Israel-Iran tensions linger: Asian stocks rebound cautiously; oil prices spike while safe-haven bets diverge
Asian stock markets showed early signs of recovery on Monday following sharp losses last week triggered by intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran. Investor sentiment remains cautious as the risk of prolonged conflict in the Middle East threatens oil supplies, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy outlooks globally.
Brent crude prices surged by as much as 5.5 per cent, while safe-haven currencies and assets showed mixed responses. The Japanese yen weakened, and Bloomberg's dollar index edged slightly higher. Market participants are also watching for upcoming interest rate decisions from major central banks including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
Nifty50
, Sensex open higher amid global market caution
Indian equity benchmarks Nifty50 and
BSE Sensex
opened in the green on Monday, reflecting early optimism despite lingering global market concerns.
At 9.17 AM, the Nifty50 was trading at 24,790.30, up 72 points or 0.29 per cent, while the BSE Sensex stood at 81,337.74, gaining 219 points or 0.27 per cent.
Analysts, however, warn of sustained pressure due to unfavourable international cues. Sector-specific trends are expected to shape market movement through the day, driven by industry-related developments.
Japan: Nikkei recovers amid safe-haven Yen weakness
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose approximately 0.8 per cent at Monday's open, partially clawing back losses from Friday's decline.
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The Japanese yen- traditionally considered a global safe-haven asset- fell slightly, reflecting investor preference for higher-yielding assets despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
Asia-Pacific: Regional equities stabilize amid oil jitters
The broader Asian equities index ticked up about 0.2 per cent, as investors cautiously bought into the dip. Analysts warned of continued volatility, especially in markets with higher energy dependence.
Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J.
Safra Sarasin, said: 'Markets should be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainty. Hedging against oil supply-chain disruptions through energy exposure and gold, which may accelerate its structural uptrend, are prudent portfolio strategies.'
Global outlook
Beyond the Middle East, investors are also grappling with additional headwinds including fragile global trade ties, possible tariff hikes under President Trump, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and rising US political unrest amid nationwide protests.
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Time of India
13 minutes ago
- Time of India
China refiners grab Russian oil as Trump menaces flows to India
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Oil refiners in China have stepped up purchases of Russia's flagship crude, seizing an opportunity to take discounted cargoes relinquished by India as Washington ramps up trade tariffs against New China is the largest importer of Russian oil , it tends to take deliveries from the nation's Far East. Yet so far in August, shipments of Urals — which loads from Baltic and Black Sea ports — were almost 75,000 barrels a day. That's almost double the year-to-date average of about 40,000 barrels, according to Kpler. In contrast, exports to India sunk to no more than 400,000 barrels a day this month, compared with the average of 1.18 million.'Generally, Chinese refineries are in a comfortable position to keep taking Russian oil for now, in contrast to Indian refiners,' said Jianan Sun, an analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. Urals — which ships from Russia's west — remains competitive against alternative grades from the Middle East, Sun global oil market is focused on shifts in global flows as US President Donald Trump steps up a diplomatic push to try and broker an end to the war in Ukraine. As part of that drive, Washington has doubled a levy on all Indian imports to punish the nation for taking Russian crude, although it hasn't yet followed through with a comparable measure against China amid a trade truce with Beijing. The Asian nations are the top buyers of Moscow's differing approaches — which have presented Chinese refiners with a buying opportunity — have been on display in recent days. Last Friday, Trump said he would hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods over the country's purchases of Russian oil, citing progress with Russian President Vladimir Putin toward ending the war. Meanwhile, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has described India's buying as 'opportunistic and deeply corrosive,' while also acknowledging that the US can't go further on China without hurting itself.'One thing is certain: Trump will not do things which he knows he cannot achieve,' said Mukesh Sahdev, head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy A/S. 'Putting pressure on India, he has certainly achieved and he can make an impact, but putting pressure on China? Probably not.'Refiners in China, Asia's largest economy, have likely purchased 10 to 15 cargoes of Urals for October and November delivery so far, more than their usual intake, according to Kpler and Energy Aspects.'I won't be surprised to see more November-delivered cargoes to be bought by the Chinese in the coming days' if Urals prices remained attractive, said Muyu Xu, senior crude analyst at grade was most recently offered at $1 a barrel premium over Dated Brent, with no further discounts seen, following elevated interest from Chinese refiners, according to traders in the market who asked not to be present, at least two tankers carrying Urals — each with capacity of 1 million barrels — are waiting off China's coast, with more expected in coming weeks, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessels — Georgy Maslov and Zenith — are idling near Zhoushan. That's the base for Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical Co., and also close to strategic storage processors remain on the sidelines, although they have been receiving and considering offers for Urals, the traders Russian barrels 'have to be removed, and those barrels can only be removed by China into storage,' said Sahdev. 'Without China buying, the Russian crude may start discounting more to get new buyers.'
Time of India
13 minutes ago
- Time of India
Short-term bets on oil risky amid geopolitical uncertainty: Vandana Hari
I don't see a high likelihood of Trump imposing secondary tariffs on China or Brazil, given existing trade tensions, which means the picture for Russian oil supply and related market concerns wouldn't change much in the near term. Oil markets are in a holding pattern due to uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war and potential shifts in Western sanctions. The focus has shifted from a quick ceasefire to a longer-term resolution of territorial disputes and security guarantees. Market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach, as the path to a resolution is expected to be lengthy and complex. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "If we take a step back, something has changed fundamentally compared to how the oil markets viewed the situation before last Friday's summit between Trump and Putin. The summit and subsequent events, including Trump involving Zelenskyy, have altered the outlook. Until last Friday, the focus was on a potential ceasefire, which I viewed as a quick solution—a resolution, yes, bringing peace—but leaving the fundamental reasons behind the conflict unresolved," says Vandana Hari , Vanda is likely to remain in a holding pattern. As you pointed out, there isn't much for oil markets to go on when it comes to assessing what will happen with the war in Ukraine, and consequently, how Western sanctions and embargoes against Russian oil might evolve. This, in turn, affects expectations regarding Russian oil flows—whether there will be future disruptions or if they will continue as they are now. So, there are a lot of dots to connect for the oil we take a step back, something has changed fundamentally compared to how the oil markets viewed the situation before last Friday's summit between Trump and Putin. The summit and subsequent events, including Trump involving Zelenskyy, have altered the outlook. Until last Friday, the focus was on a potential ceasefire, which I viewed as a quick solution—a resolution, yes, bringing peace—but leaving the fundamental reasons behind the conflict has changed now is that the ceasefire seems off the table, and attention is shifting to resolving the much bigger issues: the territorial dispute between the two countries and Ukraine's security guarantees. For oil market participants, this means adopting a wait-and-watch approach. Moving from a potential ceasefire to a full resolution will clearly take much longer. It's going to be a longer, more winding, and more difficult path. So, there isn't much point in making bets on whether to go long or short on oil right now. It's just a wait-and-watch while we're in a holding pattern, it's worth considering what could happen in the next two weeks. The timelines I've seen suggest two weeks, according to Trump and some European leaders; one European leader mentioned it could take up to three weeks. It could drag on the meantime, there is a chance things could deteriorate. The next step is a bilateral meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, based on what Trump said after his meetings. These two leaders haven't met since the war began. There's a possibility it could revert to a stalemate or even worsen. At that point, Trump might consider imposing secondary tariffs on countries like China, Turkey, or Brazil, but that remains base case is that this process could drag on beyond two to three weeks. I don't see a high likelihood of Trump imposing secondary tariffs on China or Brazil, given existing trade tensions, which means the picture for Russian oil supply and related market concerns wouldn't change much in the near term.
New Indian Express
13 minutes ago
- New Indian Express
China assures India of critical exports as both sides move to reset ties
NEW DELHI: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Monday assured External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar that Beijing will resume critical exports to India-- including fertilisers, rare earth minerals, and tunnel boring machines-- meeting three long-standing Indian concerns. The assurance, confirmed by sources familiar with the discussions, signals a potential step forward in rebalancing economic ties between the two Asian powers, which have faced prolonged strain since the border standoff of 2020. During the meeting, Jaishankar reiterated India's need for uninterrupted supplies of urea, NPK, DAP fertilisers, rare earth materials essential for manufacturing and clean energy technologies, and tunnel boring machines used in key infrastructure projects. According to sources, Minister Wang responded positively and committed to facilitating these exports. The development reflects a shared recognition that pragmatic cooperation in trade and infrastructure can continue even as broader strategic differences remain to be sorted through, building greater trust.
