Stocks hold at record, dollar jumps on trade hopes: Markets wrap
The start of a week that will set the tone for the rest of the year in markets saw a dollar gauge up nearly 1%. The euro slid the most in over two months. The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 to close little changed. Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from U.S. debt sales. Oil rose as Trump said he'd shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.
In the run-up to the Aug. 1 U.S. tariff deadline, traders will go through a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity. The big event comes Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged. Then there's a string of big-tech earnings, with four megacaps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results.
"This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets," said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. "This week could make or break that momentum in the near term."
U.S. and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security. Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is still deep in trade talks with the Trump administration.
The Treasury jacked up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to distortions from the debt limit. On Wednesday, the department will announce its plans for note and bond sales over coming months - which dealers widely see as staying unchanged.
Speaking in Scotland on Sunday to announce the EU deal, Trump gave a brief update on Washington's relations with Beijing. "We're very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we'll see how that goes," he said without elaborating.
"It is possible that as more trade deals are announced, the level of uncertainty that has hovered over business and the economy will ease," said Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. "Additionally, the impact of final trade deals could be less than originally forecast after the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs."
To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group, while the dollar's strength today may reflect the perception that the new EU deal is lopsided in favor of the U.S., it may also reflect a feeling that America is reengaging with its major allies.
"Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse," said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report. "And we can now focus on how this all plays out."
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank's board room for a two-day meeting starting Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed's preferred price metrics. Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.
While the stock market is moving sideways after a solid run, "if we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it's likely we'll see yet more new highs by the end of the week," said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
"We do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but it's possible that they make a stronger signal that cuts are on the horizon in the fall, especially as the inflation data continues to stay muted even in this tariff environment," said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
Gardner also says that while stock market valuations are high, that in and of itself is not a reason why valuations can't expand even further from here.
In fact, this earnings season is off to a solid start, and all eyes will be on results from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday, and Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday.
So far, Corporate America appears to be taking tariffs in stride. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, roughly 82% have beaten profit forecasts, on track for the best quarter in about four years, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
Progress in trade negotiations will take the S&P 500 to a third consecutive year of 20% gains, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management's John Stoltzfus, a feat unseen since the late 1990s. He raised his year-end target for the U.S. benchmark to 7,100.
Some market forecasters including Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson have turned more optimistic about the S&P 500 as they expect earnings to remain upbeat.
The technical evidence suggests a broadening of participation in equities off the April low, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
"Despite a slight easing in momentum as investors await earnings, the combination of several major indices at all-time highs and improving market breadth continues to draw investors off the sidelines, offering opportunities to buy the dip," he said.
At RBC Capital Markets, Lori Calvasina says it would be premature to write off the impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate earnings.
"It also poses a risk to the path of stock prices if company outlooks for 2026 don't end up being as rosy as investors have been anticipating," she noted.
The S&P 500 is trading around 22.5 times projected earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 18.6. That's sparked concerns that there may be little room for error.
The stock market's stunning rebound and resilience have again emboldened equity investors, who have developed muscle memory around 'buying the dip'," according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
"With volatility having decoupled from stress indicators, passive indexes have ground to new highs, while the most speculative corners of the market have begun to lead," she said. "Complacency is elevated, and valuations are rich. In this environment, we want to be stock-pickers."
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, this may be the most compelling intersection of technical momentum and fundamental strength we've seen in a long time.
"The S&P hasn't had a 1% move in over a month and yet bears have capitulated," he said. "No one's willing to short this market, and even typically skeptical investors are getting pulled in. While it's not a blow-off top yet, the odds of that happening are rising."
If sentiment keeps shifting and dip buyers remain aggressive, we could see a classic melt-up – and any near-term weakness over the next several weeks is likely to be bought aggressively, he said.
"However, for now, bears are hibernating through the summer," Hackett concluded.
"We would lean toward being more bullish than bearish on U.S. stocks through year-end, but not outside of a balanced portfolio based on risk," said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. "However, that view is contingent on positive corporate profitability and economic growth this year, avoiding worst-case tariff scenarios, and investors remaining willing to 'buy the dip'."
Markets have found reassurance in several developments, according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office.
"For one, the worst fears that manifested around trade in early April haven't materialized, and key trade agreements are being signed," the strategists said. "Tariff rates remain vastly elevated compared to last year, but they appear manageable. In our view, it's likely that the cost can be shared between businesses and consumers without a meaningful impact on growth or inflation."
