IMF, Pakistan's lifeline amid imminent war
According to IMF data, Pakistan entered into 25 loan arrangements over seven decades, from 1958 to 2024, with a cumulative agreed amount of $44.57 billion. Of that, $28.2 billion has been disbursed so far. Pakistan currently owes the IMF $8.3 billion. These include various loan types, from Stand-By Arrangements to Extended Fund Facilities.advertisementPakistan's first IMF bailout was signed on December 8, 1958, under a Stand-By Arrangement worth $30 million. However, no funds were drawn under that arrangement. The largest loan approved to date was under a Stand-By Arrangement in November 2008, with an agreed amount of $9.78 billion. The loan was approved to support its program to stabilise and rebuild the economy while expanding its social safety net to protect the poor. Pakistan ultimately drew $6.7 billion under that programme.The most recent arrangement was an Extended Fund Facility in September 2024 that will remain in effect until October 24, 2027. The total agreed amount under this programme is $7.19 billion, of which $1 billion has been disbursed. The upcoming meeting will also hold the first review of this loan.As of May 2025, Pakistan ranks as the IMF's fifth-largest debtor. Only Argentina, Ukraine, Egypt, and Ecuador owe more.Not just the IMFPakistan's growing debt burden has been sourced from bilateral and multilateral lenders. While the IMF is a major contributor, it is far from the only one. According to the State Bank of Pakistan's annual report, the country receives substantial multilateral disbursements from global financial institutions, with the Asian Development Bank being the largest. Pakistan received $2.3 billion from the bank in FY23 and $1.3 billion in FY24. Pakistan's fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.advertisementThe World Bank disbursed $2.1 billion in FY23 and $2.22 billion in FY24. Other institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank also loaned money to Pakistan. Collectively, they disbursed $740 million in FY23 and $660 million in FY24.Must Watch
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Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Indian Express
Planning the next leap forward
As the Tricolour was unfurled on India's 79th Independence Day, the country stood proudly as a confident, resilient, and rising nation. It is not just the world's largest democracy, but a country that has successfully crafted its destiny since attaining independence in 1947. Notwithstanding the current headwinds of US President Donald Trump's tariff war, it has weathered many storms in the past. One may recall the sanctions by the US in 1998 after the Pokhran nuclear tests conducted by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government or the role of the US in sending its Seventh Fleet in 1971, when India's war with Pakistan led to the creation of Bangladesh. India emerged stronger on each occasion. Today, no one can stop India's rise — its time has come. Just look at the last decade, India's GDP has more than doubled. It is projected to reach $4.19 trillion by 2025, making India the fourth-largest economy, behind the United States ($30.5 trillion), China ($19.2 trillion), and Germany ($4.74 trillion) (IMF estimates). Measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, India is already the world's third-largest economy at $17.65 trillion, trailing only China ($40.72 trillion) and the US ($30.51 trillion) in 2025. All this is a reflection of rising aspirations and India's strong resolve to regain its civilisational legacy. Since Independence, poverty levels have plummeted, while literacy, life expectancy, and women's empowerment have seen transformative leaps. From Chandrayaan's historic landing near the Moon's South Pole to the trailblazing Mars mission, Mangalyaan, India has staked its place at the frontiers of space exploration. The meteoric rise of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), processing over 10 billion transactions each month and inspiring fintech innovations worldwide, reflects a digital revolution. Indian origin leaders such as Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Indra Nooyi, and many more lead some of the most influential corporations, underscoring India's intellectual and entrepreneurial footprint far beyond its borders. Lal Bahadur Shastri's call of 'Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan,' later enriched by Vajpayee with 'Jai Vigyan' (hail science) and more recently by Modi with 'Jai Anusandhan' (hail research), reminds us that India's progress is rooted in science and technology. As Vajpayee once said, what information technology (IT) is for India, biotechnology (BT) is for Bharat. Independence Day is both a moment for celebration and