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Hans India
27-05-2025
- Climate
- Hans India
India set for above-normal monsoon; boost to agriculture likely
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its updated forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon, bringing encouraging news for the country. According to the report issued on Tuesday, rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season from June to September is likely to be above normal across most parts of India. The all-India rainfall is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. This forecast raises hopes for a productive agricultural season and improved water availability, although it also calls for preparedness against weather-related risks. Significantly, the monsoon forecast is quite promising for Central and South Peninsular India, regions crucial for agricultural productivity, where above-normal rainfall is highly likely. Northwest India is expected to see normal rainfall. At the same time, Northeast India may see below-normal rainfall, raising some concern for the region's ecosystems and agriculture. The Monsoon Core Zone, which covers most of India's rainfed farming areas, is also expected to receive above-normal rainfall, providing a strong foundation for a successful Kharif crop season. June 2025, the first month of the monsoon, is expected to witness above-normal rainfall for the country as a whole. Most parts of India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, except for some areas in southern peninsular India, and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is anticipated. These early rains are vital for sowing operations and groundwater replenishment. Temperature predictions for June offer mixed signals. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal in most parts of the country, but many parts of Northwest and Northeast India may experience above-normal maximum temperatures. Minimum temperatures are anticipated to be above normal across most regions, except parts of Central India and the adjoining south Peninsula, which may record normal to below-normal minimums. Encouragingly, the number of heatwave days is likely to be below normal in most of Northwest, Central, and East India, reducing the risk of extreme heat events in early summer. Climatic factors contributing to this forecast include neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. However, models suggest a weak negative IOD may develop during the monsoon season. These conditions, while not extreme, will be monitored closely, as they can subtly influence monsoon behaviour. A detailed breakdown of rainfall predictions by meteorological subdivisions shows that 34 out of 36 subdivisions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This includes major agricultural regions such as Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. Only Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, while a few northeastern and hilly regions may see near-normal rainfall. This optimistic monsoon forecast brings significant potential benefits. It is expected to boost crop output, ease pressure on irrigation systems, and support rural livelihoods. However, authorities and communities are urged to remain alert to possible challenges such as flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in vulnerable regions. Public health systems may also need to prepare for waterborne diseases and sanitation issues, particularly in densely populated areas. The IMD will continue to provide updated extended range forecasts and short to medium-range forecasts through its official website. These tools are essential for farmers, policymakers, and disaster management authorities to plan and respond effectively throughout the monsoon season. With careful planning and timely response, the 2025 monsoon could become a strong driver of agricultural growth and water security, even as the country remains watchful of the risks that come with it.
Time of India
25-05-2025
- Climate
- Time of India
Monsoon arrives early in India: Here's what caused the unusual shift
Agency photo NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on Saturday, May 24, eight days ahead of its usual onset date of June 1, marking its earliest appearance on the Indian mainland since 2009, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. This early onset, according to IMD Scientist Neetha K Gopal, aligns with their official forecast which had projected monsoon arrival around May 27, with a margin of four days. 'Monsoon onset took place today, 24th May, and it is much ahead of its schedule. Normally, the standard monsoon arrival date in Kerala is 1st June, but IMD has already forecasted that the monsoon will reach early this year,' Gopal told ANI. 'The official forecast was 27th May with a model of 4 days. That means the monsoon could reach 4 days before 27th May or 4 days after 27th May. So, our forecast has also come true today.' The early monsoon has not only covered Kerala but also advanced into the Lakshadweep area, the south Arabian Sea, parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, and some parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra. It has also spread into the remaining areas of the Maldives and Comorin, many parts of Tamil Nadu, and the southwest and east-central Bay of Bengal, along with parts of Mizoram and the north Bay of Bengal. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Economic Storm Warning for Australia Fat Tail Daily Learn More Undo Conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to further advance into central Arabian Sea, Goa, more areas of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, additional parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and deeper into northeastern states and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim over the next two to three days. Why monsoon arrived early? The early arrival of the southwest monsoon is driven by a combination of favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low-pressure area developed over the Arabian Sea along with a trough line extending across Vidarbha. These systems significantly enhanced moisture inflow and atmospheric convection, accelerating the monsoon's advance over the Indian subcontinent. One of the earliest signs of this accelerated progression was the monsoon's arrival over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining areas on May 13, well ahead of the normal onset date of May 21. This early advancement helped set the pace for its swift movement toward Kerala. Additionally, neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions were observed during the period, which typically support a normal or stronger monsoon, unlike El Niño years that often suppress rainfall over India. Another contributing factor may have been reduced snow cover over the Himalayan region, a condition that historically correlates with more vigorous monsoon activity. The advancement is expected to benefit key sectors reliant on the monsoon, such as agriculture, fisheries, and livestock. Favourable monsoons not only help these sectors prepare better for extreme weather and climate change but also validate the economic importance of government investments in weather and forecasting systems. Significant initiatives like the Monsoon Mission and High Performance Computing-based forecasting systems have improved resource management, crop yields, and reduced weather-related losses in recent years. I MD data shows that the last time the monsoon hit the Indian coast earlier than this year was in 2009, when it arrived on May 23. Commenting on the northeast monsoon, B Amudha, head of the Regional Meteorological Centre, said, 'At present, we cannot say anything about the performance of the northeast monsoon on the basis of southwest monsoon. Let us monitor the progress, and then we will issue the long-range forecast. ' 'The normal date of onset of south west monsoon is June 1. This year Southwest monsoon has set in on 24th May. This is much earlier than the normal onset. If you look at the data from the past 16 years, in 2009, the monsoon set in on 23rd May,' she added. Meanwhile, a depression over the south Konkan coast is expected to move eastward and weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area over the next 12 hours. The IMD has issued red and orange alerts for multiple districts in Kerala over the coming days. On Saturday, red alerts were declared for Kasaragod and Kannur, while orange alerts were issued for 11 other districts including Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, and Ernakulam. The IMD also reported heavy to very heavy rainfall in several parts of Kerala, Mahe, and coastal Maharashtra, as well as isolated heavy showers in South Interior Karnataka, Odisha, Bihar, Madhya Maharashtra, Goa, Uttarakhand, Vidarbha, Saurashtra, Kutch, and Tamil Nadu (including Puducherry and Karaikal) till 8 am on Saturday. 'For the next 2 days, we have a red alert in the Nilgiris district. The southwest monsoon primarily affects taluks like Ooty, people here are requested to follow precautions and not venture out unless in an the boating activities have been stopped for today, and it may remain like this for the next 2 days,' she told ANI. As the monsoon continues to advance rapidly, officials are keeping a close watch on its trajectory and associated weather developments across the country.
