Newsom will move to redraw California map if Texas redistricts, teeing up national fight
The Texas proposal, backed by President Donald Trump, looks to flip five seats held by Democrats, according to a draft unveiled Wednesday in the state House. The California proposal would aim to do the same, with lawmakers set to advance a map targeting five Republican incumbents, according to two people who have spoken to Newsom or his office about it. They were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the private conversations.
[Texas House Republicans unveil new congressional map that looks to pick up five GOP seats]
Map makers are looking at options that would target Republican Reps. Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, Doug LaMalfa and David Valadao, according to a person associated with Newsom's redistricting efforts.
Once approved by the Democratic-controlled California Legislature, where Newsom has been successfully lobbying lawmakers for weeks, the maps would likely be put to California voters in a statewide ballot measure. The referendum plan is subject to change and has yet to receive final approval from Newsom, who has also publicly suggested the Legislature could change the maps without voter approval.
California has an independent redistricting commission that was enshrined in the state's constitution. But those close to the process believe maps passed by way of a ballot measure or the Legislature's approval would withstand legal scrutiny because the independent commission is only tasked with drawing new lines once every decade — leaving the process for mid-decade redistricting open, supporters argue.
This is not a new idea. Representatives for Newsom and key House Democrats have been meeting for weeks to discuss possible Democratic responses to Texas' redistricting plan, The Texas Tribune previously reported.
California members of Congress met with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffires about redistricting earlier this month. Many of the Democrats in the state's congressional delegation have signaled their support for a retaliatory round of map-drawing, The Texas Tribune previously reported. Jeffries is scheduled to meet with Democratic state lawmakers from Texas later Wednesday.
The California plan has caught the attention of the White House, with Vice President JD Vance calling the state's current congressional maps an 'outrageous' gerrymander. If the five-seat plan passes in Sacramento and is successful in flipping seats, it would give the Democrats a striking 48-4 advantage in their congressional delegation.
Any retaliation by California threatens to set off a redistricting domino effect around the country, as Trump has openly called for other red states to follow Texas' lead in adding more Republican pickups, while Democratic governors — including New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker — are eyeing retaliation.
The stakes are enormous: Losing control of the House would almost certainly subject Trump to a barrage of investigations and political attacks from Democrats wielding newfound subpoena power — and the ability to hold up Trump's legislative agenda.
Hochul has left the door open to retaliatory redistricting in her state, where Democrats control both chambers of the Legislature and a handful of lawmakers have already introduced legislation that would allow for mid-decade redistricting. On Wednesday, reacting to Texas' map proposal, Hochul wrote on social media she wouldn't "sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal our nation's future," without offering any further detail.
In any case, a newly drawn New York map would have to overcome legal obstacles that have forced multiple of the state's political maps to be redrawn in recent years.
Nearly two dozen Texas House Democrats, meanwhile, have embarked on three trips in the last week to meet with Democratic governors in other states — Newsom and Pritzker on Friday, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham on Tuesday — to discuss the redistricting state of play.
The field trips have signaled the prospect that Democratic lawmakers could eventually leave the state en masse to deny the Legislature enough members to conduct business, including passing new congressional maps. Texas Democrats adopted that very maneuver in an unsuccessful bid to stop a similar mid-decade redistricting gambit in 2003, and again to oppose a 2021 GOP voting bill, which also eventually passed.
After a decisive November defeat for Democrats, in which they lost the Senate and White House and failed to recapture the House, the party has been grappling for a strategy to respond to the Trump administration and GOP-controlled Congress.
The Democrats have long advocated for independent commissions that draw fairer maps than the partisan-controlled legislatures who oversee map-drawing in most states. But because of Trump's successful push to get lawmakers to act in Texas, a number of Democratic leaders are toying with abandoning their rulebook and digging in for fights over congressional district lines.
Newsom, Hochul and Pritzker are all seen as possible presidential contenders for the wayward Democratic Party in 2028. Redistricting could serve as a litmus test for primary voters eager to get behind a presidential nominee who fought back against Trump.
But Republicans are not stopping with Texas. Trump has said the new congressional map is the opening salvo in a broader plan to craft new maps in other red states and further pad the GOP's slim 219-212 majority in the U.S. House.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said earlier this month there is 'ample justification' to undertake a rare mid-decade redistricting effort in his Republican-dominated state.
Meanwhile, GOP-controlled Ohio was already slated for redistricting before Texas set off the arms race, with the Midwest state's commission-approved maps set to expire next year. Map drawers there are now contemplating how aggressive they should be in squeezing Democrats out of winnable districts.
U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Missouri, recently told a public radio station that Trump is also looking to pick up an extra seat in his state.
Before the new maps were released Wednesday, the majority of Texas Republicans in Congress were privately opposed to the idea, fearing GOP voters would be spread too thin in the effort to flip more Democratic seats, The Texas Tribune previously reported. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott also told GOP members he was not on board, but he eventually called lawmakers back to Austin to draw up new maps after speaking to Trump about the matter on a call.
But the state House's initial draft this week avoided drawing any Republican incumbents into significantly competitive districts. Members of the GOP delegation see the maps as the best case scenario, according to a person who has discussed the new lines with multiple Texas Republicans.
Trump's iron grip over those in his party has allowed him to bend internal opposition to his will, muffling any vocal opposition who may be successful in blocking his redistricting plan.
Some Democrats have bluntly insisted that their party leaders respond to Trump's push with more urgency. Last week at an event in D.C., former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso called on Newsom to move forward with redistricting without waiting for Texas.
'Why the fuck are we responding and reacting to the other side instead of taking offense on these things?' he said.
The lineup for The Texas Tribune Festival continues to grow! Be there when all-star leaders, innovators and newsmakers take the stage in downtown Austin, Nov. 13–15. The newest additions include comedian, actor and writer John Mulaney; Dallas mayor Eric Johnson; U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minnesota; New York Media Editor-at-Large Kara Swisher; and U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-El Paso. Get your tickets today!
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