India's solar makers see opportunities, risks in trade turmoil
The escalating global trade war stoked by US tariffs may open up new business opportunities for India's solar industry, according to local manufacturers.Steep barriers on Chinese goods and the latest round of duties targeting solar exports from four South East Asian nations hosting Chinese factories are set to squeeze China's dominant companies out of the US solar market. That may boost India's export prospects, especially for solar cells that the US needs to feed its growing module making capacity.Trade tensions 'could prove to be a net positive for India,' said Deepesh Nanda, president of the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association. The country 'is well-positioned to support US markets with high-quality, domestically manufactured solar cells — fully traceable and aligned with US compliance standards.'But the opportunity comes with caveats.'The first risk is India's excessive dependence on China for upstream products and machinery,' according to Rohit Gadre, a Mumbai-based analyst for BloombergNEF. 'In an escalating trade war, there's always the risk that China could snap the supply chain.'Industry officials who spoke with Bloomberg News echoed those concerns. Most Indian solar manufacturers buy raw materials from top-tier Chinese suppliers, who are more likely to be guided by Beijing's directions on trade, the industry officials said, asking not to be identified amid ongoing trade talks between India and the US. While lower-rung suppliers may still be available, sourcing from them might affect quality, they said.Meanwhile, manufacturers are rushing to expand solar cells capacity in India, driven by a non-tariff import barrier set to kick in from next year.The country's solar cells capacity reached 25 gigawatts at the end of March, almost tripling from a year earlier. While much of that will be used in the domestic market, a plan to double the capacity may create a surplus that could find its way into the export markets, including the US, the industry association's Nanda said.
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