal Metals (ASX:LLM)says this collaboration could unlock the remnant potential of the mine using advanced AI-powered mining software to create 3D geological models and identify promising exploration targets for drilling. Transforming legacy assets through innovation The company has $4.4m in funding to deploy modern exploration techniques at the project, which it believes could unearth the next generation of discoveries. 'Highway Reward is more than a historic mine - it's a proven, high-grade copper-gold system with significant untapped potential,' MD Adam Ritchie said. 'Engaging Dr. Simon Beams enables us to fast track the next phase of discoveries, combining unmatched local expertise, modern exploration tools, and a clear vision for revitalisation. 'With a comprehensive digital data set and $4.4 million in funding, Loyal Metals is well positioned to unlock significant value through targeted exploration.' Dr Beams says the project has immense untapped potential. It also holds a special place for him, having been there for the first discovery drill hole. 'Having guided this project through its early exploration, I've seen firsthand the richness of its geology,' he said. 'Now, we're bridging decades of hands-on knowledge with cutting-edge tools—AI, advanced geophysics, and 3D modeling—to fast-track new discoveries. 'This isn't just about revisiting old data; it's about rewriting the playbook with modern precision. 'We're not just revisiting a mine; we're setting a new standard for how legacy assets can be transformed through innovation.' This article was developed in collaboration with Loyal Metals, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing. This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions. Originally published as Loyal Metals teams up with Dr Simon Beams to unlock Highway Reward copper-gold potential

ASX rollercoaster: After a major market melt-up, a reckoning looms
ASX rollercoaster: After a major market melt-up, a reckoning looms

West Australian

time8 hours ago

  • West Australian

ASX rollercoaster: After a major market melt-up, a reckoning looms

The Australian share market has been on something of a tear over the past few months, up 11 per cent since the depths of Donald Trump's Kamikaze tariff attack, cresting at an all-time high Friday. It's an impressive run given the economy is barely limping along, interest rates are only ever so slightly on the way down and the global economy is on tenterhooks. Such lofty heights amid persistent uncertainty suggest this bull run has more to do with FOMO than fundamentals and vis ulnerable to any hint of bad news. How else to explain a drop of as much as 2.9 per cent for our largest bank, CBA, 3.4 per cent nearly and 2.75 for ANZ and NAB? The sell-off has been sheeted home to the Japanese election, where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the upper house of parliament. It's the first time there hasn't been a governing majority since 1955. Market watchers suggest it could derail Japan's economic trajectory, given its high debt levels. That issue seems a long way from Australian banks, which derive the majority of their revenues from domestic lending. Aussie banks were up 30 per cent for the financial year ended, driven by the 46 per cent gain for Commbank. Australia's largest bank has been seen as something of a safe haven in times of uncertainty, popular with domestic and international investors alike for its strong balance sheet and stable earnings. But the company is not shooting the lights out in terms of growth, meaning investors are pushing up company valuations without worrying if it is being met by associated profits. 'CBA is the extreme version of that. On Friday, it was at record levels, and this is despite several years of falling earnings and significant uncertainty around what may happen internationally with tariffs,' said AMP chief economist Shane Oliver. It might be that the FOMO trade is going elsewhere. While banks were sold, miners were gold, with Rio Tinto up 1.5 per cent, Fortescue 1.35 per cent and South 32 up 4.33 per cent. There may also be a bet building on China. Stronger oil and metals prices in recent weeks have stirred speculation Beijing could unleash new stimulus. The iron ore price hit a four-month high thanks to a Chinese plan to build a hydroelectric dam in Tibet. But the base metal has been on the upward slope for four weeks, not due to further stimulus talks however, but a forced consolidation of the sector. In a market that is on the hunt for good news, investors seem to be ready to bid on any opportunities. 'Maybe the market's stepping that out,' Dr Oliver said, though he cautioned that recent Chinese GDP data didn't support that optimism. 'There was nothing in there suggesting China's going to jump in with a big stimulus. I'm less optimistic than the market on that one.' A higher iron ore price will certainly be welcome for miners, but a lot of the market is still relying on a bump from the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates. While that will be positive for corporates, the market seems very confident. Across the ASX200 the price earnings ratio - a metric that shows how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's profit - is 23 times and well above the long term average of around 17. It is also heading higher, raising questions about whether investors are shovelling money into stocks beyond the bargain hunting in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement. 'Share markets aren't cheap anymore,' Dr Oliver said. 'Maybe they were back in April… but they're not cheap anymore. Valuation measures certainly suggest the market is somewhat expensive.' A similar story is playing out in the US, where the markets have hit new records. That is significantly driven by the dominant tech firms but also in the hope that two key events occur: The US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, and Trump backs down on tariffs. US markets edged higher on suggestions by one Fed member that rates should be cut, even though Fed chair Powell has indicated no change until the tariff impact can be calculated. The other big hope is the TACO trade. Investors are banking on Trump Always Chickening Out, presuming he will cave in the face of economic fallout. It's a risky strategy, given the still very punitive tariff levies spelled out in recent letters. But the key indicator of market risk, the VIX measure of market volatility, is not much higher than before Trump came to office at 16.41. In April, when tariffs were announced, it spiked above 52. 'That's another indication of the extreme optimism around the TACO trade,' Dr Oliver said. That sets up the current earnings season as a key test of investor confidence. Companies will need to show profit growth that justifies their expanded multiples or risk sharp repricing. While investment firms are banking on those earnings staying benign, early signs suggest company insiders are already wary. According to data from just 10 per cent of corporate officers are buying their own company's stock. That is well below the 10-year average in the high 20s and far off the peaks above 40 per cent recorded in recent years. It leaves investors with quite the dilemma. Sit the current enthusiasm out and miss out on the steady melt up or bank on a combination of factors all working in unison: a tariff climbdown, a Fed rate cut, a Chinese stimulus, and no other destabilising factors. It's heady stuff, and at these levels, markets can easily run out of oxygen.