Invesco strategists also noted that what should really matter for stocks in the medium and long-term is earnings.
"After a strong market rally, investors should prepare for renewed volatility in the near term," said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. "Potential market dips could offer an opportunity for investors to build long-term exposure to stocks."
Corporate Highlights:
-Samsung Electronics Co. will produce AI semiconductors for Tesla Inc. in a new $16.5 billion pact that marks a win for its underperforming foundry division.
-Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to outperform at Wolfe Research, which said the chipmaker is "near the end" of a spending cycle.
-Cisco Systems Inc. was downgraded to inline at Evercore, which mentioned valuation following recent gains.
-Nike Inc. was raised to overweight at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited the earnings impact of the sportswear maker's five-pronged multi-year recovery plan.
-Albertsons Cos. demanded that Kroger Co. provide details on personal conduct that led the company to replace its chief executive officer, who shepherded the failed $24.6 billion takeover that's now the focus of litigation between the two companies.
-PayPal Holdings Inc. will soon allow businesses to accept more than one hundred cryptocurrencies at checkout.
-Roche Holding AG plans to test whether an experimental medicine can prevent Alzheimer's disease symptoms in high-risk people, its latest investment in one of the most failure-prone areas of drugmaking.
-Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday that it's owed a $100 million milestone payment from Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. within the next two months, pressuring the beleaguered biotech company just days after it stopped selling its biggest drug due to safety concerns.
-EssilorLuxottica SA posted better-than-expected revenue in the second quarter, as the world's biggest eyewear maker showed strong gains in Europe and pressed ahead with its smart-glasses initiative.
-Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. announced the names of the two companies resulting from a planned separation of the streaming and studios business from its cable-TV networks.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
-The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
-The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
-The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
-The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
-Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
-The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
-The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
-The euro fell 1.3% to $1.1592
-The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3355
-The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 148.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
-Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $118,128.17
-Ether fell 0.6% to $3,802.22
Bonds
-The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.41%
-Germany's 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.69%
-Britain's 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.65%
Commodities
-West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $67.10 a barrel
-Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,317.25 an ounce
Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Hill
20 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump's plan for White House ballroom sparks outrage from his critics
President Trump's plans to add a massive $200 million ballroom to the White House is angering critics, who see him moving forward with the long-sought project as part of his desire to leave a lasting mark not only on the office of the presidency but the first house as well. The construction of the ballroom, the cost of which the White House says will be covered by Trump and other donors, will begin in September. Trump is also paving the White House Rose Garden (though the rose bushes will be saved), which the White House says is necessary so people can walk more easily for events held in the space. And he's added his personal gold touch to the Oval Office. Trump says he sees the ballroom as a way to add to his legacy. And while detractors say his decorative and more substantial changes are out of touch and ostentatious, he says they are necessary. 'I always said I was going to do something about the ballroom because they should have one,' he told reporters Thursday. 'So we'll be leaving it, it will be a great legacy project. And, I think it will be special.' When asked if any government funds will be used to construct the 90,000 square foot facility, Trump replied, 'no government dollars, no.' The White House said the sprawling event space will be built adjacent to the White House where the East Wing sits. The goal is to complete construction before the end of Trump's term in January 2029. Trump's vision is for a space where he and future presidents can host state dinners, large gatherings with business leaders and other ritzy parties or functions. 'We've been planning it for a long time,' Trump said. 'They've wanted a ballroom at the White House for more than 150 years. There's never been a president that was good at ballrooms. I'm really good.' Democrats and regular Trump critics offered a sharp pushback on his plans. 'This is what DOGE was all about, folks,' Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a video posted to social media hours after the White House announcement, referring to the president's Department of Government Efficiency. 'Cutting things from you, and giving it not to some place that needed it, giving it to the big shots who run the show, Donald Trump at the top of the list.' Others suggested Trump and his White House were planting an intentional distraction. 'You gotta hand it to MAGAs, for about a week they really did have everyone convinced they cared about kids and The Epstein Files,' journalist and pundit Seth Abramson wrote on social platform X. 'On to more important things! Did you hear Trump is building a $200M ballroom at the White House? Wowee!' The White House pushed back on those criticisms in a Friday statement to The Hill, saying 'as President Trump has said, for over 150 years, many presidents, administrations, and staff have all wanted a ballroom, and now we have a president who will accomplish building it.' 'President Trump is the best builder and developer in the entire world and the American people can rest well knowing that this project is in his hands,' a West Wing spokesperson said. 