Monsoon arrives early in India: Here's what caused the unusual shift
Agency photo
NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Saturday, May 24, eight days ahead of its usual onset date of June 1, marking its earliest appearance on the Indian mainland since 2009, the
India Meteorological Department
(IMD) said.
This early onset, according to IMD Scientist Neetha K Gopal, aligns with their official forecast which had projected monsoon arrival around May 27, with a margin of four days.
'Monsoon onset took place today, 24th May, and it is much ahead of its schedule. Normally, the standard monsoon arrival date in Kerala is 1st June, but IMD has already forecasted that the monsoon will reach early this year,' Gopal told ANI. 'The official forecast was 27th May with a model of 4 days.
That means the monsoon could reach 4 days before 27th May or 4 days after 27th May. So, our forecast has also come true today.'
The early monsoon has not only covered Kerala but also advanced into the Lakshadweep area, the south Arabian Sea, parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, and some parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra.
It has also spread into the remaining areas of the Maldives and Comorin, many parts of Tamil Nadu, and the southwest and east-central Bay of Bengal, along with parts of Mizoram and the north Bay of Bengal.
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Conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to further advance into central Arabian Sea, Goa, more areas of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, additional parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and deeper into northeastern states and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim over the next two to three days.
Why monsoon arrived early?
The early arrival of the southwest monsoon is driven by a combination of favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low-pressure area developed over the Arabian Sea along with a trough line extending across Vidarbha. These systems significantly enhanced moisture inflow and atmospheric convection, accelerating the monsoon's advance over the Indian subcontinent.
One of the earliest signs of this accelerated progression was the monsoon's arrival over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining areas on May 13, well ahead of the normal onset date of May 21.
This early advancement helped set the pace for its swift movement toward Kerala.
Additionally, neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions were observed during the period, which typically support a normal or stronger monsoon, unlike El Niño years that often suppress rainfall over India. Another contributing factor may have been reduced snow cover over the Himalayan region, a condition that historically correlates with more vigorous monsoon activity.
The advancement is expected to benefit key sectors reliant on the monsoon, such as agriculture, fisheries, and livestock. Favourable monsoons not only help these sectors prepare better for extreme weather and climate change but also validate the economic importance of government investments in weather and forecasting systems.
Significant initiatives like the Monsoon Mission and High Performance Computing-based forecasting systems have improved resource management, crop yields, and reduced weather-related losses in recent years.
I
MD data shows that the last time the monsoon hit the Indian coast earlier than this year was in 2009, when it arrived on May 23. Commenting on the northeast monsoon, B Amudha, head of the Regional Meteorological Centre, said, 'At present, we cannot say anything about the performance of the northeast monsoon on the basis of southwest monsoon. Let us monitor the progress, and then we will issue the long-range forecast.
'
'The normal date of onset of south west monsoon is June 1. This year Southwest monsoon has set in on 24th May. This is much earlier than the normal onset. If you look at the data from the past 16 years, in 2009, the monsoon set in on 23rd May,' she added.
Meanwhile, a depression over the south Konkan coast is expected to move eastward and weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area over the next 12 hours.
The IMD has issued red and orange alerts for multiple districts in Kerala over the coming days.
On Saturday, red alerts were declared for Kasaragod and Kannur, while orange alerts were issued for 11 other districts including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, and Ernakulam.
The IMD also reported heavy to very heavy rainfall in several parts of Kerala, Mahe, and coastal Maharashtra, as well as isolated heavy showers in South Interior Karnataka, Odisha, Bihar, Madhya Maharashtra, Goa, Uttarakhand, Vidarbha, Saurashtra, Kutch, and Tamil Nadu (including Puducherry and Karaikal) till 8 am on Saturday.
'For the next 2 days, we have a red alert in the Nilgiris district. The southwest monsoon primarily affects taluks like Ooty, Kunda...the people here are requested to follow precautions and not venture out unless in an emergency...All the boating activities have been stopped for today, and it may remain like this for the next 2 days,' she told ANI.
As the monsoon continues to advance rapidly, officials are keeping a close watch on its trajectory and associated weather developments across the country.
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