Closing Bell: Hangover sets in as ASX slides from record highs; resources offer bright spot
Closing Bell: Hangover sets in as ASX slides from record highs; resources offer bright spot

News.com.au

time8 hours ago

  • News.com.au

Closing Bell: Hangover sets in as ASX slides from record highs; resources offer bright spot

ASX slides from record high, down 1.02pc Energy and materials only sectors to lift South32 outperforms production guidance ASX suffers Liberation Day-sized fall Today was the largest single-day plunge on the ASX since markets went haywire over Liberation Day tariffs back in April, falling 1.02% by the end of trade. As is so often the case, the market giveth gains and the market taketh them straight back. The profit taking hit banks the worst, with the top seven falling between 3.61% and 1.42% each. Energy pushed back to lift 1.19% and materials added 0.32%, with much of that strength coming from resources stocks in particular. Taking a look at our outliers for the day, Block Inc (ASX:XYZ) surged 11% in trade after announcing an imminent listing to Wall Street's S&P 500, replacing Hess as the energy company is acquired by Chevron. It was a bit of a mixed bag for gold stocks, which slid on average. Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR) jumped 11% and Dateline Resources (ASX:DTR) 8%, but Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) shed 10% and Gorilla Gold Mines (ASX:GG8) 4%. South32 exceeds expectations South32 (ASX:S32) is one of the best performing resource stocks on the ASX today, up 4.5% to $3.02 a share after knocking it out of the park in its quarterly production report. The company's manganese mine produced 1.1Mt despite disruptions to operations from Tropical Cyclone Megan last year, handily beating analyst estimates of 850,000 wmt. 'We delivered another strong quarter of operating performance, exceeding the group's FY25 production guidance, driven by annual production growth of 20% in copper and 6% in aluminium,' South32 chief executive officer Graham Kerr said. 'Australia Manganese successfully resumed export shipments during the quarter, marking a significant recovery from the impacts caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan.' Production at South32's aluminium assets also improved, particularly at the Mozal smelter in Mozambique where production lifted 13% year-on-year following a period of civil unrest. S32 returned US$350m to shareholders in the 2025 financial year in the form of dividends and an on-market share buy-back. ASX SMALL CAP LEADERS Today's best performing small cap stocks: Code Name Last % Change Volume Market Cap AIV Activex Limited 0.021 200% 15073955 $1,508,518 BHM Broken Hill Mines Ltd 0.46 119% 7719357 $22,594,508 IS3 I Synergy Group Ltd 0.0035 75% 8384701 $3,412,600 TR2 Tali Resources Ltd 0.585 58% 1415855 $13,876,850 CR9 Corellares 0.003 50% 1370559 $2,014,540 MOM Moab Minerals Ltd 0.0015 50% 555399 $1,874,666 PGD Peregrine Gold 0.27 46% 3221520 $15,696,832 AUH Austchina Holdings 0.002 33% 250000 $4,538,075 BLZ Blaze Minerals Ltd 0.004 33% 28073114 $5,335,392 CRB Carbine Resources 0.004 33% 737606 $3,000,489 CT1 Constellation Tech 0.002 33% 33333 $2,212,101 SKK Stakk Limited 0.006 33% 5045394 $9,337,859 SPQ Superior Resources 0.006 33% 7941284 $10,669,422 ANO Advance Zinctek Ltd 1.1 33% 49880 $51,996,269 IG6 International Graphite 0.068 26% 416371 $10,452,150 AOK Australian Oil. 0.0025 25% 21000 $2,075,566 PRX Prodigy Gold NL 0.0025 25% 500000 $6,350,111 QXR Qx Resources Limited 0.005 25% 470493 $5,241,315 HAL Halo Technologies 0.031 24% 153570 $3,215,910 RIE Riedel Resources Ltd 0.037 23% 115000 $2,084,354 NYR Nyrada Inc. 0.345 23% 1284051 $59,056,770 OEC Orbital Corp Limited 0.1475 23% 1376584 $19,773,566 JAL Jameson Resources 0.07 23% 100000 $40,419,003 PVW PVW Res Ltd 0.017 21% 2639479 $2,784,667 CRS Caprice Resources 0.058 21% 36534244 $32,016,302 In the news… ActivEX (ASX:AIV) has drummed up a 310,000-ounce gold resource at the Mt Hogan historical gold mine, the first JORC estimate for the mine, which sits within the Gilberton JV gold project with Gilberton Gold Pty Ltd. Management is also keen to investigate two other historical gold mining centres at the Josephine and Comstock prospects. Broken Hill Mines (ASX:BHM) is humming along on its first official day on the ASX, making some big gains while simultaneously kicking off a 4000m drilling program at the Pinnacles Mine with another 3000m of results awaiting assay at the lab. BHM is looking to expand the Pinnacles resource, which currently sits at 6Mt at 10.9% zinc equivalent. The company owns the operating Rasp mine, located around the site of the Broken Hill discovery on which the world's biggest miner BHP was founded. BHM isn't the only hot newly listed stock. Tali Resources (ASX:TR2) is also climbing after ringing the bell today, having raised $7.5m in its IPO. TR2 isn't wasting any time getting the drill rig to work either – the company will drill test four prospects at the West Arunta project in the coming weeks. Mark Creasy-backed Peregrine Gold (ASX:PGD) has unearthed a large-scale channel iron deposit at the Newman gold project, over a continuous strike of 6.4km. Initial results have averaged about 57% iron, peaking at 61%. It's the first time iron has been identified in the area. Blaze Minerals (ASX:BLZ) is poised to begin drilling at the Loulombo base metals project in the Republic of Congo, after finalising the project's acquisition from Congo Shining SARL. BLZ is particularly interested in the Mimpala target, a 1.5km by 500m zone with artisanal workings over 800m of that strike. ASX SMALL CAP LAGGARDS Today's worst performing small cap stocks: Code Name Last % Change Volume Market Cap HLX Helix Resources 0.001 -50% 589143 $6,728,387 GGE Grand Gulf Energy 0.002 -33% 2873646 $8,461,275 CCO The Calmer Co Int 0.003 -25% 1105000 $12,045,413 SHP South Harz Potash 0.003 -25% 800000 $5,132,248 CRR Critical Resources 0.004 -20% 453898 $13,850,427 MEM Memphasys Ltd 0.004 -20% 191616 $9,917,991 PIL Peppermint Inv Ltd 0.002 -20% 3050857 $5,752,724 RGL Riversgold 0.004 -20% 5452678 $8,418,563 ROG Red Sky Energy. 0.004 -20% 561454 $27,111,136 VRC Volt Resources Ltd 0.004 -20% 4637281 $23,424,247 REE Rarex Limited 0.022 -19% 6840356 $24,844,429 RDG Res Dev Group Ltd 0.009 -18% 1574238 $32,459,439 NHE Nobleheliumlimited 0.033 -18% 3177284 $23,981,000 CKA Cokal Ltd 0.029 -17% 1683328 $37,763,214 AON Apollo Minerals Ltd 0.005 -17% 2141200 $5,570,741 AUK Aumake Limited 0.0025 -17% 2055000 $9,070,076 MSG Mcs Services Limited 0.005 -17% 122300 $1,188,598 PRM Prominence Energy 0.0025 -17% 208662 $1,459,411 SLZ Sultan Resources Ltd 0.005 -17% 28000 $1,388,819 AJX Alexium Int Group 0.006 -14% 87872 $11,105,001 HHR Hartshead Resources 0.006 -14% 783825 $19,660,775 NAE New Age Exploration 0.003 -14% 5125000 $9,470,690 RKB Rokeby Resources Ltd 0.012 -14% 1492694 $22,888,056 SPX Spenda Limited 0.006 -14% 2788069 $32,306,508 TMS Tennant Minerals Ltd 0.006 -14% 256748 $7,461,233 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT Loyal Metals (ASX:LLM) has joined forces with highly regarded Terra Search geologist Dr Simon Beams to unlock the potential of its Highway Reward copper-gold mine in north Queensland. Nova Minerals (ASX:NVA) is accelerating exploration at the 1.24Moz gold RPM deposit, part of its larger 9.9Moz Estelle gold and critical minerals project in Alaska. Drilling at Caprice Resources' (ASX:CRS) Island gold project in WA's Murchison region has returned its best intercept to date at the Vadrian's deposit of 11m grading 17.3g/t from 170m. Broken Hill Mines (ASX:BHM) has debuted on the ASX after a rebrand and consolidation, hitting the ground running with drilling programs at Pinnacles West, targeting silver, lead and zinc. Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) is acquiring Aurumin (ASX:AUN) to create a large-scale, multi-million ounce greater Sandstone project in WA. Stream sediment sampling on Peregrine Gold's (ASX:PGD) E52/3850 tenement has revealed a large-scale Channel Iron Deposit discovery just 2km from BHP's Western Ridge asset, close to the town of Newman. RareX (ASX:REE) has raised $2 million through a placement at 2.2c per share to fund exploration across its Mt Mansbridge, Cummins Range and Mrima Hill critical minerals projects. Trading Halts At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Broken Hill Mines and Peregrine Gold are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

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