IAF will now have almost same number of fighter squadrons as Pakistan's air force. And it can get worse
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From October, India's fighter jet strength will drop to 29 squadrons, bringing it close to Pakistan's 25—a near-parity that raises concern, particularly with China's air fleet at a much higher 66 squadrons. A typical squadron comprises 18 to 20 jets. In terms of aircraft count, India will have around 522 jets, while Pakistan has about 450, and China nearly 1,200.Air chief A P Singh said India needs to induct at least 40 fighter jets every year. That, currently, looks worse than impossible, says a Times of India report by Rudroneel Ghosh.Some experts told TOI that unless India ups its game — more squadrons with old fighter jets, Mirage, Jaguar and other MiG variants, will be phased out — it will have the same number of fighter squadrons as Pakistan in less than 10 years. The immediate trigger for this concern is the Indian Air Force retiring its last two MiG-21 squadrons . However, the underlying issues have been developing over several years.The scrapping of the 126-aircraft Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal in 2015 had a major impact on the Indian Air Force's combat strength. While India later procured 36 Rafale jets through a government-to-government deal with France, it fell short of addressing the needs of the IAF's ageing fleet. A fresh order for 26 Rafales has been placed — but for the Indian Navy.There are plans to buy 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft. But nothing's moved on this.India had banked on the indigenous Tejas Light Combat Aircraft to ensure air superiority over Pakistan . However, the Indian Air Force currently operates only about two squadrons—38 Tejas Mark-1 jets. The delivery of 83 upgraded Tejas Mark-1A aircraft by HAL has missed several production deadlines, and not a single jet has entered service yet. Delays in receiving GE's F-404 engines, along with unresolved issues related to integrating Astra air-to-air missiles and critical avionics, have contributed to the setback.IAF hopes another 97 Tejas Mark-1A will come through, along with another 108 Tejas Mark-2 variant with the more powerful GE F-414 engine. The engine is to be co-produced in India with 80% transfer of technology. But it's all on paper now.Then, there's the proposed 5th generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. The most that can be said about this is that it's an idea, says TOI.A major challenge facing the 'Made in India' defence programme is the lack of an indigenous fighter jet engine. The earlier Kaveri engine project could not meet the required standards. Developing modern jet engines is a highly complex task involving thousands of components designed to operate under extreme pressure and temperatures—and demands an investment of several billion dollars.Essentially, an engine has four parts — compressor, combustion chamber, turbine and nozzle.The hot part of the engine — combustion chamber and turbine blades — is tricky to get right, requiring advanced ceramics. But India's talent depth in material science is shallow. Only a few thousand materials engineers graduate each year. "India even struggles to manufacture basic stuff like ceramic-coated electrodes, required in the production of green hydrogen. These are imported. So, forget about fighter jet engines made here — at least in the near future," says TOI.Many defence experts believe that traditional military assets like fighter jets and warships may be losing relevance due to the evolving nature of warfare. Ukraine's use of drones in its conflict with Russia has highlighted this shift—low-cost UAVs have successfully targeted Russian warships and fighter jets. Ukraine is expected to produce 4 million drones this year. While India's armed forces have expressed intent to scale up drone use, challenges remain. Domestic production must keep pace with rapidly advancing drone technology, and the military will need dedicated drone units or a specialised drone corps to operate them effectively.Those who challenge the drones-are-it strategy point out that India's strategicsecurity theatre is very different from Ukraine's, and fighter jets provide a penetrative, offensive capability that drones can't, at least not now. So, the reality that India and Pakistan are almost at parity when it comes to fighter jets is still scary, TOI adds.(With inputs from TOI)
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