Bybit & Block Scholes Report: Crypto Reacted to US-Vietnam Trade Deal; BTC Brushed $110k
BTC climbed above the $110,000 threshold while ETH pushed past $2,500, leading to heightened short-term volatility expectations as BTC's weekly implied volatility briefly surged. The derivatives landscape revealed interesting anomalies, including unexpectedly negative SOL perpetual funding rates despite recent ETF launch approvals and a persistent pattern where ETH options maintained roughly double the implied volatility levels of BTC equivalents throughout both the upward move and any retracements.
Key Insights:
BTC options volatility dipped to a 2-year low: BTC options markets experienced an unusual quiet period last week, with 7-day implied volatility dropping to just 26% on June 27 - the lowest level since mid-2023 at the $30,000 mark. This breakdown below the typical support levels was quickly reversed by the rally on July 2, which pushed volatility back up to 35% amid broader market optimism following the US-Vietnam trade agreement.
ETH volatility indicated further upside: ETH significantly outperformed BTC during the July 1-2 period, climbing from $2,400 to over $2,500 before surging another 6% on trade deal news. This price action drove ETH's 7-day at-the-money implied volatility up by a 10-point daily increase. Throughout this period, ETH options consistently maintained roughly double the implied volatility of comparable BTC.
ETH options skew shifted bullishly: The volatility term structure for the power duo of ETH and BTC remained relatively balanced through most of the week due to limited price movement. ETH displayed a more dramatic shift than BTC, with 7-day options now pricing in a 1.3% premium for out-of-the-money calls, completely reversing from the previous day's -1.9% put skew.
For detailed insights, readers may download the full report.
#Bybit / #TheCryptoArk / #BybitLearn
About Bybit
Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 70 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open, and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.
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Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have started to hit US automaker General Motors (GM), who reported a fall in second quarter core profit of 32% to $3 billion on Tuesday. The automaker said tariffs have sapped $1.1 billion from results as it continues to grapple with President Trump's challenging trade war. Reuters reports: Read more here. Canadian boycott of US spirits hurts broader alcohol sales: Trade group American imports to Canada have dropped sharply due to Canadian provinces' boycott of US spirits amid the ongoing trade war with the United States, according to a Canadian liquor trade group. Reuters reports: Read more here. American imports to Canada have dropped sharply due to Canadian provinces' boycott of US spirits amid the ongoing trade war with the United States, according to a Canadian liquor trade group. Reuters reports: Read more here. 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China's share of total value- added manufacturing of goods destined for the US via Vietnam and Mexico surged 22% in 2023 from 14% in 2017. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. India-US interim trade deal prospects dim ahead of tariff deadline: Sources Hopes for a US-India trade deal before the August 1 deadline are fading, with talks stuck over cuts to farm and dairy tariffs, according to sources. Reuters reports: Read more here. Hopes for a US-India trade deal before the August 1 deadline are fading, with talks stuck over cuts to farm and dairy tariffs, according to sources. Reuters reports: Read more here. Orange juice importer says Trump's Brazil tariffs will raise US prices Orange juice prices join the list of products that could see price increases as a result of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Bloomberg reports: A US orange juice distributor is suing over President Donald Trump's move to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil starting next month. 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President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline is steadily approaching, and trading partners are preparing for multiple outcomes. Brazil, for example, is increasingly open to the possibility that a trade deal won't be reached in time. Reuters reported: Read more here. US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs touts 'positive impact' of tariffs Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) CEO Lourenco Goncalves praised President Trump's protectionist policies on Monday, stating that the 25%-50% tariffs on foreign steel imports have had a "positive impact" on the US steel and automotive industries. The Section 232 steel tariffs "have played a significant role in supporting the domestic steel industry," Goncalves said during the company's earnings call. 'So far, there's no indication that the Section 232 tariffs will be used as a bargaining chip by the Trump administration as leverage in trade deals with other countries," Goncalves added. "We appreciate that and fully expect that the administration will keep in place and enforce these Section 232 tariffs." Goncalves said the only place where it's having a problem is with Stelco, the Canadian steel company it acquired in November 2024. The CEO urged Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to implement similar protectionist policies, saying that other efforts to curb unfair trade practices were "insufficient." Cleveland-Cliffs stock soared 11% in early trading Monday after the company reported record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons for the three months ended June 30. Read more about how Cleveland-Cliffs' stock is trading. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) CEO Lourenco Goncalves praised President Trump's protectionist policies on Monday, stating that the 25%-50% tariffs on foreign steel imports have had a "positive impact" on the US steel and automotive industries. The Section 232 steel tariffs "have played a significant role in supporting the domestic steel industry," Goncalves said during the company's earnings call. 'So far, there's no indication that the Section 232 tariffs will be used as a bargaining chip by the Trump administration as leverage in trade deals with other countries," Goncalves added. "We appreciate that and fully expect that the administration will keep in place and enforce these Section 232 tariffs." Goncalves said the only place where it's having a problem is with Stelco, the Canadian steel company it acquired in November 2024. The CEO urged Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to implement similar protectionist policies, saying that other efforts to curb unfair trade practices were "insufficient." Cleveland-Cliffs stock soared 11% in early trading Monday after the company reported record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons for the three months ended June 30. Read more about how Cleveland-Cliffs' stock is trading. Bessent: Trump more concerned about quality of deals than making deals by Aug. 1 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the US wouldn't rush to make trade deals ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline for many of President Trump's sweeping tariffs to kick in. "We're not going to rush for the sake of doing deals," Bessent told CNBC in an interview. More from Reuters: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the US wouldn't rush to make trade deals ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline for many of President Trump's sweeping tariffs to kick in. "We're not going to rush for the sake of doing deals," Bessent told CNBC in an interview. More from Reuters: Read more here. More signs that Europe is hardening its stance We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) how the EU is readying its plans for retaliation in case a trade deal with the US fails. The Wall Street Journal has a big report out today with some more details of those plans — and details on how delicate negotiations are on even thinner ice, as President Trump keeps wanting more. The report said the EU got a "surprise" when US officials said Trump would want a higher baseline tariff in any deal, likely north of 15%, after months of talks around a 10% baseline. That apparently prompted Germany, Europe's largest economy, to swing to more of an alignment with France, which has been pushing a harder line throughout the negotiations. 'All options are on the table,' a German official said. The official said there was still time to negotiate a deal but added, 'If they want war, they will get war.' More from the report: Read more here. We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) how the EU is readying its plans for retaliation in case a trade deal with the US fails. The Wall Street Journal has a big report out today with some more details of those plans — and details on how delicate negotiations are on even thinner ice, as President Trump keeps wanting more. The report said the EU got a "surprise" when US officials said Trump would want a higher baseline tariff in any deal, likely north of 15%, after months of talks around a 10% baseline. That apparently prompted Germany, Europe's largest economy, to swing to more of an alignment with France, which has been pushing a harder line throughout the negotiations. 'All options are on the table,' a German official said. The official said there was still time to negotiate a deal but added, 'If they want war, they will get war.' More from the report: Read more here. Stellantis warns of $2.7B loss as tariffs bite Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) warned on Monday that it expects a 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) net loss for the first half of 2025, hit by restructuring costs, ebbing sales, and an initial hit from US tariffs. The Chrysler maker's US-listed shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket, mirroring a drop in its stock in Milan. Reuters reports: Read more here. Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) warned on Monday that it expects a 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) net loss for the first half of 2025, hit by restructuring costs, ebbing sales, and an initial hit from US tariffs. The Chrysler maker's US-listed shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket, mirroring a drop in its stock in Milan. Reuters reports: Read more here. EU to prepare its retaliation plan as US hardens its stance on trade talks EU negotiators are scrambling to make a trade agreement with the US as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline closes in. But they are also stepping up preparations to strike back if the two sides fail to secure a deal. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. EU negotiators are scrambling to make a trade agreement with the US as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline closes in. But they are also stepping up preparations to strike back if the two sides fail to secure a deal. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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Treasuries Fall as Haven Appeal Wanes on US-Japan Trade Deal
By Updated on Save Treasuries were poised to end a five-day streak of gains Wednesday as demand for havens waned after the US inked a trade deal with Japan. The yield on US 10-year debt rose three basis points to 4.38%, halting a week-long slide. Germany's benchmark borrowing costs were three basis points higher at 2.62% ahead of a sale of 10-year debt while UK equivalents were five basis points up at 4.62% following a sale of 15-year securities.
