Rookie Drake Baldwin has 6 RBIs as Braves win 9-5 to hand Giants their 6th straight loss
Baldwin was 3 for 5 and scored 2 runs from the DH slot. Acuña had a double and three walks.
Willy Adames was 4 for 5 with a home run, two doubles and two RBIs for the Giants.
The Braves took a 5-1 lead in the first inning thanks to a wild start from Giants starter Hayden Birdsong (4-4), who did not record an out. He walked the first three batters before Baldwin cleared the bases with a three-run double. Birdsong then walked Ozzie Albies and hit Sean Murphy before he was removed. Birdsong also had a wild pitch to Matt Olson and nearly hit Acuña earlier in the inning.
Matt Gage came on and struck out two before giving up a two-run single to Nick Allen.
Bryce Elder (4-6) allowed 11 base runners on eight hits and three walks, but gave up just three runs in five innings. He stranded seven runners and picked up his second straight win.
Aaron Bummer, Rafael Montero and Enyel De Los Santos covered the final four innings, allowing two runs.
Acuña turned in another jaw-dropping play, this time on the basepaths. On what appeared to be a routine single to center field by Baldwin in the fourth inning, Acuña scored from first after running through a stop sign at third base and diving in just ahead of the throw from Adames at shortstop.
Key moment
After Baldwin gave the Braves a 3-1 lead in the first, Allen's two-run single wrapped up the five-run first inning and put Atlanta firmly in control.
Key stat
Birdsong threw just 6 of his 25 pitches for strikes in the first inning and now has 17 walks in his last 13 innings. It is the first time in 37 career appearances he did not recorded an out.
Up next
Braves RHP Davis Daniel (0-0, 1.80) faces Giants RHP Landen Roupp (4-4, 3.27) on Tuesday.
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He finished first on the team in rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line, so his goal-line talents are still highly utilized. While Allen's rushing prowess helps his fantasy numbers, he also finished eighth in red zone touchdown passes, eighth in short-pass fantasy points per game (FPPG) and eighth in passing FPPG. He had only eight giveaways last year, protecting the ball as well as any quarterback, and Buffalo returns all five offensive line starters. Advertisement Downside: Allen's production is far too reliant on short passes and rushing. He placed 17th in vertical pass FPPG and 25th in stretch-vertical FPPG. James Cook led the team in rushes inside the 10- and 5-yard lines, indicating Buffalo doesn't want Allen to continue to take the wear and tear of those hits. The Bills could also rely more on 220-pound Ray Davis for goal-line rushes. The receiving corps is similar to last year's pass-catching group, so Allen won't have new personnel to help with those subpar aerial numbers. 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He ranked 21st in vertical FPPG and 20th in stretch-vertical FPPG. Samuel was 46th in stretch-vertical PPR PPG and 71st in vertical PPR PPG last year. He must improve in both departments to help Daniels reach new FPPG heights on those distant aerials. There is little quality receiving depth behind Samuel and Terry McLaurin. If Samuel doesn't pan out and McLaurin misses any time due to injury, Daniels' pass production could be hamstrung by what would be one of the worst pass-catching groups, and all of the schedule elements appear unfavorable. Overall: Daniels scored 355.8 points last year. It was the 34th time a quarterback has reached that point total. Only three quarterbacks have tallied back-to-back seasons of that nature. Unfortunately for Daniels, those three are Josh Allen (2020-24), Jalen Hurts (2022-23) and Patrick Mahomes (2020-22). Add in Joe Burrow (372.8 points last year), and at least four other quarterbacks can reach or top that point total. That's why, even though this year's projection has Daniels posting a campaign equal to 2024, he's only my QB5 in fantasy. Draft strategy: Daniels won't make it past the third round in nearly all drafts. Upside: Mahomes started slow last season, but turned things around in Week 8 with an 18.18-point performance. That was the beginning of a stretch that ended with Mahomes ranking eighth in QB FPPG from Weeks 8-17 and finishing less than 3 points away from a top-six showing. With Hollywood Brown (coming back from injury), Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice (who played in only four games last year and will likely face a suspension due to his involvement in a 2024 vehicle accident), the Chiefs have the talent to upgrade their subpar vertical passing production significantly. Kansas City has shored up its offensive line to emphasize downfield passing. Mahomes is extraordinarily durable, having missed only two games in seven seasons. There are five green-rated fireworks matchups in Weeks 1-9. 