Latest news with #Yarkovsky
Time of India
29-07-2025
- Science
- Time of India
Will asteroid 99942 Apophis hit Earth? Here's what NASA says
Imagine looking up on a clear night in April 2029 and, without a telescope, spotting a moving dot streaking across the sky—a cosmic visitor closer than most satellites orbiting above us. Now, you might be wondering, being in 2025 why are we talking about 2029, yes you guessed it right, it's because of the 99942 Apophis . In the world of planetary science, few asteroids have drawn as much attention as 99942 Apophis. Discovered in the year 2004, this near-Earth object stunned astronomers and the public alike with the early prediction that it could strike Earth in the decades ahead, and if we say exactly when it is going to happen then as per initial observations indicated, a probability of 0.027 (2.7%) that it would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029. However, additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth in 2029. Let's decode about 99942 Apophis, before we go to any kind of speculation. Nicknamed after the Egyptian god of chaos and darkness, Apophis quickly became a symbol of doomsday speculation. Also known as the 'God of Chaos' Asteroid, it is roughly a potentially hazardous object of 45 meters by 170 meters in size. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas Prices In Dubai Might Be More Affordable Than You Think Villas In Dubai | Search Ads Get Quote Undo The asteroid momentarily reached Level 4 on the Torino Scale, a hazard rating used by scientists to communicate impact risk—a record high at the time for any known asteroid. Level 4 implies a 'close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers,' which is rare and significant. As per the new data collected by astronomers using both powerful telescopes and radar models, Apophis's orbit became increasingly precise with marked improvements, lowering the odds of an Earth impact. By 2006, researchers had firmly eliminated the possibility of an impact in 2029, and shortly thereafter, they also dismissed the keyhole scenario for 2036—a situation where a precise alignment during the 2029 flyby might have directed Apophis onto a collision path seven years later—as nearly impossible. The information is still intriguing; however, the speculations are at the odds, indicating fluctuations. If we talk about the listed-out speculations, the another one and the most updated version says simulations conducted in 2013 indicated that the Yarkovsky effect could cause asteroid 99942 Apophis to pass through a "keyhole" during its close approach in 2029, setting it on a trajectory to come near Earth again in 2051. Following that, Apophis might pass through another keyhole leading to a possible Earth impact in 2068. However, the probability of the Yarkovsky effect having precisely the required magnitude to produce this sequence of events was estimated to be only about two in a million. As of now, Apophis has been officially removed from risk lists maintained by NASA and the European Space Agency. There is no predicted impact risk for at least the next 100 years—a scientific consensus reached after 17 years of careful study. However, fear of life is still persistent and people might wonder about what is going to happen on April 13, 2029. Despite the safety assurances, the day will be a historic day in asteroid studies. On this date, Apophis will pass at a distance of roughly 32,000km from Earth's surface, closer than many satellites and easily visible to the naked eye in millions of locations around the globe. Even though at present times, there's no potential risk or harm, just imagine what if it hits the earth? While there's no threat now, it's worth exploring the kind of damage an Apophis-sized object could cause if it ever did strike. Current models predict an explosion releasing over 1,000 megatons of TNT-equivalent energy—tens to hundreds of times more than the world's most powerful nuclear weapons. An impact in the ocean would generate enormous tsunamis, while a land strike could devastate a region the size of a major metropolitan area. Instead of a doomsday scenario, Apophis has become one of science's most watched space objects, with NASA redirecting a spacecraft and international teams planning careful observations during the 2029 flyby. 99942 Apophis once symbolized a nightmare scenario a cosmic bullet with Earth in its sights. The asteroid's encounter will be historic not because of danger, but because it offers humanity a front-row seat to the wonders and challenges of our ever-changing solar system. There is no credible scenario in which Apophis could destroy Earth; however, it is still interesting to unleash the intricacies and probabilities of 99942 Apophis hitting the earth. Only time could tell what is going to happen in the future, leaving behind the speculations.
