Is Alberta betting its climate goals on US trade chaos? Smith freezes carbon price amid tariff turmoil
As American tariffs rattle markets and industries brace for disruption, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is making a high-stakes gamble. By freezing the province's industrial carbon price at $95 per tonne—effective immediately—Smith hopes to shield Alberta's economy from external shocks. But critics warn it could cost the province more in the long run, both economically and environmentally.
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The decision, announced Monday, scrapped Alberta's planned carbon price hike to $110 by 2026, with a target of $170 by 2030. It's a bold departure from Canada's broader climate policy trajectory and one that may test the limits of provincial-federal cooperation—especially with Prime Minister Mark Carney set to announce his cabinet on Tuesday, May 13.
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Tariffs, trade, and transition risks
Framing the freeze as a defense of jobs and economic stability, Smith said escalating US tariffs were 'disrupting supply chains and creating uncertainty for industry.' Smith added that Alberta's energy producers are shaping 'the world's energy future,' and the province needs 'certainty, stability, and economic relief.'
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Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz echoed those concerns, claiming anything over $100 a tonne would render Alberta 'wildly uncompetitive.' Schulz stressed the freeze would benefit a wide range of carbon-intensive sectors from agriculture and forestry to petrochemicals and oil and gas.
The freeze positions Alberta as a contrarian voice in a country where most provinces are aligning with federal carbon benchmarks. Alberta, which has operated its own industrial carbon tax since 2007, reinvests the revenue in emissions-reduction projects and technology development.
Investment signal or red flag?
Industry voices, including the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers and the Pathways Alliance, have praised the move. They say carbon pricing, in its current form, threatens Canada's ability to compete globally. 'This announcement signals recognition of the pressures on our sector's competitiveness,' said Kendall Dilling of the Pathways Alliance.
However, environmental economists argue that regulatory uncertainty could deter long-term investment in low-carbon industries. Janetta McKenzie of the Pembina Institute warned that the freeze may trigger decreased investment in clean energy, especially as global partners move toward carbon border adjustment mechanisms.
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Environmental Defence's Stephen Legault suggested the freeze has more to do with appeasing profitable oil and gas firms than managing economic turbulence. Meanwhile, NDP energy critic Nagwan Al-Guneid accused Smith of fueling separatist rhetoric that further destabilizes investor confidence.
Despite the move, Smith insists Alberta remains committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. 'We have to be working with the federal government on having reasonable time frames as well as reasonable prices,' she said.
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