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Upside: Goff proves that a fantasy quarterback doesn't need a huge pass volume to produce strong fantasy numbers. He was third in pass FPPG, second in short-pass FPPG and in the top 10 in vertical and stretch-vertical FPPG — which led to a career high No. 6 ranking in QB points. This year, he could have an even higher ceiling. New OC John Morton may be more aggressive with the vertical passing game than Ben Johnson. Morton has indicated he will send as many long passes as possible to Jameson Williams, who Morton said is in line for a breakout season. Goff has missed only six games in the past eight seasons. The combined total of matchup and fireworks points is the highest at his position. Downside: Will Morton be a play-calling downgrade from Johnson? Any decline here could have a notable impact, given the relatively low pass volume. Goff has thrown 12+ interceptions in five of the past seven seasons. He adds almost nothing via the ground, with only four quarterbacks having a lower rush FPPG mark in 2024. The Lions saw the downside of shootouts late last year, so HC Dan Campbell may decide to be judicious in passing aggressiveness to prevent them. Center Frank Ragnow's retirement and the low pass rush points could be a hindrance. Overall: Goff was a mid-tier QB1 last year, without Williams's potential full breakout season. Factor in the general green light of a schedule, and Goff should have another mid-tier QB1 point total. Draft strategy: Goff could generate one of the best returns on investment at quarterback. He'll be available as a Round 7-8 pick and should generate at least fifth-round value. Advertisement Upside: Williams displayed his dual-threat skills on many occasions last year. He rushed for just short of 500 yards, which played into his ranking tied for eighth among QBs in games of 22+ points. Surprisingly, he did not record a rushing touchdown, so the yards led to a middling No. 14 ranking in rush FPPG, which Williams should easily be able to top this season. The Bears' offense ought to be much better with HC Ben Johnson calling plays. Chicago made multiple investments to upgrade their abysmal offensive line and added rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to the passing game. Being in the NFC North leads to a high fireworks points total. Downside: The head coach change means another adjustment to a new system. The Lions were third in rush attempts and 16th in pass attempts last season. That's Johnson's run/pass ratio goal, so this won't be a pass-centric offense. There were times when Williams seemed to play it safe last year, which led to his throwing only six picks, thus preventing an issue where he forced passes into coverage like in college, but it is also why Williams had seven games with fewer than 10 points in 2024. If he is more aggressive on throws this year, it could result in more picks. Overall: The combination of the coaching change and personnel upgrades should give Williams at least as many big games as last year and reduce the number of single-digit scores. These paths to additional points project Williams to move into the middle of the QB1 tier. Draft strategy: Williams is the perfect prospect for fantasy managers looking for a relatively low-cost quarterback with the potential for 300+ points. That value proposition justifies a pick in Round 7, yet you may be able to draft Williams as late as Round 9. Upside: Mayfield proved that his 2023 QB1 performance was no fluke. He ranked fourth in overall FPPG, fourth in pass FPPG, third in short-pass FPPG and ninth in vertical pass FPPG. Tampa Bay returns every offensive starter from last year, and it added another aerial weapon in Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield didn't skip a beat despite a change in offensive coordinators last season, so the move to new OC Josh Grizzard (the Buccaneers' pass game coordinator in 2024) should be smooth. Mayfield isn't an impact rusher, but he was one of only 12 quarterbacks to average 3+ FPPG on the ground. The pass rush schedule is a cakewalk. There are eight green-rated matchups all year, including four straight in Weeks 14-17, and only one red-rated matchup. Downside: Tampa Bay's offense will likely be an All-Pro short to start the season. Left tackle Tristan Wirfs had late offseason knee surgery and is slated to begin the year on the PUP list. Mayfield and Lamar Jackson were the only quarterbacks with two streaks of four or more games with 20+ points. Since Jackson has done that five times in his career, and these were Mayfield's only ones, the Bucs' QB is a regression candidate. The 373-rush yard total he posted last year was more than double his previous single-season high, suggesting a drop-off is coming. Overall: There is a lot to like here, but that's not enough to dissipate the cloud of regression uncertainty. Even so, Mayfield should have a high floor that keeps him near the middle of the QB1 tier. Advertisement Draft strategy: Mayfield will