U'khand emerging as hotspot for extreme climate events: Study
The study flagged alarming trends in rainfall variability, surface runoff and rising temperatures, alongside a sharp spike in cloudbursts and flash floods, especially since 2010.
Conducted by geoscientists from Doon University, Wadia Institute and Delhi University, the study -- published in the July issue -- analysed nearly four decades (1982-2020) of climate data using satellite-based models. The findings suggested that Uttarakhand is increasingly vulnerable to both monsoon and non-monsoon extreme weather, driven by a complex interplay of regional climatic shifts and global phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Researchers observed a distinct increase in extreme rainfall and surface runoff events post-2010. From 1998 to 2009, the state saw rising temperatures and unusually low rainfall -- a trend that coincided with weakened global climate oscillations. But after 2010, the pattern reversed, particularly in central and western Uttarakhand, accompanied by a surge in cloudbursts.
"Analysing cloudburst and extreme rainfall events in Uttarakhand between 1970 and 2021 reveals a clear increase in frequency after 2010," said YP Sundriyal, professor at Doon University and lead author of the study.
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The study examined 140 extreme hydro-meteorological events, most clustered between 30°-31°N latitude and 79°–80.5°E longitude -- a zone aligned with the Main Central Thrust (MCT), a major geological fault line. Rudraprayag and Bageshwar districts emerged as key hotspots, owing to the region's geological fragility and the influence of orographic lifting.
While seasonal temperature variations were less erratic than rainfall, consistent warming was observed in the northern glaciated zones, especially in upper Rudraprayag and Bageshwar.
These areas also showed increasing surface radiative temperature, which the researchers said may correlate with glacial retreat and heightened flood risk.
Notably, the study challenged the prevailing assumption that extreme rainfall events in the region are primarily driven by positive ENSO or Indian Ocean Dipole phases. "The relationship is more nuanced than previously thought," the authors noted, suggesting that local moisture transport patterns and Himalayan topography may exert stronger influence on regional climate dynamics.
The authors called for urgent district-level climate adaptation planning, better early warning systems and enhanced monitoring in high-risk zones, especially as Uttarakhand continues to face cascading climate challenges.
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