'Many future presidents and American citizens will enjoy it for generations to come.' The president, a longtime real estate mogul who is known for a hands-on approach in the design and construction of his resorts, golf courses and skyscraper office buildings, has long lamented the lack of sufficient event space at the White House. 'When it rains it's a disaster, and the tent's 100 yards, that's more than a football field away from the main entrance,' Trump said as part of his remarks to the press about the project. 'And people are shlopping down to the tent; it's not a pretty sight. The women with their lovely evening gowns, their hair all done, and they're a mess by the time they get [there].' There is longstanding precedent for presidents and first ladies putting their spin on the White House and its grounds. President Harry Truman oversaw a massive renovation from 1948 to 1952 that required he and his wife to move into the Blair House at the time and saw the White House completely gutted. Former first lady Jackie Kennedy, however, championed the historic preservation of the home and advocated that extreme renovations require oversight from the Committee for the Preservation of the White House. 'Every president and first family does make a mark on the White House — they already are a part of history and that snapshot in time,' said Anita McBride, former chief of staff to then-first lady Laura Bush. 'Since the cornerstone was laid, there have been additions, there have been changes that, at the time those happened, raised concerns.' The White House Historical Association welcomed Trump's planned ballroom. 'The history of the White House has evolved over 233 years since the cornerstone was laid in 1792. The South Portico, the North Portico, the East Wing, the West Wing, and the Truman Balcony all raised concerns at the time — but today, we can't imagine the White House without these iconic elements,' Stewart D. McLaurin, president of the association, told The Hill. He added, 'Since our founding by First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy in 1961, we have supported and partnered with every president and first lady caring for and adding to the White House and its Collection. We work to preserve the history of this remarkable museum, home, and office for generations to come.' Some agree with the president that a bigger events space at the White House is long overdue. 'I can understand why someone who thinks on a grand scale, as obviously President Trump does, would want this ballroom added,' said Barbara Perry, a presidential historian and co-chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia's Miller Center. 'That being said, the optics for people who disagree with this president, it will probably have an impact on how they view this.' McBride agreed that the tents on the lawn, which have been constructed during more recent administrations, are not ideal. 'That doesn't come without challenges, putting up staging, putting up a covered structure, getting people to the actual location; dealing with inclement weather. And you're not really having your event in the White House,' she said. 'So you can see where that makes sense.' There are lingering questions about what the new ballroom location will mean for the staffers who work in the East Wing, which is where first lady's staff works. The East Wing is also where tours of the White House for the public are conducted. 'Betty Ford always called the East Wing the 'heart' of the White House,' McBride said. 'All the business and policy gets done in the West Wing, that's critically important. But the heart of the White House is the East Wing. And so what, what will be the new East Wing?' Others see the construction of an opulent addition to the president's residence as a matter of bad timing and poor optics given sluggish jobs reports and fears about how global tariffs might hurt the U.S. economy. 'This isn't something that's going to make or break another election, but it does add another page to the catalog of hypocrisy that these people read from when they want to lecture Americans about fiscal responsibility,' said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic political strategist. 'It's a visible middle finger to working class Americans, many of whom voted for him.'
The Hill
20 minutes ago
- The Hill
Electricity cost concerns grow amid push for more AI data centers
As tech companies race to power data centers to support artificial intelligence services, some Americans are reporting spikes in their electricity bills. The Trump administration recently released an ' AI Action Plan,' which vowed to expedite permitting for the construction of energy-intensive data centers. During the unveiling of the plan, President Trump acknowledged the growing need for power to run these centers, which are being built across the country by companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft. New reporting by the Washington Post suggests consumers are seeing a spike in their energy bills because of these data centers. According to the report, customers in the areas serviced by PJM Interconnection have seen their electricity bills increase. In Ohio, prices are up between 10 percent and 15 percent, while in New Jersey, prices have increased 20 percent. Experts have told NewsNation that a 5-gigawatt data center could use more energy a year than many states — but they insist Big Tech growth isn't solely to blame for the recent price increases. 'Data centers are affecting electricity, but they are affecting electricity planning at this point. They are not necessarily affecting electricity bills,' said Tricia Pridemore, president of the National Association of Regulatory Commissioners (NARC). 'These large AI data centers that you keep hearing about on the news, they are in the planning and construction phase at this point.' Supply and demand are believed to be behind cost increases in the PJM territory, which has a reorganized market. They have a capacity auction in which power industries bid to supply enough electricity in the future. Right now, there is a greater demand because more supply will be needed for these data centers. At PJM's recent auction, prices went up a record 22 percent, according to Reuters. 'Within reorganized markets such as PJM, MISO, SPP, they go out and use independent power producers to generate electricity,' Pridemore said. 'Based upon the electricity that is available, those market prices drive the cost of the electricity to anyone in the system, whether it's a residential customer or a commercial or a business customer.' The NARC president added that data centers can reduce their power usage and cost by using renewable energy, and some are already tapping into solar energy.