be a popular pick in Rounds 4-5 but should be selected in Rounds 7-8. Upside: Murray has a strong track record of solid or better production in many areas. Last year, he was sixth in rush FPPG, 13th in short-pass FPPG, and 12th in overall FPPG. The addition of Marvin Harrison led to a notable improvement in Murray's vertical FPPG. Murray was ninth in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line, which indicates OC Drew Petzing trusts Murray to throw in that area of the field. Harrison and Trey McBride give Murray one of the league's top WR/TE combinations. Murray is now two years removed from knee surgery and may get back to his former top-flight rushing form. He also has one of the most favorable matchup points totals at his position. Downside: The vertical pass improvement with Harrison's addition was relative. Murray went from dead last in vertical FPPG in 2022 and 2023 to 26th in 2024. Murray also had the fifth-lowest stretch-vertical FPPG mark. Last year was only the third time in six NFL seasons Murray played in every game. Arizona has a new offensive line coach in his first year as an NFL coach at any level, and the Cardinals have two new offensive line starters. Murray's rush production includes almost no goal-line carries (only one in 2024). The Cardinals may not want to risk injury with those types of rushes. Arizona has seven red-rated vertical pass defense matchups in an eight-game span from Weeks 3-11. The Cardinals have a very favorable rush defense schedule that could put a low ceiling on the team's pass attempts. Overall: Murray has been a QB1 on four occasions but ranked higher than eighth in only one of those campaigns (third in 2020). There is enough to suggest that Murray has QB1 value in 2025, but he also has the same limited ceiling as his historical trends indicate. Add it up and he's a low-end QB1. Draft strategy: Murray's value level is well known, so he'll move off draft boards sometime in Rounds 7-9. Upside: It took a few weeks for the world to see what Sean Payton saw in Nix, but by the end of the year, it was clear that Nix is a franchise quarterback. Fantasy managers also saw this, with Nix finishing between seventh and ninth in overall, pass, rush and short-pass FPPG. Nix was superb in the red zone, placing tied for fifth in touchdown passes despite ranking 11th in red zone pass attempts. Denver returns all five starting offensive linemen, a group that ranked second in pass pressure rate allowed last year. The improvements to the ground game should augment the Broncos' passing prowess. Payton will get very creative with Evan Engram's usage in this offense, thus providing Nix with a potential matchup advantage on many occasions. Downside: The receiving corps outside of Courtland Sutton and Engram is unproven. Relying too heavily on those two could be a big issue if Engram has another injury-shortened season. Denver's rushing attack is a work in progress. Most of Nix's rushing production occurred on scramble plays, so defenses that spy him can limit his rushing yardage total, which is partially why Nix rushed for fewer than 10 yards on seven occasions last year. The three matchup categories don't offer much in terms of upside potential. Advertisement Overall: Nix has proven he is capable of QB1 production. The issue is that the competition at the QB position is incredibly fierce, and Nix has downside elements that hurt his relative value. Rate him as a reliable low-end QB1. 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Green Bay already had the deepest roster of WR/TE talent before drafting Golden and third-round wideout Savion Williams. A healthy Love should vastly improve upon last year's dismal No. 27 ranking in QB run FPPG and a No. 16 ranking in short-pass FPPG. The vaulted matchup and fireworks points totals augur for the Packers to have many high-scoring games this year. Advertisement Downside: The free-agent signing of 325-pound Aaron Banks and drafting of 335-pound Anthony Belton show the Packers are building an offensive line to avoid those high-scoring games. A greater emphasis on power rushing could reduce Love's short-yardage passing chances, making improving upon a No. 18 ranking for passes inside the 10 more difficult. Green Bay may scale back Love's rushing ambitions to preserve his health. He's thrown 22 interceptions the past two seasons. There are five red-rated pass rush matchups on the 2025 schedule. Overall: These elements don't suggest Love will return to his No. 5 ranking from the 2023 season. However, they indicate a likely improvement over last year's No. 17 rankings in both FPPG and overall QB points, earning Love a low-end QB1 rating. Draft strategy: The fantasy community is viewing Love through a 2024 prism and thus predicting another mid-tier QB2 showing, which doesn't match his low-end QB1 ranking here, so Love can be an excellent value pick in Rounds 9-10. Upside: Prescott has a track record of fantasy