Lowered Cap Increase Could Lead To Heightened Draft Pick Value In 2026

Forbes

3 days ago

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 25: Commissioner Adam Silver poses with 2025 NBA Draft Prospects prior to ... More the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 25, 2025 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by) Getty Images
As the NBA's salary cap projections for the 2026-2027 season has been lowered, with the 10% increase now projected as just a 7% increase, it raises questions in regards to the ripple effect such an event would cause.
One element that could be influenced by the change is the value of draft picks.
Set salaries
Rookie contracts have been set for decades, at a significantly lower price tag than established contracts, and the main key is the long-term security, particularly among first-round selections, where teams have four years of team control.
In a financial situation, where teams will now have less flexibility, the value of draft picks could be set at a premium, especially by teams closing in on the first or second apron.
It makes sense, given the aforementioned longevity of the contracts.
Even Cooper Flagg, the top pick of the 2025 NBA Draft, is only making 8.9% of the salary cap in his first year, a percentage that doesn't dramatically change over the course of four years.
There is a reasonable chance that Flagg, viewed as a generational talent, is going to make an All-Star team, perhaps several, during that four-year span, which means the Mavericks, by all intents and purposes, would have one of the best contracts on their hand.
That's the type of value teams would love to acquire, and that's doable even without the element of a generational player.
Say a team picks at 15th, right in the middle of the first round, as the Oklahoma City Thunder did in the draft last month.
They picked Thomas Sorber, who will earn just 3.0% of the salary cap this season, and again, that percentage won't dramatically change during his initial contract.
If teams get even a backup level played at that spot, that's easily a win at just three percent of the cap, meaning value isn't exclusively tied to players nearing stardom.
Major value
Due to the above, teams willing to fork over picks next summer could ask for the moon in return. The argument they can make is fairly simple.
"The cap didn't jump the full 10% as expected, so you have less money to work with. We can help with that."
It's a bargaining tactic, and it's a genuine benefit for a costly team.
One scenario that mid-tier teams, selecting in the late lottery stage, should look for is expensive teams giving up future picks, unprotected, in order to help their books immediately.
If a team nearing the second apron prioritize a cost-controlled asset, the trading team will have every right to ask for a pick with little to no protection as compensation, as they'll be fully aware of the benefits of having cheap production.
We'll see how it all ends up working out, but teams that are significantly below the apron levels, and who aren't in a rush, could in theory make out like bandits in about 11 months.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com , PBPStats , Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference . All salary information via Spotrac . All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook .