LDP, Komeito Struggle in Upper House Election: Haphazard Politics Leads to Distrust / Expand Coalition Framework to Achieve Stability

Yomiuri Shimbun

2 days ago

It has been nearly 10 months since the administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba began. Looking back on its haphazard responses during this period, it is only natural that the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito struggled in the latest election.
In the House of Councillors election on Sunday, the LDP and Komeito lost a significant number of seats. This poor performance follows their crushing defeat in last year's House of Representatives election. There is a possibility that the political landscape will become even more fluid from now on.
In any case, the ruling parties only hold a minority in the lower house. They cannot pass budgets or laws without the cooperation of the opposition. To stabilize politics, it is essential to expand the framework of the coalition. It can be said that the era of the LDP-Komeito administration has come to an end, and it is time to build a new coalition.
European trends spreading to Japan
'We must be aware of our responsibility as the largest party,' Ishiba said on an NHK program on Sunday night, suggesting his intention to retain his position. Can a prime minister who has struggled in every election really handle the difficult issues facing Japan both domestically and internationally?
The international situation is chaotic. Wars continue in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the free trade system is on the brink of collapse. Amid such a situation, political turmoil in Japan, an economic power, is likely to have a negative impact on the world. It is important to put an end to the turmoil as soon as possible.
In Europe last year, there were a number of cases of ruling parties suffering election defeats due to dissatisfaction over such issues as rising prices and immigration. In the United Kingdom, power shifted from the Conservative Party to the Labour Party for the first time in 14 years. In France, the ruling coalition supporting French President Emmanuel Macron has retreated to become only the second largest force.
The latest upper house election means that harsh judgment has also been handed down to the administration in Japan, which has been slow to resolve issues.
The Ishiba administration continuously accepted demands from the opposition wholesale in order to pass budgets and laws in the Diet.
The administration accepted the Democratic Party for the People's demand to raise the minimum income tax threshold to get the fiscal 2024 supplementary budget approved. Regarding the fiscal 2025 budget, it gained the cooperation of the Japan Innovation Party by accepting the JIP's proposal to make high school tuition free. It also accepted the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan's pension reform proposal.
While it may be acceptable for a minority government to seek cooperation from opposition parties, it cannot be said that the Ishiba administration thoroughly examined the validity of the opposition's various demands or measures to secure fiscal resources.
The prime minister once abandoned a policy of cash handouts due to its unpopularity but once again raised it is as a key measure to combat rising prices ahead of the upper house election. Such inconsistency in the prime minister's positions has likely raised distrust toward the administration.
The method of seeking cooperative partners on a policy-by-policy basis results in the blind acceptance of opposition demands. To prevent such a situation from recurring, it is necessary to establish a robust coalition government framework that also takes responsibility for securing fiscal resources.
In that case, it would be difficult for the opposition parties to cooperate if the prime minister, who fought in the lower house and upper house elections, remains the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Ishiba should decide whether to step down in order to encourage opposition parties to join the coalition.
The LDP will mark its 70th anniversary in November. Although the decline in organizational strength is not limited to the LDP, its membership as of the end of 2024 was about 1.03 million, a decrease of more than 60,000 in just one year.
Accelerating organizational decline
In addition to the decline of traditional LDP-supporting industry organizations in sectors such as construction and agriculture, the Ishiba administration's tactic of blindly accepting opposition demands has probably eroded public trust, potentially triggering a significant shift in the political landscape.
Meanwhile, among opposition parties, the DPFP and Sanseito have significantly increased in strength as a result of the upper house election.
Within the LDP, liberal elements have gained momentum, as evidenced by the recent emergence of proposals to promote a selective separate surname system for married couples. This has caused conservative voters who traditionally supported the LDP to withdraw their backing of the party, with many reportedly shifting their allegiance to DPFP or Sanseito.
The DPFP set forth a campaign pledge of 'increasing take-home pay' for the upper house election, the same pledge as for last year's lower house election, and gained support among younger voters.
Sanseito gained attention by opposing 'the excessive acceptance of foreign nationals' into Japan. Seeing the popularity of such arguments, the LDP also emphasized such proposals as restrictions on real estate purchases by foreigners.
If there are institutional deficiencies regarding foreign nationals, they must be corrected. However, arguments that seem to direct dissatisfaction toward foreign nationals without basis should be avoided.
The proportion of foreign nationals among welfare recipients and criminal offenders is not particularly high.
Foreign nationals have now become a valuable part of the workforce and help mitigate the labor shortages. It is important to strive for the creation of an inclusive society by encouraging them to learn Japanese culture and etiquette.
Consumption tax rate a focal point
In the latest election, both ruling and opposition parties raised measures to address rising prices as the top campaign issue. Ideally, they should have competed with each other on growth strategies aimed at wage increases that outpace price hikes.
With the opposition bloc holding the upper hand in the Diet, there is growing speculation that a consumption tax cut could become a reality. Concerns about the deterioration of fiscal conditions have pushed long-term interest rates higher. A consumption tax cut could undermine Japan's fiscal credibility.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 21, 2025)