scoring success, having finished in the top 10 in QB scoring in three of the past six seasons. He's only one season removed from arguably the best passing campaign of his career. The combination of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson gives the Cowboys one of the best starting WR/TE trios in the business. The improvements in the running game should help take some coverage pressure away. HC Brian Schottenheimer indicates the Dallas offense will have a lot more motion, shifts and play-action plays, all of which can help Prescott's per-play production. Downside: Schottenheimer's dad was a run-first coach. Schottenheimer's mentor (Pete Carroll) was a run-first coach. Schottenheimer's OC (Klayton Adams) has a run-centric background. Combine that with Jerry Jones noting that Schottenheimer bit his lip regarding the Cowboys' pass-centric approach under Mike McCarthy and Dallas revamping its entire RB corps, and it overwhelmingly suggests this will be a ground-based offense. Prescott had mediocre FPPG totals in overall passing, short passing and the run game last year. Prescott has missed 26 games due to injury over the past five years, and the schedule is largely unfavorable. Overall: The Dallas management and coaching staff are wise to use a run-first approach to maximize Prescott's production while limiting his wear and tear. That's great for the team, but not fantasy managers. It drops Prescott to the high end of the QB2 tier. Draft strategy: Prescott is a prime candidate to be drafted above his projected fantasy value. He should be selected in Rounds 9-10, but will be selected earlier quite often. Advertisement Upside: Fields is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in fantasy football. Consider that his 8.9 rush FPPG mark would have ranked second at QB had he posted enough games to be listed as a qualifier. The Jets will be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this year. RPOs will be a big part of that, so Fields could end up with a lot of carries this year. There is even talk that New York will use Fields on the tush push play, which could result in a spike in rushing touchdowns. Garrett Wilson and rookie Mason Taylor will provide maximum production on as many as half of Fields' pass attempts. Only one quarterback has a higher matchup points total. Downside: He couldn't keep the Pittsburgh starting job because his passing prowess is unacceptable. Fields would have ranked 29th in short-pass FPPG, 30th in vertical FPPG and 34th in stretch-vertical FPPG had he played enough games to qualify. It's not as if Pittsburgh had terrible downfield targets, because Russell Wilson ranked in the top four in vertical and stretch-vertical FPPG after replacing Fields. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, is in his first year as an NFL OC. New York's offensive line can run block, but it leaves something to be desired in pass blocking. The receiving corps behind Wilson and Taylor is mediocre or worse. Overall: When a quarterback can post nearly 9 fantasy points per game on the ground, he doesn't need much passing production to be a QB1. Fields' aerial talents don't quite get him to that level, but he's just a step or so behind it. Draft strategy: The QB1 class and top of the QB2 class won't be cleared off draft boards until at least Round 9. Consider taking Fields at any point after that. Upside: Michigan has had its share of quality quarterbacks (including Tom Brady) over the years. Keep that in mind when noting McCarthy is the Wolverines' career leader in interception rate, completion percentage, pass efficiency and TD-to-INT ratio. HC Kevin O'Connell knows how to build game plans to get the most out of his quarterback's talents. The Vikings may have the most improved offensive line in the league. Few, if any, teams have a receiving trio the equal of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. McCarthy showcased some planned rush and scramble ability at Michigan, both of which will be needed in Minnesota. No team has a better fireworks point total, with nearly half of the season comprising green-rated matchups. Downside: He's essentially a rookie starter. The upgraded offensive line could be used for run blocking, considering that Minnesota now has the makings of a platoon backfield with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. O'Connell may also decide to rely on the run to help avoid what could be a considerable amount of scoreboard shootouts versus those high-octane offenses. Considering the entire interior was revamped, the offensive line could take some time to gel. Addison could end up missing time due to a possible suspension. Overall: A Minnesota quarterback has finished in the top nine in QB points in two of the past three seasons (Sam Darnold ranked ninth in 2024; Kirk Cousins ranked eighth in 2022). Since those were veterans and McCarthy is a first-year starter, this projection doesn't quite generate