A welcome first step to cutting migration

Yahoo

11-05-2025

The horse may have bolted, but the Government is at least attempting to shut the stable door. Changes to be announced on Monday will see skilled worker visas restricted to those holding degree-level qualifications, with carve-outs for health and social care, and lower skilled workers in 'critical sectors'.
While a step in the right direction, however, these changes will not be nearly enough to fix the mess Britain finds itself in. Changes to the eligibility of care workers to win visas for dependants appear to have already substantially reduced the number of low-skilled workers arriving. In 2024, roughly 50 per cent of those awarded skilled worker visas possessed qualifications below degree level.
The effect of this change is likely to be limited. Roughly 58,000 visas were granted to applicants for skilled worker visas outside of the health and social care route in 2024, and a similar number to their dependents. If half of those who currently succeed in applying were to be barred, the total reduction in migration would be of a similar magnitude. Factor in the carve-outs and the redirection of demand to alternative routes, however, and the real change may be substantially smaller.
With Home Office officials now reportedly sceptical about forecast reductions in long-term net migration – with fears that it could settle around 500,000 people per year – it is clear that far greater restrictions will be needed to bring the inflow down to a politically acceptable – or indeed economically sustainable – level.
These will require the Government weaning itself off the use of migration as a short-term fix to structural policy issues. The use of the graduate visa, for instance, to prop up demand for courses offered by financially imperilled universities, is a self-evident absurdity that sees institutions selling the right to work in the UK under the guise of selling education as an export. Equally, attempting to hold down the wages of care workers rather than correct a flawed funding model is a short-term fix likely to rack up long-term costs.
While he has made a welcome start, Sir Keir Starmer is unlikely to relish making the trade-offs that further restrictions will require. As evidence on the fiscal costs of low-skilled migration, the strains on infrastructure, and the political backlash demonstrate, however, it would be better to address the issue now rather than later.
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.