China's exports up 7.2 per cent amid US trade tensions
Global traders and investors are waiting to see whether the world's two largest economies can agree on a durable trade deal by August 12 or if global supply chains will again be upended by the return of import levies exceeding 100 per cent.
US President Donald Trump has raised the prospect of further tariffs, including a 40 per cent duty on goods rerouted to the US via transit hubs, that took effect on Thursday, as well as a 100 per cent levy on chips and pharmaceutical products, and an additional 25 per cent tax on goods from countries that buy Russian oil.
China's outbound shipments rose 7.2 per cent year-on-year in July, customs data showed on Thursday, beating a forecast 5.4 per cent increase in a Reuters poll of economists and accelerating from June's 5.8 per cent growth.
China's trade war truce with the US - the world's top consumer market - ends next week, although Trump hinted further tariffs may come Beijing's way due to its continuing purchases of Russian hydrocarbons.
Imports grew 4.1 per cent, defying economists' expectations for a 1.0 per cent fall and climbing from a 1.1 per cent rise in June, pointing to improving domestic demand as policymakers step up efforts to encourage households to boost spending.
"The trade data suggests that the Southeast Asian markets play an ever more important role in US-China trade," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"But it's not all about the transhipments that Trump seeks to stop, ASEAN countries are also importing raw materials and components from China before exporting finished products to the US," he added.
China's exports to the US fell 21.67 per cent last month from a year earlier, the data showed, while shipments to ASEAN rose 16.59 per cent over the same period.
Trump said on Tuesday the US was close to a trade deal with China and that he would meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping before the end of the year if the world's two largest economies could come to an agreement.
China's July trade surplus narrowed to $US98.24 billion ($A151.02 billion) from $US114.77 billion in June.
Separate data from the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis on Tuesday showed the US trade gap with China shrank to its lowest in more than 21 years in June.
Chinese government advisers are stepping up calls to make the household sector's contribution to broader economic growth a top priority at Beijing's upcoming five-year policy plan, as trade tensions and deflation threaten the outlook.
And top leaders have vowed to step up regulation of aggressive price-cutting by Chinese companies that is pushing prices ever lower.
But economists warn that reversing the current deflationary slump will be far more difficult than during the last round of supply-side reforms a decade ago, as the downturn now poses a broader threat to employment, which Chinese leaders have emphasised is a core component of social stability.
Reaching an agreement with the United States - and with the European Union, which has accused China of producing and selling goods too cheaply - would give Chinese officials more room to advance their reform agenda.
with DPA
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Norwegian pipeline gas is the world's cleanest, with a lower greenhouse footprint than LNG from Texas. The EU would have to scrap its methane regulation to meet Trump's demands, which is part of his purpose. As for buying more American oil, EU refineries cannot handle much more low-sulphur US crude. It is the wrong sort. You do not have to be a free trader in the school of Adam Smith to see that America will be the chief economic victim of its own trade taxes and capricious market meddling. But the greater damage is geopolitical. That hits all of us in the fraternity of open democracies. Loading Britons can allow themselves a wry smile that Trump has just done to Brussels what it did to us in the Brexit wars. The EU used its political leverage over the UK at a vulnerable moment, weaponising emotions over the Irish border and fear of a cliff-edge no-deal. At least we won't have to listen to any more insufferable rants about how the EU is a big, mighty bloc that calls all the shots. 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