QB1 value, but McCarthy is just outside that tier. Advertisement Draft strategy: McCarthy could be one of the best QB value picks. He's apt to post borderline QB1 value for what should be a Round 10-11 draft pick. Upside: He didn't get on the field much until Week 6 last year, but after that, Maye showed why he was the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Maye ranked 13th in FPPG in Weeks 6-17 and was only 27 points away from a top-10 finish in that time frame, and he did it with a lousy offense. New England tried to make improvements this offseason. The Patriots added rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams, veteran receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, and a ton of offensive line talent (including a great left tackle in rookie Will Campbell). Last year's numbers show Maye can rush for over 500 yards in a full season. Josh McDaniels returning as OC is an upgrade, and the schedule is generally helpful. Downside: Maye had some of the worst fantasy passing numbers in 2024. He ranked 27th in short-pass FPPG, 32nd in vertical FPPG and 23rd in stretch-vertical FPPG. Diggs is coming off an injury and has already had a notable off-field issue. Williams is a rookie, and Hollins has caught more than 31 passes only once in seven NFL seasons. The offensive line could be in flux early on, given the personnel overhaul. HC Mike Vrabel's Tennessee teams finished higher than 30th in pass attempts once — and even then, it was 25th. This team could go the run-heavy route with Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. Overall: Maye's fantasy value will tend to go as his rushing value goes. Vrabel and McDaniels will get full utilization of that skill set. Add that to what should be improved passing numbers (even if 'improved' is a relative term in this case), and Maye gets a mid-tier QB2 ranking. Draft strategy: He will be one of the many mid-tier QB2s taken in Rounds 10-11. Upside: Jim Harbaugh is a run-first coach, but even he wants to throw the ball more than the Chargers did last year. That's why Los Angeles drafted Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden. The vertical game doesn't need much improvement, given that Herbert ranked second in stretch-vertical FPPG and fifth in vertical FPPG. There is developmental receiving upside on the roster with Ladd McConkey, who was good as a rookie and can be better this year, and Quentin Johnston. This offensive system helped Herbert set career lows in interceptions and interception rate. Herbert has tallied 200+ rush yards and 2+ rush touchdowns in all but one of his five NFL seasons. Downside: Harbaugh may want to call more pass plays, but he will never operate a pass-heavy offense. Even with the additions of Harris and Gadsden, this receiving corps needs a lot of improvement to get to par. The offensive line was mediocre last season and could be a work in progress this year. There are only two green-rated fireworks matchups all season, and the campaign begins with three red-rated pass rush matchups in Weeks 1-5. Advertisement Overall: A Harbaugh offense will never get a quarterback to post substantial fantasy numbers on quantity alone. Quality is required, and this offense doesn't have enough of it, so Herbert rates as a mid-tier QB2. Draft strategy: Herbert is in the ninth-to-tenth-round range this year. Upside: The Jaguars' new coaching staff is looking for a reset for Lawrence. They've got a lot to work with. Before last year, Lawrence had missed only one game in his NFL career. He's posted top-12 vertical and stretch-vertical numbers before and was just outside of those ranges in last year's debacle of a season. This offense won't use him on many planned rushes, but Lawrence is still a productive scrambler and doesn't shy away from goal-line work. Few teams can match the pass-catching talents of Brian Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter. The offensive line additions could turn a weakness into a strength (or at least no longer a weakness). Downside: Adjusting to a new offensive system requires time. Depending on how the preseason plays out, the offensive line will likely have at least two new starters and could have more changes. Hunter and Thomas have one combined NFL season between them. New OC Grant Udinski is only 29 years old and has never been a full-time OC. Lawrence has dealt with injuries for two straight years, which could be a big issue behind a revolving door offensive line. There is only one green-rated fireworks matchup all year, and the season ends with five red-rated vertical coverage matchups in Weeks 12-17. Overall: The Jaguars are going all out to build a strong offense around Lawrence. That's a long-term plus, but fantasy managers can't count on that upgrade occurring in the short term, leading to a mid-tier QB2 ranking for Lawrence. Draft strategy: There won't be much clamoring to select Lawrence, so he should be available as late