This month could test buyers' hunger for new vehicles as non-tariffed inventories dry up

Chicago Tribune

a day ago

Consumers' hunger for new vehicles persisted in May, but affordability concerns could cool sales this month as dealerships start running short on cars and SUVs delivered ahead of President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs.
Ford Motor Co.'s U.S. sales increased 16% year-over-year last month. Hyundai Motor Co.'s grew 8%, while Kia Corp.'s rose 5%. Subaru Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp., however, did report declines of 10% and 19%, respectively. General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV will report second-quarter sales next month.
Spring typically marks a surge in vehicle sales, as tax returns hit bank accounts and the weather warms up. But consumer sentiment has plunged to some of its lowest levels in decades amid frequently changing rules on tariffs, and concerns that vehicle prices could climb later this year have led some consumers to pull forward their purchases. S&P Global Mobility forecasted May sales up 2% compared to a year ago, but predicted sales were slowing to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.7 million vehicles, down from 17.6 million from March to April.
'Consumer confidence is down, but the sales are not,' said Stephanie Brinley, associate director of research and analysis at S&P's AutoIntelligence. 'It doesn't usually work that way.'
With inventories down and non-tariffed models increasingly eaten up, the 'affordability bullet has not come through yet. There's a little bit of wait-and-see for what automakers really do,' Brinley added, noting June could start revealing the direction companies choose to take.
Some have given consumers confidence that they can wait a bit. Ford, through the July 4 weekend, is offering its customers thousands of dollars per vehicle in discounts typically reserved for its employees, though in early May, it did increase by up to $2,000 the price of its Mexico-built vehicles because of tariffs.
Stellantis — the parent of Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram and other brands — is offering a similar employee discount program, which it has extended through June. Volkswagen AG has said it will hold to its current manufacturer's suggested retail prices through June. GM CEO Mary Barra has said the automaker doesn't expect major price increases.
But imports are expected to slow, which will mean less availability of vehicles and encourage price increases, Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at dealer digital services provider Cox Automotive Inc., said in a May forecast.
'As more tariffed products replace existing inventory over the summer,' he said, 'prices are expected to be pushed higher, leading to slower sales in the coming months.'
Some dealers are already noticing some wariness. 'I haven't seen people this cautious since before, or during, the early stages of COVID,' said Jim Walen, the owner of Stellantis and Hyundai showrooms in Seattle.
The ports in Seattle look 'empty,' he said. Major layoffs in Washington by Microsoft Corp. haven't helped business either. Stellantis' employee discount program, however, is a boon: 'Anytime you can affect the transaction price, it's a good thing.'
Meanwhile, some dealers are going to pull back over revenue concerns, Walen said, but he's taking a different approach: 'We're very aggressive. We stock a lot, we're part of the community, we advertise a lot.'
Some pull-ahead sales still seem to be occurring over tariff concerns, but other shoppers are dropping out of the market altogether, said Ivan Drury, director of insights at auto information website Edmunds.com Inc. It may still be too early to determine if the circumstances will affect vehicle segments, but for now, there appears to be limited downgrading, as some customers would rather hold off than get a vehicle without certain features.
There are also wide-ranging views on tariffs, how they work and the impact they will have, he added: 'Not everybody's on the same page.'
There, however, are some trends. More consumers bought out their leases in May than in April, rather than leasing again. That could be a sign customers are seeking to limit increases to their monthly payments, but it also means they're stepping out of the market, Drury said.
He added that inventory is declining, but there's still too much stock — more than 2.5 million vehicles are on dealer lots — to see substantial price increases.
'The last time when we had people really get hit with price increases, where it took them back, was when we were down to 1 million units,' Drury said. 'And that's where you start to see that crossover between consumers getting a deal versus consumers just dealing and saying, 'OK, fine, I'll pay MSRP. I'll pay above.' '
The share of electric vehicles in the market was forecasted to continue slipping. EV share was about 7% in March and April, and S&P was predicting it would be 6.8% in May. Ford EV sales last month were down by a quarter, driven by decreases in the F-150 Lightning pickup and Transit commercial van.
Trump has pulled federal funding for EV charging infrastructure and directed his administration to reevaluate greenhouse gas tailpipe emission regulations and incentives that could be construed as an 'EV mandate.' The U.S. Senate last month also removed a waiver that enabled California and a contingent of states to enforce stricter zero-emission requirements on passenger vehicle sales. The result is an uncertain policy environment around EVs.
'They've been trending a little bit down the whole year,' Brinley said. 'It may be some people looking for an EV in January bought, expecting the incentives to go away, but they're not afraid of that anymore.'
Rhett Ricart, who has eight new-vehicle storefronts for brands from Ford and Chevrolet to Nissan and Mitsubishi in and near Columbus, Ohio, said tariffs and policy changes are on the minds of EV buyers, but he otherwise describes sales as normal.
'A possible tariff scare people had doesn't seem to exist,' Ricart said, adding about expectations that Trump or the judicial system will offer some clarity on import taxes: 'For any jitteriness, we will hopefully find out if the tariffs stick soon.'