Up, Up, Down, Down: Lithium bounced back with a vengeance in July
Iron ore, coal and rare earths meanwhile also chugged along nicely
Gold picked up the pace from a flat June, bolstered by continued macro uncertainty
Up, Up, Down, Down provides a wrap of all the main commodities ASX companies are digging, including winners, losers and key supply-demand news.
WINNERS
Lithium
(Fastmarkets Carbonate CIF China, Japan and Korea)
Price: US$9080/t
% Change: +12.09%
UP
Commbank's mining and metals expert Vivek Dhar says lithium's price surge over the past month has been driven by China's efforts to curb overcapacity and price wars.
The rebound is also due to China's crackdown on illegal mining activities rather than increased demand from battery or EV manufacturers, Dhar said. Chinese authorities have been targeting environmental and licensing violations in key lithium provinces Jiangxi and Qinghai. He said the increase indicated the lithium price cycle had likely bottomed out, assuming China's crackdown reduces lithium supply.
DOWN
Dhar cautions about a potential pullback in prices due to latent lithium supply that could become available in response to higher prices, referring to projects that were delayed or put on hold following the price decline since the end of 2022.
While BloombergNEF anticipates the sale of ~22m battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles this year, up 25% from 2024, growth remains mixed across the board. According to Rho Motion's EV and Battery monthly database, the European market has grown 26% while sales in the North American market continue to wane. This is partly due to diminished regulatory support from the US.
Iron ore
(SGX Futures)
Price: US$99.76/t
% Change: +6.10%
UP
China's announcement that it will build a series of hydroelectric power plants with total capacity of 60 gigawatts on the Yarlung Tsangpo River sent the infrastructure into overdrive, which also served to drag iron ore up.
The China Iron and Steel Association also noted that pig iron and steel production in China had increased in July while steel stocks had declined year-on-year, an indication that demand had improved.
DOWN
Prices moderated at the end of July following an unexpected downturn in China's factory activity for July, which clouded the demand outlook for iron ore.
Ongoing issues in China's property sector and concerns about Trump's tariffs on the global economy could also slash iron ore demand and prices.
Rare earths
(NdPr Oxide)
Price: US$65.07/kg
% Change: +5.15%
UP
Strategic support like price floors is resetting price benchmarks with the most recent example coming out of the US following MP Materials' Pentagon deal guaranteeing a minimum NdPr price of US$110/kg for a decade. Resources Minister Madeline King said Australia was now also considering setting a price floor to support rare earth projects.
Flows of rare earths magnets from China to the US rose to 353t in June, up from just 46t in May according to the latest customs data, after China imposed export controls on rare earths magnets in April.
Greer stated that the US was "about halfway there" in making sure magnets from China could flow as freely as they did before China imposed export controls.
Coal
(Newcastle 6000 kcal)
Price: US$115.15/t
% Change: +4.77%
UP
Asian imports of seaborne coal rose by 12% in July to 70.66Mt though this was driven by the developed economies of North Asia – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – rather than China and India.
China and India are reducing imports of coal from Indonesia but are making up for it by buying more higher-energy and hence higher-priced coal from alternative sources.
DOWN
A slow down in global economic growth has already caused coal prices to fall in 2025 to date and may further weaken demand for the fossil fuel.
Clean energy growth in developed economies could also impact on coal demand, which will reduce prices.
Gold
Price: US$US3298.98/oz
% Change: 0.65%
UP
Gold prices have picked up the pace as expectations that the US will cut rates become increasingly certain.
The uncertainty generated by US President Donald Trump's economic policies also continued to provide support for prices of the precious metal as it always does with the economic outlook is uncertain. Post-July, Citi has walked back the previous reduction to its gold price target, restoring its US$3500/oz forecast over the next three months.
DOWN
Technical indicators have indicated the price to 36-month moving average has reached levels comparable to major market events such as the 1970s gold bull market and pre-2008 Global Financial Crisis period. Momentum indicators are also decreasing, which could suggest a potential cooling period ahead.
World Gold Council has flagged the precious metal could slip if widespread and sustained conflict resolution occurs, though it doesn't think that this is likely in the current environment.