as Rounds 10-11. Upside: The 24.98-point total Penix posted in Week 18 shows there is a high ceiling here if things go well. Penix was the most prolific passer in college football in his 2023 campaign at Washington, leading the nation in passing yards and passing yards per game. Penix also scored seven rushing touchdowns in two years as the Huskies quarterback, so he has a path to marginal rush production. The Falcons have above-average talent at WR/TE and return four offensive line starters, which could lead to an aerial boon since stopping Bijan Robinson will be the primary goal of most defensive coordinators. The passing matchup points total is near the league's top, giving Penix ample favorable matchup opportunities. Advertisement Downside: Kirk Cousins had these top-flight pass-catching talents last year, and he ranked 27th in stretch-vertical FPPG and 23rd in short-pass FPPG. Robinson was second in rushes inside the 10-yard line last season and is on track to mimic that trend in 2025, so Penix isn't likely to get many goal-line passing opportunities. Penix did next to nothing on the ground outside of the rushing touchdowns in college. This offense will take a similar hands-off rushing approach. Cousins is still on the roster, so he could be a relief pitcher if Penix struggles. Atlanta has the highest rush defense matchup points total, a factor that could reduce the Falcons' passing volume. Overall: He can be a high-volume passer, but this is a Bijan Robinson-centric offense. Combine that with this being Penix's first full year as a starter and the limited rush volume, and Penix is a midrange QB2. Draft strategy: Penix is rated higher here than at most outlets and is a potentially good ROI pick in Rounds 12-13. Upside: Few fantasy quarterbacks were more productive in the passing game last year. Tagovailoa ranked sixth in overall FPPG and fourth in short-pass FPPG. He has tallied strong vertical and stretch-vertical numbers in the past, making a turnaround from last year's horrible downfield passing pace (30th in vertical FPPG) possible. There may not be a more talented wide receiver combination than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. New Miami tight end Darren Waller provides even more downfield receiving skills. HC Mike McDaniel is one of the most innovative play callers around. The high pass rush points could help Tagovailoa stretch the field vertically, as will the very high matchup points total. Downside: McDaniel switched this offense from a vertical scheme to a horizontal one because he wanted to keep Tagovailoa healthy — a major emphasis given the breadth and severity of Tua's many head injuries over the years. The Miami offensive line has as many question marks this year as last, so short passing may again be the modus operandi. The injury issue has another downside: eliminating almost all of Tagovailoa's rush value (30th in rush FPPG in 2024). Tagovailoa is one of the most fumble-prone quarterbacks. This team could fire McDaniel during the season if things go south. Overall: Unless or until Tagovailoa returns to being the great vertical passer he's been in past seasons, his fantasy value simply cannot go much higher than mid-tier QB2. Draft strategy: He'll generally move off draft boards in Rounds 11-12. Advertisement Upside: Stroud led the league in stretch-vertical FPPG in his 2023 rookie season and was third in vertical FPPG that year. Getting back to that level will be the goal for new OC Nick Caley. Stroud won't lack for a receiving corps to do this. Nico Collins was fourth in vertical PPR PPG in 2024, and Dane Brugler's 'The Beast' NFL Draft Guide indicates second-round pick Jayden Higgins' game is 'similar to what Nico Collins put on tape at Michigan.' Houston also added Christian Kirk to upgrade at slot wide receiver. Stroud will never be a great rusher, but he is capable of much more than his 1.14 rush FPPG from last season. Downside: Houston is basically starting from scratch at offensive line. There are only two returning starters in that group, and one of those players is changing positions. The Texans also have an offensive line coach whose NFL experience is limited to being a co- or assistant offensive line coach. Add that to the OC change, and this offense could take some time to get in sync. Higgins is a work in progress. Stroud didn't regress last year; he collapsed. He had the fourth-lowest stretch-vertical FPPG and was 25th in vertical FPPG. The schedule is an impediment. Overall: If the Texans were as good at the offensive line as they are at receiver, it would be easy to grant Stroud a QB1 grade. With that group in flux (or even worse), Stroud has to be rated as a low-end QB2. Draft strategy: The quality depth at the quarterback position means fantasy managers don't have to reach here. It's why Stroud should not be taken any earlier than Round 11. Upside: If the move from Cooper Kupp to Davante Adams provides the expected upgrade, the