reflection on the road travelled — and the one still ahead. When India gained independence in 1947, its GDP was around $30 billion. The population stood at 330 million, with an estimated 80 per cent living in poverty. The average life expectancy was a mere 32 years (1947), and literacy levels were just 18.3 per cent (1951). Foodgrain production stood at about 50 million metric tonnes (MMT). Fast forward to 2025: India's population has increased to 1.46 billion, but poverty, measured at the $3/day (2021 PPP) threshold, has fallen to just 5.3 per cent, as per World Bank estimates. Literacy has surged to 77 per cent, while life expectancy has more than doubled to 72 years (2023). Foodgrain production has multiplied sevenfold, reaching 353.9 MMT in 2024-25. India is now the world's largest rice exporter, shipping 20.2 MMT in FY25. Grain stocks with the government exceed 90 MMT, well above buffer norms. Horticulture output has risen 15 times since independence, milk production 11 times, and egg production an astonishing 77 times. From FY15 to FY25, under the Modi government, India's real GDP has grown at an average of 6.5 per cent annually, while agricultural GDP has expanded by 4 per cent per year, well above the population growth rate of under 1 per cent. As a result, India is a net exporter of agriculture, unlike the US and China, which are both net importers of agriculture. These are not mere statistics; they narrate the story of a country in motion. However, even as India has achieved food security, there are still many challenges: Nutritional security, especially of children under the age of five, remains pressing. This calls for a sharper focus on women's education, improved maternal health, and continued emphasis on sanitation. The Modi government deserves compliments for making India open defecation free (ODF), which will help improve child nutrition. In the agri-food space, however, much more can be done. In particular, rationalising food and fertiliser subsidies needs to be put on high priority. Together, these account for nearly Rs 3.71 lakh crore in the 2025–26 Union Budget — Rs 2.03 lakh crore for food and Rs 1.67 lakh crore for fertilisers. While these subsidies are meant to shield vulnerable populations, they are plagued by large inefficiencies. Studies suggest that at least 20 to 25 per cent of these subsidies fail to reach intended beneficiaries. Though politically tempting, these subsidies come at the cost of productive investments. The next leap forward has to be rationalising subsidies and increasing investments in agri-R&D and efficient value chains. India's future lies in empowering its citizens to innovate, invest, and generate sustainable incomes. Environmental sustainability has to be central to this journey. The quality of India's soil, water, and air needs to be protected to attain the Viksit Bharat vision by 2047. As we reflect with pride on our progress, it is equally important to look outward. While India has surpassed Pakistan and Bangladesh in per capita income — both in nominal and PPP terms — it remains far behind China, which began its journey around the same time. China's per capita income in 2025 is $13,690 (PPP $28,980), while India is at $2,880 (PPP $12,130). However, for India, democracy remains its compass, setting it apart from its neighbours. India's story is still a work in progress. The world watches it closely. It has lessons for many countries in Asia and Africa, and in many high-tech sectors, it competes with the best. The vision of the Modi government for a Viksit Bharat by 2047 can be realised only if we remain focused on accelerating growth in an inclusive manner, cut down bureaucratic hurdles, and adopt a scientific culture as the guiding principle, backed by investments. Gulati is Distinguished Professor and Juneja is a Research Fellow at ICRIER. Views are personal
Indian Express
2 hours ago
- Indian Express
By raising India's credit rating, S&P affirms optimism about growth
Last week, S&P Global Ratings raised India's long-term sovereign credit rating from BBB- to BBB. A BBB rating, which is at the lower end of the investment grade rung, indicates adequate capacity to repay obligations. S&P's rationale for the upgrade rests on the pillars of 'buoyant' growth, the 'commitment' to fiscal consolidation, improved 'quality' of spending and anchored inflationary expectations. Coming at a time of acute economic uncertainty, the ratings action — this is the first upgrade by the agency in 18 years — reaffirms India's growth prospects, underlines its resilience and its 'remarkable' recovery from the pandemic. S&P has projected the Indian economy to grow from around $3.9 trillion in 2024 to about $5.5 trillion by 2028, with growth averaging roughly 6.8 per cent over the next few years. This is