LOSERS
Uranium
(Numerco)
Price: US$71/lb
% Change: -9.84%
Up
Expanding nuclear programs around the world are a sign of renewed strength in the market with China building six reactors, India advancing approvals for 21 units and Japan extending reactor lifespans beyond 60 years.
As AI data centres ramp up power needs, Sprott says uranium's long-term investment thesis will only get stronger.
Down
The price retreat reflects market expectations that SPUT will complete its 2.5Mlb inventory purchase program shortly, removing a key source of buying pressure.
E&P analysts forecast a modest surplus of 2-3% (~4-6Mlb annually) emerging in 2026-2027.
Copper
Price: US$9611/t
% Change: -2.61%
Up
US President Donald Trump's first wave of copper tariffs includes 50% import duties on semi processed products like wires, tubes and rods worth US$7.7bn last year, and cabling used for phone or internet connections. The White House also ordered officials to come up with a plan to slap tariffs on other copper-intensive manufactured goods in 90 days.
Chilean copper giant Codelco announced it has halted mining operations at its flagship El Teniente copper mine and postponed the release of quarterly results due to a collapse incident at the mine. The mine accounts for roughly a month's worth of ore supply for Chinese copper smelters.
Down
A major catalyst for the copper price drop is due to tariff trade changes including Trump's decision to exempt refined copper from his broader tariff implementation.
As a result, COMEX copper inventories have hit a 21-year high, soaring 170% to more than 253,000 short tons per exchange data.
OTHER METALS
Nickel
Price: US$14,987/t
%: -1.49%
Silver
Price: US$36.22/oz
%: +0.66%
Tin
Price: US$33,378/t %: -1.00%
Zinc
Price: US$2727/t %: -4.36%
Cobalt
Price: $US32,390/t %: 0%
Aluminium
Price: $2566/t %: -1.21%
Lead
Price: $1971.5/t %: -3.59%
Graphite
Price: US$410/t %: -1.20%
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
Shock fast food chain topples McDonald's as world's biggest
Forget McDonald's famed golden arches, Starbucks or KFC – a new player has emerged as the biggest fast food outlet in the world, overtaking the largest brands from the US. And you've probably never even heard of it. Chinese fast food chain Mixue Bingcheng, loosely translated in English as Honey Snow Ice City, has this year surpassed McDonald's to become the largest fast food retailer by number of stores. The ice cream and tea restaurants operate mostly in Asia, with some outlets in Australia and Brazil, and there are more than 46,000 stores globally – outnumbering the McDonald's outlets spread around the world. The company founded in 1997 has made a foray into Australia, with stores in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The first was in Sydney's World Square, which opened in 2023. It primarily caters to those with a sweet tooth, with affordable bubble tea, ice-cream and coffee offerings. Mixue also has a presence in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, The Philippines, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and other countries in Southeast Asia. The bulk of the stores, about 41,000, are located in China and are franchise-operated. It's an impressive level of expansion for a company that traces its origins to a street stall selling shaved ice and cold drinks in the inland Chinese city of Zhengzhou. Founder Zhang Hongchao, then a student, was alleged to have started the company with a 3000 yuan (about A$700) loan from his grandmother. Observers, commenting on the brand's meteoric rise across the Asia-Pacific, said the tea and ice cream empire has been built somewhat on a legacy of rock bottom prices. The company gained attention in the early 2000s for selling 1 yuan (20 cents) ice creams. Mixue has went on to sell close to half a billion ice creams in 2023 alone, according to The China Daily. Ray White Commercial retail expert Vanessa Rader said the rise of brands like Mixue represents a global power shift as customers become more accustomed and comfortable buying Chinese brands. 'We are not as afraid of Made in China anymore,' she said. 'Temu, Shein and companies like BYD, even Labubu, have shown that. 'Australia remains an attractive market for Chinese retailers to expand out of Asia. Logistically it is close and there are a lot of first generation Chinese migrants here, familiar with their brands. 'Our spending is also similar to consumers in Europe and the US, so goods can often be marked up … Australia can be a good test for how consumers may respond in bigger (Western) markets.' Mr Rader said takeaway tea, including bubble tea, has expanded rapidly as a category across Australia largely because of the concept's popularity and lower entry costs of doing business. 'With a McDonald's, you have to find a prime spot for it, which is half the battle, and there are a lot of overheads, a lot of staff are needed to run it. The outlay for tea is less. It's easier to expand faster.' Other Chinese fast food brands with a rising global presence include Luckin Coffee, which currently has more global stores than Domino's, Burger King or Pizza Hut – but is yet to come Down Under. There is also Chinese brand Wallace, which serves Western-style burgers and fried chicken, with an emphasis on affordability. With about 20,000 stores, primarily in China, Wallace is the eighth biggest chain in the world by volume of outlets, bigger than Krispy Kreme or Taco Bell. It should be noted, however, that American brands still dominate when it comes to revenue, with the reported earnings of KFC, McDonald's, Starbucks and Burger King dwarfing Chinese brands. Ms Rader said if more Chinese food franchises wanted to be successful in Australia they would need to avoid some of the mistakes other global brands made when setting up shop in the country. 'A lot of global brands that struggled in Australia set their prices too high. With cost of living, pricing is huge factor – even for brands that have a more premium offering. '(Takeout) food can often be viewed as a treat, but for customers to come back week after week, they have to feel like it's a treat they can easily afford.'