Rams' passing attack will greatly improve, maybe even enough to shift Stafford back into the top 10 in passing FPPG, a must for his fantasy starter viability. Los Angeles had quality pass-blocking numbers last year and will bring back four starters and a former starter. Sean McVay will get the most out of Puka Nacua and Adams, but he will also dial up creative plays to vertical threat Tutu Atwell and a talented tight end tandem of Tyler Higbee and rookie Terrance Ferguson. Stafford has an incredible ability to fight through injury, and the pass rush matchup points total is a notable plus. Downside: Stafford is 37 years old and has taken more than his share of hits. That wear and tear will eventually overcome his moxie to keep playing. Adams may not be much of an upgrade over Kupp. If the passing game doesn't upgrade notably, Stafford may end up with the same No. 18 ranking in pass FPPG that he had last year. That's a huge problem since he essentially adds zero on the ground. Stafford has rushed for fewer than 75 yards in six of the past seven seasons and has scored one rushing touchdown since 2016. If those pass and rush trends repeat in 2025, it could lead to another No. 27 ranking in QB FPPG for Stafford, and the matchup points total is about as low as it can get. Overall: His upside path can get to mid-tier QB2 status, but that is so reliant on the passing game that it puts Stafford at a disadvantage compared to other QB2 candidates, which is one of the main reasons Stafford ends up near the bottom of this tier. Advertisement Draft strategy: The turn from QB2 to QB3 usually hits around Rounds 11-12. Upside: Young was on a tear in the final third of the 2024 season, ranking ninth in QB FPPG in Weeks 12-18. He had three games with 23+ points during that span and five games with 16.5+ points. A big part of the late-season production surge occurred on the ground, with Young scoring five rushing touchdowns in those seven games. That ground prowess led to a No. 7 ranking in rush FPPG and echoed his Alabama rushing numbers. Getting Tetairoa McMillan, the highest-rated WR prospect in the 2025 draft, could provide an immediate pass upgrade. The offensive line returns all five starters, boding well for quality pass blocking when combined with the favorable pass rush points total. Downside: Young is one of the smallest quarterbacks in the NFL, listed at 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds. Last year was the second consecutive season that Young had dismal passing numbers. He ranked 33rd in short-pass FPPG, 26th in stretch-vertical FPPG and 22nd in vertical FPPG. McMillan is a rookie, Xavier Legette looks like a bust, and Adam Thielen is old. Combine that with Carolina not possessing a quality tight end, and the Panthers' receiving corps could be mediocre or worse. There are only three green-rated fireworks matchups on the schedule. Overall: It's tough to bank on a third of a season, but Young has done enough to warrant inclusion at the bottom of the QB2 tier. Draft strategy: The end of the QB2 tier usually leaves draft boards in Rounds 11-12. Upside: One area that stood out for Rodgers last year was his stretch-vertical numbers. He ranked ninth in stretch-vertical FPPG and had as many touchdowns at that level as Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield. With the Steelers adding DK Metcalf to the receiving mix, Rodgers should be able to replicate that downfield success. Rodgers was also ninth in short-pass FPPG, showing he still has mastery of percentage passes. The combination of Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth may give Rodgers the best tight end group he's ever played with. Pittsburgh has a superb offensive line. The fireworks points total is advantageous, featuring six green-rated matchups in Weeks 7-16. Downside: The stretch-vertical production did not prevent Rodgers from tallying a No. 23 ranking in vertical FPPG, a weakness that led to Rodgers finishing outside of the top 10 in pass FPPG for the second consecutive season that he played in (No. 11 in 2024, No. 15 in 2022). His rushing production has dwindled to next to nothing. Rodgers has now posted a double-digit interception mark for consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. He's 42 and could hit the age wall at any time. This run-centric offense may give Rodgers a low pass attempts ceiling. Three red-rated fireworks matchups and a bye are in Weeks 1-6. Advertisement Overall: Rodgers tallied a high-end QB2 season last year due to New York focusing its offense on his passing skills. Mike Tomlin won't rely on his new QB for various reasons, dropping Rodgers' fantasy value to the border of the QB2/QB3 tier. Draft strategy: Do not draft outside of 2QB/SuperFlex leagues. (Photo of Joe Burrow: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
New York Times
6 minutes ago
- New York Times
Why is Vegas so high on the Patriots … but the national media isn't?