eNCA
23-05-2025
- Climate
- eNCA
US braces for intense hurricane season as climate agency is gutted
WASHINGTON - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a more intense Atlantic hurricane season this year -- even as the Trump administration moves to gut the agency's workforce and slash its budget. NOAA is forecasting a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, with between 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 63km/h or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including three to five major hurricanes classed as categories three, four, or five, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. There is also a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season, the agency said. The administration is also seeking to dismantle the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), calling for it to be shut down and its duties instead handed to individual states. FEMA's acting head, Cameron Hamilton -- who was appointed by the Trump administration -- was fired earlier this month after saying that eliminating the agency was not "in the best interests of the American people." - Warming oceans - The forecast cites a confluence of factors: neutral conditions in the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, predictions of weak wind shear, and increased activity from the West African Monsoon -- the starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. "As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm in a statement. "NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property." But Rick Spinrad, the former NOAA administrator, told AFP he was deeply concerned about the agency's ability to respond following mass layoffs of meteorologists, technicians and other key personnel, spearheaded by Elon Musk's so-called "Department of Government Efficiency." "I worry about the ability to fly the aircraft, run the models, answer the phones as these storms start bearing down on the country -- at the same time that the Weather Service is going to have to be dealing with tornadoes, wildfires, floods, extreme precipitation," said Spinrad. Seawater temperatures have been rising for decades as a result of burning fossil fuels, Spinrad added. "So it's not a surprise, and undoubtedly, climate change has contributed to some of the ocean temperatures that are a major factor in this forecast." President Donald Trump is seeking to cut NOAA's research operations budget by $1.3 billion next year. Project 2025 -- the conservative blueprint the administration is using to guide its second-term agenda -- has labelled the agency a key driver of "climate alarmism." Last year, five storms that were big enough that they were assigned names caused economic losses exceeding a billion dollars, adjusted for inflation, according to NOAA. The deadliest of these was Helene, responsible for 250 US deaths — the most since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The Trump administration announced earlier this month it will stop updating its billion-dollar disaster database, which for 44 years illustrated the rising cost of climate destabilisation.
France 24
22-05-2025
- Climate
- France 24
US braces for intense hurricane season as climate agency is gutted
NOAA is forecasting a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, with between 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph (63 kph) or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including three to five major hurricanes classed as categories three, four, or five, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. There is also a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season, the agency said. The administration is also seeking to dismantle the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), calling for it to be shut down and its duties instead handed to individual states. FEMA's acting head, Cameron Hamilton -- who was appointed by the Trump administration -- was fired earlier this month after saying that eliminating the agency was not "in the best interests of the American people." Warming oceans The forecast cites a confluence of factors: neutral conditions in the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, predictions of weak wind shear, and increased activity from the West African Monsoon -- the starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. "As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm in a statement. "NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property." But Rick Spinrad, the former NOAA administrator, told AFP he was deeply concerned about the agency's ability to respond following mass layoffs of meteorologists, technicians and other key personnel, spearheaded by Elon Musk's so-called "Department of Government Efficiency." "I worry about the ability to fly the aircraft, run the models, answer the phones as these storms start bearing down on the country -- at the same time that the Weather Service is going to have to be dealing with tornadoes, wildfires, floods, extreme precipitation," said Spinrad. Seawater temperatures have been rising for decades as a result of burning fossil fuels, Spinrad added. "So it's not a surprise, and undoubtedly, climate change has contributed to some of the ocean temperatures that are a major factor in this forecast." President Donald Trump is seeking to cut NOAA's research operations budget by $1.3 billion next year. Project 2025 -- the conservative blueprint the administration is using to guide its second-term agenda -- has labeled the agency a key driver of "climate alarmism." Last year, five storms that were big enough that they were assigned names caused economic losses exceeding a billion dollars, adjusted for inflation, according to NOAA. The deadliest of these was Helene, responsible for 250 US deaths — the most since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The Trump administration announced earlier this month it will stop updating its billion-dollar disaster database, which for 44 years illustrated the rising cost of climate destabilization.
