Why The 2025 NBA Offseason Might Be Loaded With Blockbuster Trades

Forbes

2 days ago

With the 2025 NBA Finals underway, 28 teams have already turned their full attention to the offseason. Free agency is largely shaping up to be a dud, as the Brooklyn Nets are the only team projected to have considerable cap space, but the league could still have its fair share of fireworks in the coming weeks.
"It's gonna be a crazy summer," one Western Conference executive told longtime NBA insider Jake Fischer. "There's going to be a lot of movement."
According to multiple reports, it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Phoenix Suns plan to trade Kevin Durant. ESPN's Brian Windhorst recently said they'd likely do so between now and the 2025 NBA draft. Durant might not be the only star on the move this summer, though.
Between an unpredictable Finals matchup, a pair of shocking jumps in the draft lottery and NBA teams' ongoing battle with the new collective bargaining agreement, the stage is set for explosive player movement across the league.
The Suns' intention to trade Durant might be the NBA's worst-kept secret. According to ESPN's Shams Charania, he's expected to have "a robust market of approximately four to six seriously interested teams this offseason."
However, another domino might need to fall first before Durant conversations take off.
In mid-May, Charania reported that "for the first time in his career," Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo "is open-minded about exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining in Milwaukee or playing elsewhere." Damian Lillard's Achilles injury and the Bucks' third straight first-round playoff loss raised questions about their ability to build a championship contender around him moving forward, although Fischer recently said executives are increasingly skeptical that he'll actually ask out.
Antetokounmpo could be the domino that triggers a deluge of offseason activity either way. Teams interested in acquiring him or Durant might not want to move on to the latter until they're sure Antetokounmpo is staying in Milwaukee. Durant figures to cost far less from an asset perspective, as he's heading into the final year of his contract and turns 37 at the end of September, whereas Antetokounmpo just turned 30 in December and has two guaranteed years left on his deal.
Once Antetokounmpo decides what he wants to do, the floodgates should open around the league. The Boston Celtics figure to be in cost-cutting mode in the wake of Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury, which means Kristaps Porziņģis, Jrue Holiday and/or Derrick White could all be on the move. ESPN's Brian Windhorst recently said there's "some belief" that the Cleveland Cavaliers would be open to moving All-Star point guard Darius Garland "under the right circumstances." That alone has the potential to drastically reshape the Eastern Conference hierarchy.
Western Conference teams could also get in on the fun. According to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, 'rival NBA executives are monitoring the trio of Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan with the belief that Sacramento will explore the possibility of trading at least one of those players either this offseason or before the trade deadline in February.' Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports reported the New Orleans Pelicans have "no untouchables" and are "gauging the market for everyone on their roster."
Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers also have plenty of veterans on expiring contracts to dangle as trade bait, from John Collins (player option), Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson in Utah to Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III and Matisse Thybulle in Portland.
That process could begin in the days leading up to the draft.
Whichever team landed the No. 1 pick in this year's draft figured to stand pat, take Duke forward Cooper Flagg and not look back. The Dallas Mavericks, who entered lottery night with only a 1.8% chance of winning said pick before doing exactly that, "have made clearly publicly and privately that they plan on selecting Flagg," according to Charania and ESPN's Jonathan Givony.
The real excitement could begin as early as the No. 2 overall pick, which the San Antonio Spurs currently hold.
Two years ago, the Spurs landed the No. 1 overall pick and spent it on French wunderkind Victor Wembanyama, who has already lived up to his predraft hype and then some. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting as a rookie after averaging a league-leading 3.6 blocks in only 29.7 minutes per game, and he was the heavy front-runner for this year's DPOY award before he was shut down after the All-Star break due to deep vein thrombosis.
In Wembanyama, the Spurs already have their franchise cornerstone. They're now figuring out how best to build around him, although the No. 2 overall pick may complicate that to some extent.
Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper is the clear consensus second-best prospect in this year's draft behind Flagg. However, the Spurs already spent the No. 4 overall pick last year on fellow guard Stephon Castle, who proceeded to win Rookie of the Year this past season. And at this year's trade deadline, they acquired former All-Star point guard De'Aaron Fox in a trade with the Kings.
Long-range shooting is not a strength for any of Fox, Castle or Harper at the moment. NBA teams can never have enough high-level playmakers these days, so the Spurs might just take the best-player-available approach, select Harper and worry about his fit alongside Fox and Castle later. But if they're unsure about how that trio might mesh, they could always look to shop the pick as well.
The Philadelphia 76ers, who own the No. 3 overall pick, may likewise be considering trading it. Team president Daryl Morey has repeatedly declared that he plans to make the Sixers younger and "more dynamic" this offseason, so the Sixers likely won't trade out of the draft entirely, according to Fischer. However, they "are expected to at least listen to trade-down opportunities," he added.
Meanwhile, a handful of other teams have multiple first-round picks that they could seek to package to move up in the order. Would the Sixers take the Nos. 5 and 21 picks from the Jazz in exchange for No. 3? What about Nos. 6 and 18 from Washington? The Brooklyn Nets have four first-round picks (No. 8, No. 19, No. 26 and No. 27) that they could dangle. And the Thunder, who are three wins away from this year's championship, have two more first-round picks (Nos. 15 and 24) than they do open roster spots for next season.
Combined with the number of star players who could be on the move, the unique draft order could lend itself to some major fireworks on June 25.
A handful of teams could also use this offseason to get ahead of business next year. Those with stars who are set to become free agents in 2026 might have to decide whether to recommit now or move them now rather than risk losing them for nothing next summer.
Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. could be the big swing piece on this front. After not making an All-NBA team, Jackson is only eligible for a four-year, $146.8 million extension unless the Grizzlies create cap space to renegotiate his contract first. If he becomes a free agent in 2026, he'll be eligible for a five-year, $296.0 million contract with the Grizzlies or a four-year, $219.4 million contract with any other team.
For now, multiple teams could carve out significant cap space in 2026. If the Grizzlies can't get Jackson signed to an extension this offseason, would they risk going into next season with him still on the roster? Or might they decide that they're better served trading him this summer and maximizing their return on him?
The same goes for Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young, who has a $49.0 million player option for the 2026-27 campaign. Zach Lowe of The Ringer said he didn't think "there's a great market for him," but what happens if Young and the Hawks can't come to terms on an extension this summer? It might only take one offense-starved team to make them reconsider whether to continue building around him moving forward.
That's one of the main reasons why the Kings moved Fox at this year's trade deadline. He declined to sign a three-year, $165 million extension last fall because he'd be in position for a larger deal this offseason, but it became increasingly clear to the Kings that he wasn't planning to sign an extension this year, either. Fox's agent, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, eventually told the Kings "that it would be wise to move him sooner rather than later" with that in mind, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic.
The Dallas Mavericks also cited that as justification for their controversial decision to trade Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers.
"We really feel like we got ahead of what was going to be a tumultuous summer, him being eligible for the supermax and also a year away from him being able to opt out of any contract," Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison told Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News. "And so we really felt like we got out in front of that."
Christian Clark, Mike Vorkunov and Fred Katz of The Athletic later reported that the Mavericks never planned to offer Dončić the five-year, $345 million supermax extension that he would have been eligible for this offseason, but that's beside the point. Other teams may decide to follow in the footsteps of Dallas and Sacramento this offseason if they're unsure of their ability to retain their own stars beyond 2025-26.
All of those ingredients combined set the stage for what projects to be an explosive offseason.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Follow Bryan on Bluesky.