marginally higher than other assessments, such as by the IMF. In its April World Economic Outlook, the Fund had pegged the economy to grow at around 6.3 per cent over this period. The ratings agency is strikingly less pessimistic about the impact of Trump's tariffs on the Indian economy, expecting it to be 'manageable' and not pose a 'material drag on growth'. This is based on its view that India is 'relatively less reliant on trade' (exports to US are roughly 2 per cent of GDP), and more on domestic consumption. There is, however, a cautionary note here. This assessment is at odds with views expressed by several analysts who believe that not only will there be a direct impact of high tariffs but that there will also be an indirect impact which could reflect in the form of lower investment flows into the country. The government's debt-deficit dynamics is another area of improvement flagged by the ratings agency. General government debt (Centre and states put together) had surged during the pandemic. However, since then, governments have stayed on the path of consolidation, bringing down their deficits and debts. The ratings agency expects the general government deficit to fall from 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26 to 6.6 per cent by 2028-29. Alongside, it projects the debt to GDP ratio to decline from 83 per cent in fiscal 2025 to 78 per cent by fiscal 2029, bringing it 'closer to its pre-pandemic level.' While progress has been faster than what was envisaged by the Finance Commission, the path of consolidation must continue to be adhered to. S&P has, in fact, cautioned about not doing so, saying that 'We may lower the ratings if we observe an erosion of political commitment to consolidate public finances.'
India.com
12 hours ago
- India.com
Foreign Secy Vikram Misri Meets Nepal PM Oli, Discusses Bilateral Cooperation
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri called on Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli on Sunday and discussed ways to further strengthen bilateral cooperation across various sectors. The Indian Embassy in Nepal, in a post on X, said: "Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri called on the Rt. Hon'ble Prime Minister of Nepal, Mr. K.P. Sharma Oli. FS reaffirmed the deep civilizational ties and strong India-Nepal partnership, and discussed ways to further strengthen cooperation across various sectors." Misri also called on Nepal's President Ramchandra Paudel and conveyed greetings from the Indian leadership. During the meeting, he briefed the President on the progress in bilateral ties. "Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri called on the Rt. Hon'ble President of Nepal Mr. Ramchandra Paudel and conveyed greetings of the Indian leadership, apart from briefing Hon'ble President on the progress in bilateral ties," Indian Embassy in Nepal posted on X. The Foreign Secretary also called on Nepal's Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba. During the meeting, both sides discussed ways to further enhance the multifaceted partnership between two nations across all sectors. "Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri called on on the Hon'ble Foreign Minister of Nepal Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba There was a substantial exchange of views on issues of mutual interest and ways to further enhance the multifaceted India-Nepal partnership, across all sectors", the mission posted on X. Earlier in the day, Misri arrived in Kathmandu for a two-day official visit at the invitation of his Nepal counterpart Amrit Bahadur Rai. Announcing his arrival, the Indian Embassy said: "Foreign Secretary of India Vikram Misri arrives in Kathmandu for an official visit, which reflects the tradition of regular high-level exchanges between India and Nepal, and reaffirms the commitment to the Neighbourhood First policy." In a statement issued on Friday ahead of Misri's visit, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said: "India and Nepal share strong and friendly ties, which have seen concrete progress in recent years in diverse areas of cooperation. India attaches high priority to its relations with Nepal under its Neighbourhood First policy. Foreign Secretary's upcoming visit continues the tradition of regular high-level exchanges between the two countries and will be an opportunity to further advance our bilateral ties." According to Nepal's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during the visit, the two Foreign Secretaries will hold discussions on various aspects of the Nepal-India partnership, with a focus on connectivity, development cooperation, and other matters of mutual interest. Foreign Secretary Misri was also scheduled to call on other high-level dignitaries in Kathmandu.