Newsweek
21 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Elon Musk Spent Millions to Get Back in Donald Trump's Good Graces
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Elon Musk made donations totaling $15 million to three super PACs supporting Donald Trump and the Republicans after his very public falling out with the president, but all before he announced his plans for the new "America Party." Newsweek reached out to the White House and Musk via X, SpaceX, and Tesla for comment by email outside of normal business hours on Saturday morning. Why It Matters Musk and Trump formed a fast and mutually beneficial friendship in the runup to the 2024 presidential election, with Musk bankrolling Trump's campaign to the tune of at least $250 million and helping him secure victory against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. Trump then positioned Musk as the point person for the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), giving him free rein to look into the federal government to cut back on "waste, fraud, and abuse" and bring down spending across all departments. However, their relationship took a turn as pressure mounted against Musk, with Tesla suffering significantly due to his role in the Trump administration, and ultimately Musk left his post to return to the private sector. Musk, who called himself Trump's "first buddy," also publicly criticized the administration-backed "One Big Beautiful Bill," which aims to extend tax cuts, increase immigration enforcement, and end consumer incentives for electric vehicles. Trump and Musk then started to taking shots at each other—through the press and via their respective social media platforms—culminating in a very public falling out in June. Musk accused Trump of withholding the release of the Epstein files because he was allegedly named in them, and Trump threatened to cut Musk's contracts with the federal government. Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks is seen in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30 in Washington, D.C. Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks is seen in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30 in Washington, To Know Following their public feud, which occurred in the first week of June, Musk appeared to try and make amends with the president by donating $5 million to each of three super PACs related to Trump and the Republicans. The Daily Mail first noted the donations in a report on Friday, but Newsweek verified through Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings that Musk donated $5 million each to MAGA Inc., the Senate Leadership Fund, and the House Leadership Fund. All three donations were made on June 27, which is about a week before he then declared he would create his own political party—the America Party. Musk's last donations were made to the AMERICA PAC, which included a roughly $27 million donation on June 30, according to the filings. He has also donated to the reelection campaign for Republican Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Barry Moore of Alabama, although those were only a few thousand dollars each. This was also around the time that Musk heavily criticized the "One Big Beautiful Bill," which he said was "political suicide" to pass and warned it would add trillions to the national debt. Musk decided to create the America Party after holding a poll on X on July 4, in which he asked users: "Should we create the America Party?" as a way of creating "independence from the two-party (some would say uniparty) system." The poll received 1.25 million votes, with 65.4 percent saying "Yes," which Musk greeted with enthusiasm, writing: "By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it! When it comes to bankrupting our country with waster & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy." As a foreign-born U.S. citizen, Musk cannot run for president, but he could bankroll other candidates, which he could do with a third party. He wrote in a separate X post that if he did make a new party, he would focus on capturing two or three Senate seats and eight to 10 seats in the House of Representatives in order to have impact on legislation. Trump criticized Musk's decision to start a third party, writing on Truth Social at the time, in part: "I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely 'off the rails,' essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks. He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States - The System seems not designed for them. The one thing Third Parties are good for is the creation of Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS." What People Are Saying President Donald Trump in his last Truth Social post to mention Elon Musk, which was on July 24, wrote: "Everyone is stating that I will destroy Elon's companies by taking away some, if not all, of the large scale subsidies he receives from the U.S. Government. This is not so! I want Elon, and all businesses within our Country, to THRIVE, in fact, THRIVE like never before! The better they do, the better the USA does, and that's good for all of us. We are setting records every day, and I want to keep it that way!" Elon Musk in his last X post to mention Donald Trump, which was on July 8, wrote: "How can people be expected to have faith in Trump if he won't release the Epstein files?" What Happens Next? It remains unclear if Trump and Musk have had any direct communication following their war-of-words in June. This article includes reporting by The Associated Press.