Time of India
22-05-2025
- Science
- Time of India
NASA issues colossal Asteroid alert, 2003 MH4 to pass Earth this weekend: Should you worry?
A colossal asteroid , roughly the height of the Eiffel Tower, is set to pass Earth this weekend in what NASA calls a 'close encounter'. The object, named 387746 (2003 MH4), spans 335 metres wide — about the size of a 100-storey building — and will fly past our planet on 24 May at 4:07 PM IST (10:37 UTC). Although there's no threat of impact, its size and speed have triggered heightened monitoring by NASA. The asteroid is currently travelling at a blistering 30,060 km/h, fast enough to circle Earth in just over an hour. Given its orbit and proximity, it's classified as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA). 'This weekend's sighting is a warning, not a threat,' noted NASA's Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies ( CNEOS ), the body tasked with tracking thousands of space rocks that could pose risks. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Your IQ Is 140 If You Can Answer 10 Of These Questions Correctly IQ International Undo Why scientists are wary of MH4's orbit 2003 MH4 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids , which are known to cross Earth's orbital path. Its flyby distance is 6.67 million kilometres, or roughly 17 times the distance from Earth to the Moon. That might sound distant, but astronomers consider anything within 7.5 million kilometres and larger than 140 metres worthy of close observation. The real concern lies in what might happen in the future. Objects in space, especially those in the Apollo group, don't always stay on their predicted paths. Live Events Gravitational nudges from planets — or even the Yarkovsky effect (where sunlight gradually alters an asteroid's trajectory) — can shift orbits over time. A slight redirection could potentially turn a safe pass into a collision course in the years ahead. 'If one of these rocks ever hit Earth, the destruction would be enormous,' experts warn. 'The energy released would compare to thousands of nuclear bombs.' Such an event could cause regional devastation — fires, tsunamis, seismic shockwaves — and send dust clouds into the sky, blocking sunlight and triggering a possible 'impact winter'. Planetary Defence: From tracking to action The good news? Agencies like NASA and global partners are not taking these flybys lightly. CNEOS and other observatories are constantly watching the skies. The goal is not just early detection but also to prepare response strategies. Programmes are already exploring how to deflect or disrupt incoming asteroids before they become existential threats. This flyby acts as a timely reminder. While we're safe now, space remains unpredictable. Meanwhile, 12.5-Gorilla asteroid 2025 KF also has a close call with earth. In an unrelated but equally attention-grabbing event, another asteroid — 2025 KF — flew by at a distance that was even closer to Earth on Wednesday, 21 May, at a distance of just 111,000 kilometres. That's less than a third of the distance to the Moon. Discovered only this year, the asteroid is around 23 metres wide, which is equivalent to the combined height of 12 and a half fully grown gorillas, according to a playful comparison made using World Wildlife Fund figures. Despite its small size, scientists are treating it seriously. Some asteroids are not solid rocks but 'rubble piles' — loose clusters of rock and dust held together by gravity. These can change shape and size as they pass near a planet's gravitational field. 'When a rubble pile asteroid passes by a sufficient source of gravity, the pull of gravity will cause the rubble to shift,' researchers explain. If 2025 KF were to hit Earth, it would likely create a loud airburst explosion, but not one capable of causing large-scale destruction. Still, it's a firm reminder of how dynamic and volatile our cosmic neighbourhood can be. In a world increasingly focused on artificial intelligence and geopolitics, space remains an untameable frontier. Both MH4 and 2025 KF illustrate the sheer scale of what's moving above us — from 23-metre rubble clumps to towering boulders the size of skyscrapers. Neither asteroid poses a threat today. But as scientists warn, the risk isn't what we see — it's what might change. 'Our world is secure for the time being, but the universe has its own agenda,' said a spokesperson from NASA's science division. Asteroids may not often make headlines, but they shape the long-term survival odds of our planet. And for now, we're just lucky observers in a fast-moving solar system.