The Australian
an hour ago
- The Australian
AIM-listed Ariana Resources eyes ASX
Ariana Resources' ASX listing ambitions took a huge step forward with lodgement of its prospectus outlining an offer of 53.57m CDIs at 28c each for an IPO of $10-15m The offer follows the AIM-listed gold producer's fast-paced wholesale bookbuild to support its dual listing on the local market Funds will be put towards exploration at the feasibility-stage 1.1Moz Dokwe project, where Ariana aims to complete a DFS by mid-2026 Special Report: Gold producer Ariana Resources plc has filed its prospectus for its run at the ASX, offering CDIs at 28c each in its bid to raise a minimum of $10 million and a maximum of $15 million. The public offering has just opened ahead of Ariana's mid-September ASX debut. Lodgement of the prospectus follows a high-speed bookbuild for the company that's already listed on London's AIM with a strong register, including major miner Newmont. AIM-listed Ariana Resources is seeking a dual listing on the ASX as it launches an IPO raise a minimum of $10 million to fund progress at its Zimbabwe development asset and boost production across its gold portfolio. The company has lodged its prospectus with ASIC, outlining its plans to offer 53.57m CDIs at 28 cents apiece in an IPO led by Shaw and Partners and co-managed by Leeuwin Wealth. The offer has just opened and is set to close on 14 August. CDIs are a simple mechanism allowing international companies to list on the ASX and for Ariana the ratio of shares to CDI is ten to one. The offer price of 28c is equivalent to a 15.6 per cent discount to the last traded price on AIM on 25 July of 1.6 pence. It closed on 5 August at 1.7 pence. After the institutional bookbuild opened and closed within just a day last week, Ariana's market capitalisation implied by the offer is A$64 million. The company expects to start trading on the ASX on September 15 under the ticker AA2. Not your typical ASX explorer IPO Ariana already boasts a solid production base and development assets in Europe. It's also the 100 per cent owner of the Dokwe project, Zimbabwe's largest undeveloped gold project with a Measured, Indicated and Inferred JORC Resource of 1.1Moz. The company's current register includes Newmont, with the gold heavyweight currently a 4 per cent shareholder, whilst Ariana directors and management have their own skin in the game with a total of 24 per cent between them. The raise follows the recent run of success for juniors including Tali Resources (ASX:TR2), Ballard Mining (ASX:BM1) and Broken Hill Mines (ASX:BHM). All have surged on debut, mirroring strong interest in ASX listed goldies as the metal records a price rise of about 28 per cent this year. Strong track record Underpinning Ariana's robust support is production from the Kiziltepe gold-silver mine in Turkey, which has enabled the company to be consistently profitable since 2016 and pay GBP 7.74 million (A$15.8 million) in dividends since 2021. The 2024 depleted resource at Kiziltepe stands at 3.3Mt at 1.63 grams per tonne (g/t) gold for 171,700oz. Annual production in 2024 was 20,866oz. The nearby Tavsan mine is nearing its first gold pour with its processing plant expected to achieve operational status by the end of this month. Ongoing resource and exploration drilling is also under way at Tavsan, which boasted a 2024 Resource of 7.7mt at 1.26 g/t for 311,000oz of gold. Way to grow Ariana will put the IPO funds towards advancing its portfolio of projects, but it's at the Dokwe gold project the company is looking for material growth. Just 110km from Zimbabwe's second city Bulawayo, Dokwe has a current JORC resource of 1.1Moz and a definitive feasibility study (DFS) scheduled to be released by mid 2026. The company released an updated pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the Dokwe North deposit in June 2025, based on a conservative gold price of US$2,750/oz. This yielded a post-tax Net Present Value (10%) of US$354 million and a healthy 75 per cent internal rate of return. Current production projections are for 60,000oz annually, but Ariana is examining ways to increase this to up to 100,000oz per year over a 10-year mine life as it progresses the DFS. Multi-million ounce potential Key to its resource growth outlook is a significant gold and soil anomaly Ariana identified just 125 metres northeast of the Dokwe North planned pit rim in July. This indicates the potential for additional discoveries within close range of the planned development for Dokwe to host a multi-million-ounce exploration and development opportunity. The area is now a priority for drill testing. Managing director Dr Kerim Sener said: 'Similar systems are evident in exposed sections of the belt, and we believe this region remains one of the most prospective, yet underexplored gold provinces in southern Africa. 