Will asteroid 99942 Apophis hit Earth? Here's what NASA says

Time of India

7 days ago

Imagine looking up on a clear night in April 2029 and, without a telescope, spotting a moving dot streaking across the sky—a cosmic visitor closer than most satellites orbiting above us.
Now, you might be wondering, being in 2025 why are we talking about 2029, yes you guessed it right, it's because of the
99942 Apophis
. In the world of planetary science, few asteroids have drawn as much attention as 99942 Apophis.
Discovered in the year 2004, this near-Earth object stunned astronomers and the public alike with the early prediction that it could strike Earth in the decades ahead, and if we say exactly when it is going to happen then as per initial observations indicated, a probability of 0.027 (2.7%) that it would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth in 2029.
Let's decode about 99942 Apophis, before we go to any kind of speculation.
Nicknamed after the Egyptian god of chaos and darkness, Apophis quickly became a symbol of doomsday speculation. Also known as the 'God of Chaos' Asteroid, it is roughly a potentially hazardous object of 45 meters by 170 meters in size.
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Undo
The asteroid momentarily reached Level 4 on the Torino Scale, a hazard rating used by scientists to communicate impact risk—a record high at the time for any known asteroid. Level 4 implies a 'close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers,' which is rare and significant.
As per the new data collected by astronomers using both powerful telescopes and radar models, Apophis's orbit became increasingly precise with marked improvements, lowering the odds of an Earth impact. By 2006,
researchers
had firmly eliminated the possibility of an impact in 2029, and shortly thereafter, they also dismissed the keyhole scenario for 2036—a situation where a precise alignment during the 2029 flyby might have directed Apophis onto a collision path seven years later—as nearly impossible.
The information is still intriguing; however, the speculations are at the odds, indicating fluctuations.
If we talk about the listed-out speculations, the another one and the most updated version says simulations conducted in 2013 indicated that the Yarkovsky effect could cause asteroid 99942 Apophis to pass through a "keyhole" during its close approach in 2029, setting it on a trajectory to come near Earth again in 2051.
Following that, Apophis might pass through another keyhole leading to a possible Earth impact in 2068.
However, the probability of the Yarkovsky effect having precisely the required magnitude to produce this sequence of events was estimated to be only about two in a million. As of now, Apophis has been officially removed from risk lists maintained by
NASA
and the European Space Agency. There is no predicted impact risk for at least the next 100 years—a scientific consensus reached after 17 years of careful study.
However, fear of life is still persistent and people might wonder about what is going to happen on April 13, 2029. Despite the safety assurances, the day will be a historic day in asteroid studies. On this date, Apophis will pass at a distance of roughly 32,000km from Earth's surface, closer than many satellites and easily visible to the naked eye in millions of locations around the globe.
Even though at present times, there's no potential risk or harm, just imagine what if it hits the earth? While there's no threat now, it's worth exploring the kind of damage an Apophis-sized object could cause if it ever did strike.
Current models predict an explosion releasing over 1,000 megatons of TNT-equivalent energy—tens to hundreds of times more than the world's most powerful nuclear weapons. An impact in the ocean would generate enormous tsunamis, while a land strike could devastate a region the size of a major metropolitan area.
Instead of a doomsday scenario, Apophis has become one of science's most watched space objects, with NASA redirecting a spacecraft and international teams planning careful observations during the 2029 flyby.
99942 Apophis once symbolized a nightmare scenario a cosmic bullet with Earth in its sights. The asteroid's encounter will be historic not because of danger, but because it offers humanity a front-row seat to the wonders and challenges of our ever-changing solar system. There is no credible scenario in which Apophis could destroy Earth; however, it is still interesting to unleash the intricacies and probabilities of 99942 Apophis hitting the earth.
Only time could tell what is going to happen in the future, leaving behind the speculations.