FOXBORO, Mass. — Optimism abounds here as training camp opens for the New England Patriots. A new coach and second-year quarterback have a way of doing that. Add in an easy schedule, and hope among the locals is high for what the 2025 NFL season could bring. But I was struck recently by how that doesn't seem to match the national narrative, even as BetMGM has listed the team's over/under win total at 8.5. In an episode of The Athletic Football Show earlier this month, I was similarly struck by how hosts Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman were shocked by the hopefulness of that prospective win total, suggesting a better number was around 6.5. Advertisement Then last week, our Vic Tafur listed taking the under on the Patriots' win total as one of his best preseason bets. 'We like Mike Vrabel fine,' he wrote, 'but to hear people talk this offseason, the new Patriots coach is a combination of Vince Lombardi and Bill Belichick. … Quarterback Drake Maye and the young secondary of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III are fine, but overpaying new defensive players and bringing in (Stefon) Diggs and Shoeless Mack Hollins doesn't add up to nine wins.' Essentially, much of the national discussion comes down to this: Did a team that is 8-27 in its last 35 games really get so much better that it'll challenge that 8.5-win number this season? As the Patriots conduct their first training camp practice on Wednesday (after getting some good news on the injury front Tuesday), let's look at the reasons the Patriots are projected to at least double their win total from last season. LIVE: Mike Vrabel Press Conference 7/22: — New England Patriots (@Patriots) July 22, 2025 Even while recognizing how much the Patriots have improved both on and off the field, this is the most important place to start. Sometimes in the NFL, you're facing an uphill battle simply because of how the schedule shakes out. But the Pats are set up pretty favorably. Based on projected win totals, the Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL (only the 49ers' is easier). Based on last season's win percentage, they have the third-easiest schedule (only the 49ers' and Saints' are easier). But there's more. Individual games through an 18-week season are so variable that sports books generally don't offer odds for every single game in a season for more than just a brief moment to create headlines. But when those initial odds were posted, the Patriots were favorites in 11 of their 17 games. Advertisement So how then is the over/under only 8.5? That's because the Patriots were narrow favorites in a lot of games, like being favored by only 1.5 against the Steelers in Week 3, the Titans in Week 7 and the Jets in Week 17. Meanwhile, they're heavy underdogs in a few others, getting 8.5 points at Buffalo in Week 5 and at Baltimore in Week 16. Still, this is an easy schedule. They play the relatively weak NFC South as their NFC crossover and the AFC North as their in-conference crossover. That's in addition to a pair of easy games against the last-place finishers from the AFC South (Titans) and NFC East (Giants). Seemingly every year, there's a quarterback who takes a big leap forward in his second season. There are plenty of candidates to do it this season, including Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy. But why not Maye? The quarterback had the worst situation around him in the NFL last season and still passed the eye test with some high-level throws. If the O-line is stabilized after drafting Will Campbell (and signing Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses), Stefon Diggs gives them juice at wide receiver and Josh McDaniels gets more out of the offense, Maye could take a meaningful step forward. There are no definitive rankings of NFL coaching staffs considering all of the immeasurables inherent in the profession. But it's safe to assume the Patriots staff last year would have ranked 32nd in the NFL. It had inexperience across the board. Now, Vrabel brings an experienced and established group that also blends in younger coaches with time spent in a variety of schemes. Vrabel was arguably the most sought-after coach on the market this offseason for a reason. Simply going from Jerod Mayo to Vrabel is a big improvement and a reason for confidence when contemplating whether the Patriots can more than double their 2024 win total. Advertisement A roster that was devoid of talent at so many key spots last season gets a boon from highly drafted players at left tackle, running back and wide receiver, while also adding Diggs, DT Milton Williams, LB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis in free agency. That's not enough to make the Patriots a Super Bowl contender, but it's a meaningful improvement over what the team had last season. Training camp will go a long way in determining how many wins I ultimately predict for the Patriots, but for now, I'm on the fence between eight and nine. While the improved roster and Vrabel's addition help, the weak schedule is the biggest reason to expect more wins. Their non-division home games are against the Browns, Raiders, Steelers, Panthers, Falcons and Giants. Even if this roster isn't one that you'd normally look at and expect nine wins out of, the schedule is soft enough that you can expect them to double last season's win total.