'This latest discovery is an exciting new development for Dokwe, which could greatly improve our plans for the project.' Also importantly, the newly updated economic model does not yet factor in the Dokwe Central resource as it had not been estimated in accordance with JORC 2012 at the time of the PFS release. This article was developed in collaboration with Ariana Resources, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing. This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
Australia must work with other countries to protect artists amid AI boom, senior opposition senator says
Australia alone cannot protect the country's content makers from data-ravenous artificial intelligence and must work with other countries, opposition finance spokesman James Paterson says. The warning comes as artists sound the alarm over AI models feeding off their works to continue advancing. AI itself cannot produce original content, so it must be trained using whatever humans have created. It also scrapes as much data from as many sources as it can to answer queries, including news organisations. The models are usually monetised by their big tech backers, such as OpenAI, Google and Meta, without compensation to people doing the heavy lifting. Echoing Productivity Commission recommendations, Senator Paterson said on Thursday the answer was not more regulation. 'I think we need to be mindful of the fact that Australia is a medium power, that we're not the main source of innovation and development in this industry, that most of these companies are headquartered overseas, either in Silicon Valley, or indeed in China, or elsewhere in the world, and our ability to regulate them is limited,' Senator Paterson told Sky News. 'I think it would be far better if we work with governments of aligned thinking to work on this collectively in a way that is enforceable against these companies, which are enormous and which have their own intellectual property which they can quickly move from jurisdiction to jurisdiction to find the most attractive settings and the most attractive policy settings that allow them to flourish and to innovate. 'And if Australia just becomes a hostile jurisdiction to that, then we don't win from that, we only lose from it.' Australian rock legend Peter Garrett is among the most vocal Australian artists pushing for tighter rules on AI. He said the idea of tech firms using his music to train AI without his consent was 'horrifying' and called it a 'massive breach of copyright'. Garrett has also advocated for 'robust laws to ensure copyright holders are adequately remunerated, licenses applied and transparency around the actual processes used when a creator's work is exploited'. Australia has managed to strike deals with American tech titans to compensate media companies for content shared on their social media platforms, so there is precedent. But AI is still very much an emerging technology and most governments and businesses have not worked out an economic road map for it. To make matters more complex, non-Western countries have proven capable of producing competitive alternatives, such as China's DeepSeek. China is a notoriously difficult country to enforce copyright. In a report released this week, the Productivity Commission warned against taking a 'heavy-handed' approach to AI regulation, saying to do so could stifle innovation and cause Australia to fall behind other countries. Instead, it recommended making existing regulations fit-for-purpose. That included plugging gaps around consumer protection, privacy, and copyright. The commission said AI-specific regulation should only be considered as a 'last resort' for specific use cases where existing laws were clearly insufficient to mitigate harms. It also called for a pause on mandatory 'guardrails' for high-risk AI until the reviews of existing regulations were complete.
