Oil rises 1% on signs of strong demand, Russia-Ukraine peace uncertainty
Brent crude futures were close to a two-week high and up 64 cents, or around 1%, to $67.48 a barrel at 1012 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 65 cents, or 1%, to $63.36 a barrel.
Both contracts climbed over 1% in the prior session.
Russia said on Wednesday that attempts to resolve security issues relating to Ukraine over the war without Moscow's participation were a "road to nowhere".
"If the White House's efforts do result in a halt to hostilities in Ukraine, and Russia gradually coming back into the international fold, it will be bearish for the crude market. But for now the Brent price floor to watch out for remains at $65 a barrel," said independent analyst Gaurav Sharma.
U.S. President Donald Trump has announced an additional tariff of 25% on Indian goods from August 27 because of India's Russian crude purchases, which make up nearly 35% of its overall oil imports.
Russian embassy officials in New Delhi said on Wednesday that Moscow expects to continue supplying oil to India despite warnings from the United States.
Given uncertainty over progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, the possibility of tighter sanctions on Russia has resurfaced, which led to bullish sentiment among traders, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels last week to 420.7 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, against expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel draw.
While the large draw indicates increased demand, the rise in crude levels at Cushing suggest underlying demand may be softer and that the draw was higher in part due to higher refinery runs and increased exports, Panmure Liberum's Ashley Kelty said.
(Reporting by Katya Golubkova in Tokyo and Siyi Liu in Singapore. Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Mark Potter)
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Khaleej Times
5 minutes ago
- Khaleej Times
Global oil markets face rising supply glut amid weak demand
The global oil market is bracing for what the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns could be the biggest supply glut since the pandemic, with crude inventories projected to swell through late 2025 and early 2026. On Thursday, Brent crude futures were close to a two-week high and up 43 cents, or around 0.6 per cent, at $67.27 a barrel at 1203 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, or 0.7 per cent, at $63.16 a barrel. Both contracts climbed over 1 per cent in the prior session. The draw signals resilient demand, yet gains remain limited as geopolitical tensions cloud the outlook. Energy traders weigh the prospect of shifting global supply flows, including stronger Russian exports and higher Opec+ output, which have pressured crude to a three-month low, down over 10 per cent this month. Demand growth continues to underperform expectations, while production — both from Opec+ and non-Opec+ suppliers — is surging to multi-year highs. In its August oil market report, the IEA once again cut demand growth forecasts, marking the sixth downgrade this year. Global oil demand is now expected to rise by just 680,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and by 700,000 bpd in 2026. Since the start of the year, the agency has lowered its growth outlook by a combined 350,000 bpd. Weak consumption across major economies and softer-than-expected demand from emerging markets such as China, Brazil, Egypt and India underpin the downward revisions. While jet fuel demand is enjoying a summer boost of over 2 per cent in the US and Europe, it has not been sufficient to offset wider demand weakness. At the same time, global supply is on the rise. The IEA has lifted its projection for supply growth this year to 2.5 million bpd, an upward revision of 370,000 bpd from July. 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Trump said the two leaders agreed to push directly for a peace settlement in Ukraine rather than a temporary ceasefire, signalling that Russian oil exports would continue largely undisturbed. He also indicated that sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, including China and India, would be held off for now. Analysts noted that uninterrupted Russian flows are bearish for prices, though markets may see only a limited near-term reaction until further clarity emerges from follow-up talks in Washington with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders. Despite the looming supply glut, crude prices have not yet fully reflected the weaker fundamentals. Stocks at pricing hubs remain below historical averages, while record refinery runs this summer helped absorb extra barrels. Traders are cautious, with many awaiting signals on sanctions policy and geopolitical negotiations before adjusting positions. Market watchers are of the view that overall outlook for oil markets remains fragile. Demand is stagnating, supply is accelerating, and inventories are swelling at rates not seen since the pandemic. Unless demand surprises on the upside or Opec+ undertakes fresh coordinated cuts, the imbalance could persist deep into 2026, they argued. Prices are likely to remain under pressure, testing the ability of producers — particularly those with higher costs — to weather an extended period of subdued revenues. For consuming nations, however, the prospect of lower energy prices could provide some relief at a time of sluggish global economic growth, they said.


Zawya
2 hours ago
- Zawya
Jordan: Safadi, Lavrov reiterate strong ties, expanding multi-sector cooperation
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Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (


Zawya
2 hours ago
- Zawya
Fed's expansive experiment in strategy to get a reboot at Jackson Hole
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In those years, as the Fed organized a nationwide series of community listening tours, staffers would ask about inflation and "people would look at us like we had two heads. It was not the topic" when employment and growth concerns were more paramount, said Duke University professor Ellen Meade, who helped organize the 2020 framework review as a top Fed adviser. "The world looks very different today." Powell has already acknowledged that the language adopted in 2020 had been overtaken by the surge of inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic and was likely on its way out. He is expected to detail the new strategy document when he addresses an annual Fed research conference on Friday. Minutes of the Fed's July 29-30 meeting released on Wednesday said the committee was close to finalizing changes to its statement of principles and reiterated that it "would be designed to be robust across a wide range of economic conditions." The current approach has been criticized for introducing complexities that may have slowed the Fed's response to emerging inflation in 2021 and proved irrelevant to how the economy evolved during the pandemic. Much of what was introduced in 2020, especially a controversial promise to allow periods of high inflation to offset low ones so it averages 2% over time, grew out of the Fed's experience trying to lift interest rates from near-zero where they had been mired after the 2007-to-2009 recession. That approach may remain appropriate during prolonged economic weakness, said former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who helped oversee the last framework revisions. But the approach for normal times may revert to the more straightforward inflation-targeting the Fed previously used. "A verbatim reading of the 2020 statement holds up pretty well operating in the environment the Fed had been operating in for a dozen years. Inflation below target. 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Job gains could continue until there were more obvious signs of rising prices. As the pandemic threw millions out of work, Powell at the Jackson Hole forum in 2020 spoke about the Fed's "appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities," and described a new strategy that "reflects our view that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation." The approach added to an emerging Republican critique of a "woke" Fed that downgraded price control to address income inequality. But it also was true to what the data suggested in the 2010s, and again more recently when the unemployment rate fell to very low levels even as inflation declined, defying many mainstream economists' predictions that high unemployment would be needed to lower inflation from its peak in 2022. Though the Fed's two congressionally mandated goals of stable inflation and maximum employment are considered equally important, Powell has begun using a formulation in which stable inflation is described as necessary for the job market to reach its potential - an approach that would let the Fed justify steps to fight inflation as still consistent with its employment goals. "Without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans," Powell said at the press conference following the Fed's July meeting. Meade said that harkens back to an approach former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan used to try to balance the two sometimes conflicting priorities, even if the understanding of how low unemployment does or does not influence inflation has changed. "You achieve price stability and that lays the groundwork for maximum employment...I do think Powell found his way back to that framing," Meade said. "You have to get to price stability first and that is in the front part of their brains." (Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci)