Why Israel has attacked now – and how Iran can respond

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a day ago

Credit: Reuters
After mulling such action for 16 years, Israel has launched airstrikes at Iran's nuclear facilities – a mission fraught with peril not just for the Jewish state, but for the broader Middle East. The danger of a regional conflagration is higher than ever, and the world is holding its breath.
In the darkest hours of the night, Israel forces struck military bases and nuclear sites across Iran, reportedly killing the country's three most senior generals and several leading nuclear scientists.
Whether the aim is to end Iran's nuclear threat permanently or merely to delay its progress remains unclear. But these strikes most likely mark only the beginning. The main phase of the operation may still be to come.
As in its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon last year, one of Israel's initial objectives appears to be the disruption of Iran's military command structure, presumably to impair its ability to retaliate. Several residential buildings in Tehran were among the targets.
Israel has long prepared for this moment. The opening salvos make this clear. There were echoes of the metronomic precision seen in the first phase of its assault in Lebanon – even if this operation is far more ambitious and of vastly greater consequence.
Among the dead, according to Iranian media, was Brig Gen Mohammad Bagheri, Iran's highest-ranking military officer and the head of its armed forces. So too were Gen Hossein Salami, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and overseer of Iran's regional proxy networks, and Gen Gholam Ali Rashid, who led the Iranian military's central command.
Given Israel's systematic decapitation of Hezbollah's leadership during its two-month invasion last year, Tehran would have taken precautions to protect its most vital human assets. And yet they failed – again underscoring the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence.
A gaping hole has been blown in the chain of command directly beneath Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader. He may even be a target himself, though it is possible that the United States has warned Israel against going that far.
Whether Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, would heed such a warning is another matter. Last year, Israeli airstrikes killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, who was revered among the Middle East's Shias and presumed to be untouchable. His assassination triggered little blowback.
Senior Israeli officials may now argue that there has never been a better opportunity to go after the man that many Israelis consider their chief nemesis.
It was not just military commanders who were targeted. At least two senior nuclear scientists were also reportedly killed. This is evidence that Israel is attempting to degrade Iran's nuclear knowledge base and impede any reconstruction effort if the programme is successfully disabled. Israel is widely believed to have been behind a string of similar assassinations in the past.
Launching at least six waves of airstrikes, Israel also attacked Iran's air defences – already weakened by retaliatory Israeli strikes last year – along with long-range missile sites, weapons depots and research facilities.
Israeli officials say Iran's main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz was among the targets. It remains unclear whether the strikes hit the plant's deeply buried centrifuges or merely the defences protecting them.
At this early stage, it is impossible to gauge the full effectiveness of these preliminary salvos.
The pressing question now is how Iran will respond. Washington was quick to state that it was not involved in the attack, although it may yet be drawn in, depending on what happens next.
In his first comments after the launch of what Israel is calling 'Operation Rising Lion', Khamenei notably refrained from threatening US forces or oil infrastructure in the Gulf, focusing his ire instead on Israel and warning that it should 'anticipate a harsh punishment'.
Iran can be expected to retaliate with missile barrages against Israel, where sirens have already sounded and a state of emergency has been declared. Yet two barrages launched by Iran last year were largely neutralised with help from the US, the UK and others.
Even so, at least 20 missiles broke through Israel's air defences, largely because of a shortage of interceptors. Israel and the US have since raced to replenish stocks to ensure greater resilience against what is likely to be a more sustained assault.
Other avenues of possible Iranian retaliation have been weakened over the past two years. Hamas, Hezbollah and – though to a lesser extent – the Houthis in Yemen have been degraded by Israeli operations that have largely doused what Iran boasted was its 'ring of fire'.
Yet Iran still has options that could tip the region into war. It could attack US embassies and military bases in the region – a risk that Washington appears to be anticipating, having evacuated many diplomats and non-essential staff in the past 24 hours.
It could strike shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies pass. The UK has already issued a warning to vessels operating in the Gulf.
An attack on energy infrastructure in Sunni Arab Gulf states – especially Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates – would have global economic ramifications. Oil prices surged 13 per cent within hours of the Israeli strikes.
Even so, Iran may hold back, opting to assess the damage before escalating. Without direct US support, Mr Netanyahu may struggle to deliver the knockout blow he seeks.
Only a limited number of Israel's 300 manned fighter jets and long-range attack drones can reach Iranian targets. So far, each wave of strikes appears to have involved only a few dozen aircraft. Much will depend on acts of sabotage by Israeli agents already operating on the ground.
Khamenei, despite the loss of his top commanders, may judge that Iran can weather the storm. Many experts have long expressed doubts about the feasibility of destroying Iran's fortified nuclear sites. Even the most powerful US bunker-busting bombs – too heavy for Israeli jets – would need repeated use to have a significant effect.
The supreme leader may not want to test that theory. Escalating the conflict, particularly by attacking global shipping or oil infrastructure, could draw the US directly into the war, placing Iran's nuclear programme at a far greater risk.
He may instead choose to wait. Should Israel fail to achieve its objectives, Khamenei could then claim justification in formally declaring Iran's intention to build a nuclear weapon.
Until now, Iran has insisted its nuclear programme is for peaceful, civilian purposes, chiefly electricity generation. But the era of pretence is over. A long-feared showdown is underway. For now, the world can only watch and wait.
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