Will Trump's new spending law make college tuition more expensive?

USA Today

a day ago

Lending caps and Medicaid cuts in the new reconciliation law will likely raise costs for students nationwide, experts say.
WASHINGTON – Vashti Trujillo was hoping to get a master's degree. But she's worried that President Donald Trump just put it out of reach.
The president's massive tax and spending law is set to slash the federal student loan programs the 21-year-old junior at Colorado State University Pueblo would likely need to pay for one. Education experts also predict the legislation will put strains on the budgets of many public universities like the one Trujillo attends. That's because the law may push state legislatures to reroute funds from higher education to safety-net programs, such as Medicaid, which the spending law cuts drastically.Those changes could ultimately raise tuition prices for students like Trujillo – or force them to put plans for graduate school on hold to help support family members who've lost their health care.
"This bill is attacking all angles of a student's life," she said.
Trujillo, who is double majoring in mechatronics engineering and data analytics, is among many U.S. college students wondering whether Trump's first signature legislative achievement in his second term may raise costs for them.
The unease isn't just hitting students; it's omnipresent for college administrators. Federal funding is dwindling. The supply of tuition-paying students is starting what will be a protracted decline. And the Trump administration's immigration enforcement policies have shaken the college-going prospects of international students, a population many U.S. universities need to survive.
Read more: International college students bring billions to the U.S. Here's why that may change.
While Trump's big spending measure stabilizes some funding streams for higher education programs, including Pell Grants, it mostly takes money away at a time when even the richest of universities are already under financial strain.
In the years to come, new student loan repayment programs created by the law will raise bills for millions of borrowers. Universities will feel a need to shift more support toward graduate students and away from undergrads. Many state legislatures, meanwhile, may deprioritize support for higher education.
Still, the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are confident the new budget law will bolster college oversight and, ultimately, lower prices for students.
"By establishing loan limits, the bill closes the open spigot of federal subsidies that drive up college costs and burden families," Education Secretary Linda McMahon posted on X after the Senate passed the measure. "The bill also simplifies and streamlines student loan repayment for millions of borrowers."
Read more: What will student loans look like after Trump's spending bill is signed?
Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College, called the spending law "a harbinger of challenges ahead" for higher education.
"Whether public or private, colleges and universities are deeply dependent on funding from a federal government, which has spent far beyond its means," he said.
Ending Grad PLUS, capping Parent PLUS
While they're not coming right away, big changes to the student loan system will begin to impact borrowers in 2026.
Parents will soon face new limits on how much they can borrow in federal loans to finance their children's education. (The new cap is $20,000 per year per student, with a $65,000 total limit.)
After July 1, 2026, there will be just two repayment programs for anyone who takes out new loans, while some plans for current borrowers will sunset in 2028.
There will be new caps on graduate student borrowing, too. And the Grad PLUS program, which for decades has helped students pursue careers in medicine, law and other training-intensive careers, will be unavailable to new students. According to the Association of American Medical Colleges, about half of all medical students take out Grad PLUS loans annually, which are based almost entirely on the cost of attendance.
Kim Cook, the CEO of the National College Attainment Network, a college access group, said any losses in grad students could have eventual trickle-down effects for colleges' larger financial aid budgets.
For the time being, however, Cook said many college counselors are focusing this summer on clearing up widespread confusion about what the law does – and doesn't – impact. Students, she said, don't all seem to understand what forms of financial aid remain in place.
"Federal student aid still exists," she said. "Pell Grants still exist."
That confusion alone, she said, could prevent some students from going to college at all.
Medicaid, SNAP cuts tied to college costs
Arguably, the most controversial components of the new law are the reductions in major safety net programs.
A roughly $1 trillion funding cut to Medicaid, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will kick millions of Americans off their health insurance, takes effect in 2028. More than 20 million Americans will also lose some or all of their benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.
Read more: How Trump's tax bill could cut Medicaid for millions of Americans
The ripple effects of the Medicaid and food stamp provisions will reverberate across public colleges and universities. In the absence of federal funding, state legislatures will be forced to fill the gaps. As lawmakers look to balance their budgets, savings will be needed elsewhere.
When that happens, funding for higher education is often the first thing on the chopping block, said Tom Harnisch, the vice president for government relations at the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association.
"States are just going to have to make really difficult choices," he said. "And historically, what we've seen is that when they have to make difficult choices, higher education bears the brunt."
In Colorado, state lawmakers are already shortchanging colleges' requests for money to help make up for federal funding cuts. But Trujillo, the CSU Pueblo student, doesn't have much time in between her multiple jobs to worry about that.
She's the first in her family to attend college. Through Pell Grants, scholarships and state and institutional financial aid, she's managed to avoid taking out any student loans, public or private, so far. She knows a master's degree would probably lead to a higher salary in the engineering field, but the thought of potentially having to rely on private lenders to get one makes her nervous.
"I'm very scared of private loans," she said. "I've heard horror stories."
Zachary Schermele is an education reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at [e-mail]. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.